Filed revenue acceleration
Active · now 11.496036284001022%TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.
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HSY
The Hershey Company Consumer Defensive As of 2026-07-31 Updated daily after market close
steady quality, premium valuation.
2 active signals
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add The Hershey Company to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Is The Hershey Company a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Quality is above average. Operating margin sits near the 65th percentile. TTM ROE is about 23.1%.
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Valuation is expensive. TTM P/E is in the 83th percentile, above most peers.
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Recent volatility is moderate. 60-day annualized volatility is near the 31th percentile. Average 20-day dollar volume is about $324.1M.
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Signals are active now. Filed revenue acceleration, EPS surprise beat currently holds; the tables below show what followed in this stock’s own history.
Historical evidence
Signals active now
Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.
EPS surprise beat
Active · now 32.86713286713287%Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.
Average forward return after EPS surprise beat。20-day: Win 63.6%, Sample 22, Median +1.16%, Excess +0.48%, Beat mkt rate 40.9%；60-day: Win 59.1%, Sample 22, Median +0.95%, Excess -2.52%, Beat mkt rate 36.4%；120-day: Win 47.6%, Sample 21, Median -0.37%, Excess -7.47%, Beat mkt rate 28.6%
120 days after: historical avg +0.67%
20-day +1.39%
60-day +0.86%
120-day +0.67%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
63.6%
59.1%
47.6%
Sample
22
22
21
Median
+1.16%
+0.95%
-0.37%
Excess
+0.48%
-2.52%
-7.47%
Beat mkt rate
40.9%
36.4%
28.6%
Over 21 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 0.67%, lagged the market by 7.47 pts; win rate 47.6%.
Valuation regime and forward returns
Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.
0-20 +5.7%
20-40 Insufficient data
40-60 -6.9%
60-80 -10.4% Now
80-100 -8.9%
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 288 | +5.7% | +3.8% | 60.1% | -10.9% |
| 20-40 | 14 | Insufficient data | |||
| 40-60 | 70 | -6.9% | -6.4% | 11.4% | -31.4% |
| 60-80 You are here | 116 | -10.4% | -9.4% | 5.2% | -32.2% |
| 80-100 | 330 | -8.9% | -16.9% | 26.4% | -25% |
Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.
Current TTM P/E is about 32.60, placing it in the 71.0 own-history percentile, inside the 60-80 bucket.
Valuation × momentum analogs
Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
+2.3%
158d
+0.3%
89d
-3.3%
255d
60-day momentum down
-0.3%
181d
+1.4%
147d
Now
-4.1%
108d
Currently in “Expensive (own-history top third) × 60-day momentum down”: across 108 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 4.1%, win rate 43.5%, lagged the market by 12%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Market-wide momentum baseline
Across 97,878 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.26%, a 58.3% positive-return rate, and +2.90 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.
Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).
Signals not active now
Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.
52-week adjusted-price high
PendingAdjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.
20 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.3%, win rate 55%, beating the market by +0.74 pts on average.
Top-quintile 6-month momentum
PendingThe stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.
14 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.38%, win rate 71.4%, beating the market by +1.32 pts on average.
Method and limits
- Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
- Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
- Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
- The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
- Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
- Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.
This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.