CWST Casella Waste Systems, Inc.
- Open
- 92.34
- High
- 93.64
- Low
- 87.93
- Prev close
- 93.71
- Volume
- 691.9K
- Amplitude
- 6.09%
- P/E
- 1005.5
- P/B
- 3.8
- Revenue YoY (TTM)
- +13.6%
Is Casella Waste Systems, Inc. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
As of 2026-10-27
Momentum: Good, Risk / liquidity: Good; Valuation: Pricey.
Valuation Pricey Free-cash-flow yield is Good, but TTM P/E is Expensive.
Quality Neutral FCF margin, TTM is Good, but ROE, TTM is Average.
Growth Neutral Revenue growth, TTM YoY is Good, but Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY is Average.
Momentum Good All 2 indicators are Good.
Risk / liquidity Good 20-day dollar volume is Top; 60-day annualized volatility is Good.
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Casella Waste Systems, Inc. (CWST) quant signal backtests
Valuation regime and forward returns
Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 66 | +13.7% | +11.1% | 100% | +18.7% |
| 20-40 | 140 | +2.6% | +3.5% | 62.1% | +15.9% |
| 40-60 | 135 | +5.4% | +5.3% | 71.1% | -13.7% |
| 60-80 | 293 | +13.6% | +13.2% | 74.4% | -0.5% |
| 80-100 You are here | 508 | +0.2% | -4.9% | 42.7% | -17.1% |
Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.
Current TTM P/E is about 1005.47, placing it in the 96.8 own-history percentile, inside the 80-100 bucket.
More history: Valuation × momentum analogs, Market-wide momentum baseline, Signals not active now
Valuation × momentum analogs
Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.
Currently in “Expensive (own-history top third) × 60-day momentum up”: across 494 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 0.3%, win rate 55.3%, lagged the market by 8.1%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Market-wide momentum baseline
Across 99,332 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.50%, a 58.5% positive-return rate, and +3.14 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.
Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).
Signals not active now
Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.
52-week adjusted-price high
PendingAdjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.
33 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.16%, win rate 63.6%, beating the market by +1.1 pts on average.
Top-quintile 6-month momentum
PendingThe stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.
25 times historically; 60-day forward avg +8.34%, win rate 76%, beating the market by +6.16 pts on average.
Filed revenue acceleration
PendingTTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.
14 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.18%, win rate 50%, beating the market by +1.84 pts on average.
EPS surprise beat
PendingReported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.
28 times historically; 60-day forward avg +6.86%, win rate 64%, beating the market by +3.09 pts on average.
Method and limits
- Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
- Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
- Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
- The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
- Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
- Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.
This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.