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ACA Arcosa, Inc.

Basic Materials

146.50

Close 10/6

P/E
14.7
P/B
2.4
52W 89.03 147.05
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Is Arcosa, Inc. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

As of 2026-10-06

Quality: Good, Growth: Good, Momentum: Good, Risk / liquidity: Strong; Valuation: Pricey.

Valuation Pricey Free-cash-flow yield is Good, but Price / book is Pricey.
TTM P/E 14.68 67th percentile Pricey
Price / book 2.41 70th percentile Pricey
Free-cash-flow yield (%) 1.88 53th percentile Good
Quality Good All 3 indicators are Good.
ROE, TTM (%) 16.47 77th percentile Good
Operating margin, TTM (%) 11.92 60th percentile Good
FCF margin, TTM (%) 4.93 51th percentile Good
Growth Good Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY is Top, but Revenue growth, TTM YoY is Average.
Revenue growth, TTM YoY (%) 2.59 42th percentile Average
Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY (%) 430.85 94th percentile Top
Momentum Good 240-day return is Top; 60-day return is Good.
60-day return (%) 1.13 65th percentile Good
240-day return (%) 54.69 88th percentile Top
Risk / liquidity Strong 60-day annualized volatility is Cheap; 20-day dollar volume is Top.
20-day dollar volume 104,310,501 88th percentile Top
60-day annualized volatility (%) 2.62 3th percentile Cheap

Arcosa, Inc. (ACA) today

2 quant signals active · As of 2026-10-06

Win rate and excess are historical post-trigger stats vs the market. Click a signal for its full definition and samples; history does not predict future results.

Arcosa, Inc. (ACA) peers and tracking

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Arcosa, Inc. (ACA) quant signal backtests

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

52-week adjusted-price high

Active

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

24 historical occurrences (since 2019-11-04)
Average forward return after 52-week adjusted-price high。20-day: Win 41.7%, Sample 24, Median -0.44%, Excess +0.31%, Beat mkt rate 41.7%；60-day: Win 69.6%, Sample 23, Median +4.54%, Excess +2.64%, Beat mkt rate 52.2%；120-day: Win 57.1%, Sample 21, Median +1.57%, Excess -2.97%, Beat mkt rate 33.3%

120 days after: historical avg +1.99%

20-day -0.07%
60-day +3.92%
120-day +1.99%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
41.7%
69.6%
57.1%
Sample
24
23
21
Median
-0.44%
+4.54%
+1.57%
Excess
+0.31%
+2.64%
-2.97%
Beat mkt rate
41.7%
52.2%
33.3%

Over 21 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 1.99%, lagged the market by 2.97 pts; win rate 57.1%.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 82.73504273504273%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

18 historical occurrences (since 2019-05-03)
Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum。20-day: Win 61.1%, Sample 18, Median +3.1%, Excess +0.6%, Beat mkt rate 55.6%；60-day: Win 64.7%, Sample 17, Median +1%, Excess +2.11%, Beat mkt rate 41.2%；120-day: Win 81.2%, Sample 16, Median +10.56%, Excess +4.33%, Beat mkt rate 56.2%

120 days after: historical avg +13.01%

20-day +3.32%
60-day +5.98%
120-day +13.01%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
61.1%
64.7%
81.2%
Sample
18
17
16
Median
+3.1%
+1%
+10.56%
Excess
+0.6%
+2.11%
+4.33%
Beat mkt rate
55.6%
41.2%
56.2%

Over 16 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 13.01%, beat the market by 4.33 pts; win rate 81.2%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 You are here242+25% +25.3% 100% -0.7%
20-40 0Insufficient data
40-60 84+24.9% +26.1% 81% +9.7%
60-80 213+16.9% +9.8% 81.2% +4.3%
80-100 446+25.3% +20.4% 87.7% +16.8%

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 14.68, placing it in the 15.3 own-history percentile, inside the 0-20 bucket.

More history: Valuation × momentum analogs, Market-wide momentum baseline, Signals not active now

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
Now
+8.4%
Win rate 91% Excess -1%
188d
+15%
Win rate 98.7% Excess +6.2%
77d
+7%
Win rate 63.6% Excess +5.3%
494d
60-day momentum down
+17.1%
Win rate 100% Excess -1.1%
54d
+28%
Win rate 97.3% Excess +16.1%
113d
+14.7%
Win rate 87.2% Excess +8.8%
179d

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom third) × 60-day momentum up”: across 188 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 8.4%, win rate 91%, lagged the market by 1%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 98,107 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.24%, a 57.9% positive-return rate, and +2.89 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

Filed revenue acceleration

Pending

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

8 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.54%, win rate 75%, beating the market by +2.08 pts on average.

EPS surprise beat

Pending

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

26 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7.53%, win rate 73.1%, beating the market by +3.62 pts on average.

Continue researching Arcosa, Inc. with the evidence above.

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Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.