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CSTM

Constellium SE Basic Materials As of 2026-06-18
Quality Above avg
Valuation Fair
Risk Moderate
Active signals Active Top-quintile 6-month momentum Filed revenue acceleration
34 Close (USD)
+37.93% 60-day
  • Quality is above average. Operating margin sits near the 50th percentile. TTM ROE is about 38.9%.
  • Valuation is middle-of-pack. TTM P/E is near the 60th percentile.
  • Recent volatility is moderate. 60-day annualized volatility is near the 69th percentile. Average 20-day dollar volume is about $75.3M.
  • Signals are active now. Top-quintile 6-month momentum, Filed revenue acceleration currently holds; the tables below show what followed in this stock’s own history.

Factor profile

Factor radar Neutral Valuation
41
ValuationQualityGrowthMomentumRisk / liquidity

Valuation

Indicators in this group are ranked by market percentile; lower valuation and volatility are better.

41 Neutral
TTM P/E 11
Pricey
Price / book 4.11
Pricey
Free-cash-flow yield (%) 3.8
Good

Historical evidence

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 90.16949152542372%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

25 historical occurrences (since 2016-08-15)
Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum。20-day: Win 56%, Sample 25, Median +0.73%, Excess +4.73%, Beat mkt rate 52%；60-day: Win 68%, Sample 25, Median +14.69%, Excess +12.06%, Beat mkt rate 56%；120-day: Win 75%, Sample 24, Median +25.8%, Excess +17.52%, Beat mkt rate 62.5%

120 days after: historical avg +26.38%

20-day +6.41%
60-day +15.91%
120-day +26.38%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
56%
68%
75%
Sample
25
25
24
Median
+0.73%
+14.69%
+25.8%
Excess
+4.73%
+12.06%
+17.52%
Beat mkt rate
52%
56%
62.5%

Over 24 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 26.38%, beat the market by 17.52 pts; win rate 75%.

Filed revenue acceleration

Active · now 27.965190267899477%

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

7 historical occurrences (since 2019-04-24)
Average forward return after Filed revenue acceleration。20-day: Win 28.6%, Sample 7, Median -2.17%, Excess -3.44%, Beat mkt rate 42.9%；60-day: Win 50%, Sample 6, Median -2.8%, Excess -2.03%, Beat mkt rate 33.3%；120-day: Win 20%, Sample 5, Median -11.24%, Excess -7.42%, Beat mkt rate 20%

120 days after: historical avg -8.14%

20-day -2.71%
60-day -2.6%
120-day -8.14%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
28.6%
50%
20%
Sample
7
6
5
Median
-2.17%
-2.8%
-11.24%
Excess
-3.44%
-2.03%
-7.42%
Beat mkt rate
42.9%
33.3%
20%

Over 5 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 8.14%, lagged the market by 7.42 pts; win rate 20%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 173+27.1% +29.8% 75.1% +16.5%
20-40 You are here215+15.2% +23.6% 69.3% +3.1%
40-60 210+25.4% +0.5% 50.5% +7.1%
60-80 277+24.3% -35.3% 33.2% +5.1%
80-100 0Insufficient data

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 11.00, placing it in the 33.1 own-history percentile, inside the 20-40 bucket.

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
Now
+9%
Win rate 76.6% Excess +3.7%
154d
+19%
Win rate 69.8% Excess +7%
212d
+33%
Win rate 76.3% Excess +24.1%
169d
60-day momentum down
+0.2%
Win rate 47.7% Excess +0.9%
218d
-2%
Win rate 48.6% Excess -8.3%
220d
Insufficient data
(22d)

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom third) × 60-day momentum up”: across 154 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 9%, win rate 76.6%, beat the market by 3.7%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 94,737 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.40%, a 58.3% positive-return rate, and +3.10 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

17 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.99%, win rate 62.5%, beating the market by -0.29 pts on average.

EPS surprise beat

Pending

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

20 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7.76%, win rate 55.6%, beating the market by +4.94 pts on average.

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Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.