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PARR Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.

Energy

84.70

Close 10/21

P/E
4.9
P/B
2.8
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Is Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

As of 2026-10-21

Valuation: Fair, Quality: Good, Momentum: Strong; Growth: Weak.

Valuation Fair TTM P/E is Cheap, but Price / book is Pricey.
TTM P/E 4.94 8th percentile Cheap
Price / book 2.81 69th percentile Pricey
Free-cash-flow yield (%) 10.35 83th percentile Top
Quality Good ROE, TTM is Top; FCF margin, TTM is Good.
ROE, TTM (%) 56.69 92th percentile Top
Operating margin, TTM (%) 14.25 64th percentile Good
FCF margin, TTM (%) 5.09 51th percentile Good
Growth Weak Revenue growth, TTM YoY is Good, but Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY is Lagging.
Revenue growth, TTM YoY (%) 13.19 67th percentile Good
Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY (%) -6,221.43 1th percentile Lagging
Momentum Strong 240-day return is Top; 60-day return is Good.
60-day return (%) 7.09 80th percentile Good
240-day return (%) 125.09 97th percentile Top
Risk / liquidity Neutral 20-day dollar volume is Top, but 60-day annualized volatility is Average.
20-day dollar volume 65,046,961 84th percentile Top
60-day annualized volatility (%) 63.68 66th percentile Average

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR) today

2 quant signals active · As of 2026-10-21

Win rate and excess are historical post-trigger stats vs the market. Click a signal for its full definition and samples; history does not predict future results.

Continue researching Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. with this page's evidence.

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Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR) peers and tracking

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Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR) quant signal backtests

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 84.39%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

24 historical occurrences (since 2017-04-03)

Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum

20-day: Win 58.3%, Sample 24, Median +4.21%, Excess +5.42%, Beat mkt rate 58.3%

60-day: Win 69.6%, Sample 23, Median +11.86%, Excess +12.38%, Beat mkt rate 65.2%

120-day: Win 81%, Sample 21, Median +12.87%, Excess +15.91%, Beat mkt rate 61.9%

120 days after: historical avg +22.98%

20-day +5.85%
60-day +15.85%
120-day +22.98%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
58.3%
69.6%
81%
Sample
24
23
21
Median
+4.21%
+11.86%
+12.87%
Excess
+5.42%
+12.38%
+15.91%
Beat mkt rate
58.3%
65.2%
61.9%

Over 21 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 22.98%, beat the market by 15.91 pts; win rate 81%.

Filed revenue acceleration

Active · now 13.19%

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

11 historical occurrences (since 2018-08-08)

Average forward return after Filed revenue acceleration

20-day: Win 36.4%, Sample 11, Median -1.58%, Excess -2.09%, Beat mkt rate 45.5%

60-day: Win 60%, Sample 10, Median +3.74%, Excess -4.12%, Beat mkt rate 60%

120-day: Win 50%, Sample 10, Median +1.28%, Excess -3.16%, Beat mkt rate 50%

120 days after: historical avg -0.19%

20-day -2.93%
60-day -3.78%
120-day -0.19%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
36.4%
60%
50%
Sample
11
10
10
Median
-1.58%
+3.74%
+1.28%
Excess
-2.09%
-4.12%
-3.16%
Beat mkt rate
45.5%
60%
50%

Over 10 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 0.19%, lagged the market by 3.16 pts; win rate 50%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 509+64.1% +31.7% 67.4% +38.5%
20-40 You are here51+245.6% +350.9% 72.5% +220.5%
40-60 5Insufficient data
60-80 0Insufficient data
80-100 0Insufficient data

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 4.94, placing it in the 37.4 own-history percentile, inside the 20-40 bucket.

More history: Valuation × momentum analogs, Market-wide momentum baseline, Signals not active now

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
+15.6%
Win rate 62.6% Excess +4.2%
281d
Now
+42.7%
Win rate 97.9% Excess +31.8%
94d
Insufficient data
(0d)
60-day momentum down
+50.1%
Win rate 52.3% Excess +37.3%
279d
+88.6%
Win rate 100% Excess +78.8%
31d
Insufficient data
(0d)

Currently in “Middle × 60-day momentum up”: across 94 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 42.7%, win rate 97.9%, beat the market by 31.8%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 98,747 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.49%, a 58.5% positive-return rate, and +3.13 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

19 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.9%, win rate 66.7%, beating the market by -1.28 pts on average.

EPS surprise beat

Pending

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

27 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.84%, win rate 60.9%, beating the market by +1.45 pts on average.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.