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NOG
strong quality, discounted valuation, no active signal today.
Is Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Quality is top-tier. Operating margin ranks above roughly 81% of the liquid US common-stock universe. TTM ROE is about -34.9%.
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Valuation is cheaper than most peers. TTM P/E is in the 26th percentile, lower than most liquid US common stocks.
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Recent volatility is moderate. 60-day annualized volatility is near the 51th percentile. Average 20-day dollar volume is about $75.2M.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and forward returns
Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 0 | Insufficient data | |||
| 20-40 | 5 | Insufficient data | |||
| 40-60 | 50 | -13.9% | -30.7% | 32% | -32.2% |
| 60-80 | 215 | -29.8% | -30.7% | 3.3% | -43.4% |
| 80-100 You are here | 0 | Insufficient data | |||
Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.
Current TTM P/E is about 70.67, placing it in the 96.2 own-history percentile, inside the 80-100 bucket.
Valuation × momentum analogs
Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.
(0d)
(17d)
Currently in “Expensive (own-history top third) × 60-day momentum up”: across 44 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 4.5%, win rate 43.2%, lagged the market by 14.5%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Market-wide momentum baseline
Across 96,215 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.34%, a 58.2% positive-return rate, and +2.98 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.
Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).
Signals not active now
Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.
52-week adjusted-price high
PendingAdjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.
12 times historically; 60-day forward avg -1.5%, win rate 50%, beating the market by -2.4 pts on average.
Top-quintile 6-month momentum
PendingThe stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.
17 times historically; 60-day forward avg -7.86%, win rate 47.1%, beating the market by -6.87 pts on average.
Filed revenue acceleration
PendingTTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.
11 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.97%, win rate 36.4%, beating the market by +4.71 pts on average.
EPS surprise beat
PendingReported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.
29 times historically; 60-day forward avg +13.43%, win rate 50%, beating the market by +9.16 pts on average.
Method and limits
- Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
- Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
- Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
- The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
- Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
- Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.
This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.