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PAG Penske Automotive Group, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical

211.95 -0.20 -0.10% Close 10/28
Since 2024-11-26 +33.8%
Open
212.48
High
212.48
Low
211.88
Prev close
212.15
Volume
645K
Amplitude
0.28%
P/E
15.6
P/B
2.4
Revenue YoY (TTM)
+7.7%
52W 140.12 227.00

Is Penske Automotive Group, Inc. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

As of 2026-10-27

Valuation: Fair, Growth: Good, Momentum: Good, Risk / liquidity: Strong.

Valuation Fair Free-cash-flow yield is Good, but Price / book is Pricey.
TTM P/E 15.62 43th percentile Fair
Price / book 2.39 65th percentile Pricey
Free-cash-flow yield (%) 3.83 62th percentile Good
Quality Neutral ROE, TTM is Good, but FCF margin, TTM is Average.
ROE, TTM (%) 16.05 78th percentile Good
Operating margin, TTM (%) 3.78 44th percentile Average
FCF margin, TTM (%) 1.62 43th percentile Average
Growth Good All 2 indicators are Good.
Revenue growth, TTM YoY (%) 7.65 55th percentile Good
Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY (%) -5.43 53th percentile Good
Momentum Good 240-day return is Top; 60-day return is Good.
60-day return (%) -1.82 60th percentile Good
240-day return (%) 38.79 83th percentile Top
Risk / liquidity Strong 20-day dollar volume is Top; 60-day annualized volatility is Good.
20-day dollar volume 140,982,515 90th percentile Top
60-day annualized volatility (%) 22.85 25th percentile Good

Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG) today

1 quant signals active · As of 2026-10-27

Win rate and excess are historical post-trigger stats vs the market. Click a signal for its full definition and samples; history does not predict future results.

FinLab Studio

From Penske Automotive Group, Inc. to every stock like it

AI finds several complementary traits of Penske Automotive Group, Inc. across different dimensions, combines them into a multifactor strategy, and backtests it against the market.

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Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG) peers and tracking

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Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG) quant signal backtests

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 85.07%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

23 historical occurrences (since 2016-09-13)

Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum

20-day: Win 63.6%, Sample 22, Median +2.93%, Excess +1.64%, Beat mkt rate 63.6%

60-day: Win 66.7%, Sample 21, Median +6.31%, Excess +4.11%, Beat mkt rate 52.4%

120-day: Win 70%, Sample 20, Median +8.67%, Excess +6.87%, Beat mkt rate 70%

120 days after: historical avg +12.46%

20-day +2.64%
60-day +8.96%
120-day +12.46%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
63.6%
66.7%
70%
Sample
22
21
20
Median
+2.93%
+6.31%
+8.67%
Excess
+1.64%
+4.11%
+6.87%
Beat mkt rate
63.6%
52.4%
70%

Over 20 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 12.46%, beat the market by 6.87 pts; win rate 70%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 177+68.7% +49.4% 100% +52.7%
20-40 262+39.4% +25.3% 95.4% +35.6%
40-60 233+28.5% +11% 93.1% +11.9%
60-80 323+21% +8.5% 79.9% +1.4%
80-100 You are here446+25.8% +15.1% 93.5% +7.9%

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 15.62, placing it in the 98.1 own-history percentile, inside the 80-100 bucket.

More history: Valuation × momentum analogs, Market-wide momentum baseline, Signals not active now

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
+14.9%
Win rate 92.3% Excess +16.4%
221d
+14%
Win rate 66.7% Excess +4.7%
240d
+15%
Win rate 68.3% Excess +5%
508d
60-day momentum down
+33.2%
Win rate 100% Excess +29.1%
156d
+18.6%
Win rate 87.2% Excess +5.2%
164d
Now
+12.4%
Win rate 82.4% Excess +2.9%
272d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top third) × 60-day momentum down”: across 272 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 12.4%, win rate 82.4%, beat the market by 2.9%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 99,332 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.50%, a 58.5% positive-return rate, and +3.14 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

20 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.17%, win rate 50%, beating the market by -1.71 pts on average.

Filed revenue acceleration

Pending

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

5 times historically; 60-day forward avg +6.34%, win rate 60%, beating the market by +10.16 pts on average.

EPS surprise beat

Pending

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

18 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.66%, win rate 50%, beating the market by +4.07 pts on average.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.