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ALGM

Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. Technology As of 2026-07-31 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, premium valuation.

2 active signals
Filed revenue acceleration EPS surprise beat
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 21Quality 51Growth 47Momentum 48Risk / liquidity 52

Is Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Quality is weaker than peers. Operating margin is only around the 49th percentile. TTM ROE is about 1.5%.

  • Valuation is expensive. TTM P/E is in the 99th percentile, above most peers.

  • Recent volatility is elevated. 60-day annualized volatility is in the 84th percentile. Average 20-day dollar volume is about $132.8M.

  • Signals are active now. Filed revenue acceleration, EPS surprise beat currently holds; the tables below show what followed in this stock’s own history.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

Filed revenue acceleration

Active · now 24.221134299506765%

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

8 historical occurrences (since 2021-10-29)
Average forward return after Filed revenue acceleration。20-day: Win 42.9%, Sample 7, Median -4.62%, Excess +4.89%, Beat mkt rate 42.9%；60-day: Win 33.3%, Sample 6, Median -12.47%, Excess -9.96%, Beat mkt rate 16.7%；120-day: Win 33.3%, Sample 6, Median -20.2%, Excess -12.48%, Beat mkt rate 33.3%

120 days after: historical avg -11.39%

20-day +3.71%
60-day -10.96%
120-day -11.39%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
42.9%
33.3%
33.3%
Sample
7
6
6
Median
-4.62%
-12.47%
-20.2%
Excess
+4.89%
-9.96%
-12.48%
Beat mkt rate
42.9%
16.7%
33.3%

Over 6 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 11.39%, lagged the market by 12.48 pts; win rate 33.3%.

EPS surprise beat

Active · now 9.523809523809533%

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

20 historical occurrences (since 2021-02-02)
Average forward return after EPS surprise beat。20-day: Win 57.9%, Sample 19, Median +4.12%, Excess +1.62%, Beat mkt rate 47.4%；60-day: Win 50%, Sample 18, Median -2.09%, Excess -1.57%, Beat mkt rate 38.9%；120-day: Win 61.1%, Sample 18, Median +9.68%, Excess +4.27%, Beat mkt rate 50%

120 days after: historical avg +10.81%

20-day +3.06%
60-day +0.41%
120-day +10.81%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
57.9%
50%
61.1%
Sample
19
18
18
Median
+4.12%
-2.09%
+9.68%
Excess
+1.62%
-1.57%
+4.27%
Beat mkt rate
47.4%
38.9%
50%

Over 18 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 10.81%, beat the market by 4.27 pts; win rate 61.1%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 5Insufficient data
20-40 0Insufficient data
40-60 0Insufficient data
60-80 0Insufficient data
80-100 You are here0Insufficient data

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 587.82, placing it in the 100.0 own-history percentile, inside the 80-100 bucket.

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
-19.5%
Win rate 10.9% Excess -30%
46d
Insufficient data
(0d)
Insufficient data
(0d)
60-day momentum down
-3.2%
Win rate 40.5% Excess -17.4%
79d
Insufficient data
(0d)
Now
Insufficient data
(0d)

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 97,878 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.26%, a 58.3% positive-return rate, and +2.90 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

7 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.33%, win rate 50%, beating the market by -3.6 pts on average.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Pending

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

11 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.62%, win rate 54.5%, beating the market by +1.16 pts on average.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.