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HSY The Hershey Company

Consumer Defensive

171.25 +5.64 +3.41% Close 11/2
Since 2024-12-02 -1.6%
Open
167.60
High
171.40
Low
166.50
Prev close
165.61
Volume
2M
Amplitude
2.96%
P/E
18.7
P/B
5.0
Revenue YoY (TTM)
+6.7%
52W 156.16 239.48

Is The Hershey Company a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

As of 2026-10-30

Quality: Good, Growth: Good, Risk / liquidity: Strong; Valuation: Pricey.

Valuation Pricey Free-cash-flow yield is Top, but Price / book is Expensive.
TTM P/E 18.73 50th percentile Fair
Price / book 4.98 82th percentile Expensive
Free-cash-flow yield (%) 9.7 81th percentile Top
US Stock Backtest in Python: Price-to-Book Ratio StrategyQuality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Quality Good ROE, TTM is Top; Operating margin, TTM is Good.
ROE, TTM (%) 36.79 89th percentile Top
Operating margin, TTM (%) 20.27 72th percentile Good
FCF margin, TTM (%) 19.2 75th percentile Good
Quality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Growth Good All 2 indicators are Good.
Revenue growth, TTM YoY (%) 6.69 53th percentile Good
Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY (%) 32.14 72th percentile Good
Momentum Neutral All 2 indicators are Average.
60-day return (%) -8.8 45th percentile Average
240-day return (%) -4.79 45th percentile Average
Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
Risk / liquidity Strong 20-day dollar volume is Top; 60-day annualized volatility is Good.
20-day dollar volume 266,398,343 94th percentile Top
60-day annualized volatility (%) 23.88 26th percentile Good
Factor Investing Explained: 10 Classic Factors in US Stocks

The Hershey Company (HSY) today

1 quant signals active · As of 2026-10-30

Win rate and excess are historical post-trigger stats vs the market. Click a signal for its full definition and samples; history does not predict future results.

FinLab Studio

From The Hershey Company to every stock like it

AI finds several complementary traits of The Hershey Company across different dimensions, combines them into a multifactor strategy, and backtests it against the market.

Screen stocks like The Hershey Company

The Hershey Company (HSY) peers and tracking

Watchlist

This page refreshes daily after the close. Add The Hershey Company to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.

The Hershey Company (HSY) quant signal backtests

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

EPS surprise beat

Active · now 25.12%

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

PEAD: Post-Earnings Announcement Drift Backtest
25 historical occurrences (since 2015-08-07)

Average forward return after EPS surprise beat

20-day: Win 69.6%, Sample 23, Median +1.98%, Excess +0.99%, Beat mkt rate 47.8%

60-day: Win 60.9%, Sample 23, Median +0.75%, Excess -2.09%, Beat mkt rate 39.1%

120-day: Win 63.6%, Sample 22, Median +0.54%, Excess -6.78%, Beat mkt rate 27.3%

120 days after: historical avg +1.43%

20-day +2.05%
60-day +1.25%
120-day +1.43%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
69.6%
60.9%
63.6%
Sample
23
23
22
Median
+1.98%
+0.75%
+0.54%
Excess
+0.99%
-2.09%
-6.78%
Beat mkt rate
47.8%
39.1%
27.3%

Over 22 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 1.43%, lagged the market by 6.78 pts; win rate 63.6%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 You are here288+8.9% +7.3% 64.9% -7.6%
20-40 75-2.8% -3.3% 42.7% -19%
40-60 73-4.3% -4.6% 28.8% -28.4%
60-80 116-7.9% -7.2% 13.8% -29.7%
80-100 330-7.1% -15.3% 27.3% -23.3%

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 18.73, placing it in the 6.1 own-history percentile, inside the 0-20 bucket.

More history: Valuation × momentum analogs, Market-wide momentum baseline, Signals not active now

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
+3.3%
Win rate 60.6% Excess -6.8%
170d
+1.6%
Win rate 62.9% Excess -6.5%
97d
-4.6%
Win rate 47.9% Excess -10.4%
305d
60-day momentum down
Now
+1.5%
Win rate 50.9% Excess -3.5%
169d
+2.9%
Win rate 72.7% Excess -11.2%
139d
-4.8%
Win rate 36.1% Excess -12.5%
122d

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom third) × 60-day momentum down”: across 169 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 1.5%, win rate 50.9%, lagged the market by 3.5%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 99,493 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.42%, a 58.4% positive-return rate, and +3.08 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

24 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.61%, win rate 54.2%, beating the market by +0.78 pts on average.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Pending

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest

13 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.33%, win rate 76.9%, beating the market by +1.23 pts on average.

Filed revenue acceleration

Pending

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.