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RCAT

Red Cat Holdings, Inc. Technology As of 2026-06-18
Quality Weak
Valuation Cheaper
Risk High vol
Active signals Active Top-quintile 6-month momentum Filed revenue acceleration
11.44 Close (USD)
-28.86% 60-day
  • Quality is weaker than peers. Operating margin is only around the 9th percentile. TTM ROE is about -33.1%.
  • Valuation is cheaper than most peers. TTM P/E is in the 13th percentile, lower than most liquid US common stocks.
  • Recent volatility is elevated. 60-day annualized volatility is in the 93th percentile. Average 20-day dollar volume is about $243.4M.
  • Signals are active now. Top-quintile 6-month momentum, Filed revenue acceleration currently holds; the tables below show what followed in this stock’s own history.

Factor profile

Factor radar Neutral Valuation
43
ValuationQualityGrowthMomentumRisk / liquidity

Valuation

Indicators in this group are ranked by market percentile; lower valuation and volatility are better.

43 Neutral
TTM P/E -15.25
Cheap
Price / book 5.79
Expensive
Free-cash-flow yield (%) -8.33
Average

Historical evidence

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 84.15254237288136%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

33 historical occurrences (since 2016-07-05)
Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum。20-day: Win 29%, Sample 31, Median -14.14%, Excess -1.64%, Beat mkt rate 32.3%；60-day: Win 40%, Sample 30, Median -17.2%, Excess -8.57%, Beat mkt rate 36.7%；120-day: Win 25%, Sample 28, Median -40.08%, Excess +16.95%, Beat mkt rate 25%

120 days after: historical avg +24.8%

20-day -0.59%
60-day -5.19%
120-day +24.8%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
29%
40%
25%
Sample
31
30
28
Median
-14.14%
-17.2%
-40.08%
Excess
-1.64%
-8.57%
+16.95%
Beat mkt rate
32.3%
36.7%
25%

Over 28 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 24.8%, beat the market by 16.95 pts; win rate 25%.

Filed revenue acceleration

Active · now 144.60473703011237%

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

8 historical occurrences (since 2017-08-21)
Average forward return after Filed revenue acceleration。20-day: Win 62.5%, Sample 8, Median +19.87%, Excess +17.48%, Beat mkt rate 62.5%；60-day: Win 57.1%, Sample 7, Median +23.44%, Excess +20.61%, Beat mkt rate 57.1%；120-day: Win 42.9%, Sample 7, Median -3.33%, Excess +58.76%, Beat mkt rate 42.9%

120 days after: historical avg +66.78%

20-day +18.75%
60-day +26.19%
120-day +66.78%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
62.5%
57.1%
42.9%
Sample
8
7
7
Median
+19.87%
+23.44%
-3.33%
Excess
+17.48%
+20.61%
+58.76%
Beat mkt rate
62.5%
57.1%
42.9%

Over 7 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 66.78%, beat the market by 58.76 pts; win rate 42.9%.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 94,737 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.40%, a 58.3% positive-return rate, and +3.10 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

10 times historically; 60-day forward avg +41.84%, win rate 50%, beating the market by +38.19 pts on average.

EPS surprise beat

Pending

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

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Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.