Skip to main content

ARCC Ares Capital Corporation

Financial Services

19.11 Close 10/30
Since 2024-12-02 +4.4%
Open
19.19
High
19.20
Low
18.98
Prev close
19.12
Volume
5.1M
Amplitude
1.15%
P/E
15.7
P/B
1.0
Revenue YoY (TTM)
+30.4%
52W 17.40 21.14

Is Ares Capital Corporation a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

As of 2026-10-30

Valuation: Fair, Quality: Strong, Growth: Good, Momentum: Good, Risk / liquidity: Strong.

Valuation Fair Free-cash-flow yield is Top; TTM P/E is Fair.
TTM P/E 15.66 43th percentile Fair
Price / book 0.99 31th percentile Fair
Free-cash-flow yield (%) 12.68 86th percentile Top
US Stock Backtest in Python: Price-to-Book Ratio StrategyQuality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Quality Strong Operating margin, TTM is Top; ROE, TTM is Good.
ROE, TTM (%) 6.27 56th percentile Good
Operating margin, TTM (%) 70.64 95th percentile Top
FCF margin, TTM (%) 59.75 94th percentile Top
Quality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Growth Good Revenue growth, TTM YoY is Top, but Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY is Average.
Revenue growth, TTM YoY (%) 30.35 81th percentile Top
Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY (%) -39 39th percentile Average
Momentum Good All 2 indicators are Good.
60-day return (%) -0.19 67th percentile Good
240-day return (%) 4.48 57th percentile Good
Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
Risk / liquidity Strong All 2 indicators are Top.
20-day dollar volume 84,808,987 86th percentile Top
60-day annualized volatility (%) 15.63 15th percentile Top
Factor Investing Explained: 10 Classic Factors in US Stocks

Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) today

1 quant signals active · As of 2026-10-30

Win rate and excess are historical post-trigger stats vs the market. Click a signal for its full definition and samples; history does not predict future results.

FinLab Studio

From Ares Capital Corporation to every stock like it

AI finds several complementary traits of Ares Capital Corporation across different dimensions, combines them into a multifactor strategy, and backtests it against the market.

Screen stocks like Ares Capital Corporation

Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) peers and tracking

Watchlist

This page refreshes daily after the close. Add Ares Capital Corporation to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.

Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) quant signal backtests

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

Filed revenue acceleration

Active · now 30.35%

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

9 historical occurrences (since 2018-05-02)

Average forward return after Filed revenue acceleration

20-day: Win 75%, Sample 8, Median +2.32%, Excess -0.17%, Beat mkt rate 37.5%

60-day: Win 75%, Sample 8, Median +4%, Excess -1.24%, Beat mkt rate 25%

120-day: Win 85.7%, Sample 7, Median +6.72%, Excess -0.32%, Beat mkt rate 42.9%

120 days after: historical avg +6.48%

20-day +2.37%
60-day +3.14%
120-day +6.48%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
75%
75%
85.7%
Sample
8
8
7
Median
+2.32%
+4%
+6.72%
Excess
-0.17%
-1.24%
-0.32%
Beat mkt rate
37.5%
25%
42.9%

Over 7 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 6.48%, lagged the market by 0.32 pts; win rate 85.7%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 308+13% +4% 67.9% +13.6%
20-40 394+12% +13.5% 86.8% -3.8%
40-60 169+5.5% +4.6% 68.6% -11.8%
60-80 248+7.6% +13.2% 64.9% -13.1%
80-100 You are here262+33.9% +29.7% 100% +10.6%

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 15.66, placing it in the 92.3 own-history percentile, inside the 80-100 bucket.

More history: Valuation × momentum analogs, Market-wide momentum baseline, Signals not active now

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
+4.8%
Win rate 75% Excess +3.9%
416d
+2.4%
Win rate 73.1% Excess -5.3%
297d
+12.5%
Win rate 89.3% Excess +0.7%
335d
60-day momentum down
+17.5%
Win rate 90.2% Excess +4.9%
164d
+2.7%
Win rate 54.2% Excess -8.4%
192d
Now
+17.3%
Win rate 85.6% Excess +8.1%
97d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top third) × 60-day momentum down”: across 97 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 17.3%, win rate 85.6%, beat the market by 8.1%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 99,493 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.42%, a 58.4% positive-return rate, and +3.08 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

26 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.11%, win rate 69.2%, beating the market by -0.51 pts on average.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Pending

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest

EPS surprise beat

Pending

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

PEAD: Post-Earnings Announcement Drift Backtest

15 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.87%, win rate 61.5%, beating the market by -0.71 pts on average.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.