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DUOL Duolingo, Inc.

Technology

steady quality, fair valuation.

Quality
Above avg
Valuation
Fair
Key signals
Top-quintile 6-month momentum
147.10
147.1 Close (USD) Loading candles…

Is Duolingo, Inc. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Quality is above average. Operating margin sits near the 65th percentile. TTM ROE is about 30.4%.

  • Valuation is middle-of-pack. TTM P/E is near the 70th percentile.

  • Recent volatility is elevated. 60-day annualized volatility is in the 71th percentile. Average 20-day dollar volume is about $163.1M.

  • Signals are active now. Top-quintile 6-month momentum currently holds; the tables below show what followed in this stock’s own history.

Watchlist

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Historical evidence

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 86.94915254237287%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

15 historical occurrences (since 2022-07-07)
Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum。20-day: Win 53.3%, Sample 15, Median +1.41%, Excess +3.96%, Beat mkt rate 60%；60-day: Win 57.1%, Sample 14, Median +14.63%, Excess +1.07%, Beat mkt rate 57.1%；120-day: Win 64.3%, Sample 14, Median +11.96%, Excess +2.41%, Beat mkt rate 64.3%

120 days after: historical avg +10.66%

20-day +6.29%
60-day +6.7%
120-day +10.66%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
53.3%
57.1%
64.3%
Sample
15
14
14
Median
+1.41%
+14.63%
+11.96%
Excess
+3.96%
+1.07%
+2.41%
Beat mkt rate
60%
57.1%
64.3%

Over 14 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 10.66%, beat the market by 2.41 pts; win rate 64.3%.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 98,498 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.12%, a 57.9% positive-return rate, and +2.77 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

8 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.92%, win rate 50%, beating the market by -5.93 pts on average.

Filed revenue acceleration

Pending

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

6 times historically; 60-day forward avg -15.68%, win rate 16.7%, beating the market by -17.68 pts on average.

EPS surprise beat

Pending

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

18 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7%, win rate 58.8%, beating the market by +2.94 pts on average.

Continue researching Duolingo, Inc. with the evidence above.

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Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.