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AXTI AXT, Inc.

Technology

48.20 -6.86 -12.46% Close 11/2
Since 2024-12-02 +2391.4%
Open
56.11
High
56.89
Low
47.25
Prev close
55.06
Volume
15.1M
Amplitude
17.51%
P/E
119.9
P/B
4.0
Revenue YoY (TTM)
+89.1%
52W 7.80 143.16

Is AXT, Inc. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

As of 2026-10-30

Momentum: Good; Valuation: Pricey.

Valuation Pricey Free-cash-flow yield is Average; TTM P/E is Expensive.
TTM P/E 119.9 93th percentile Expensive
Price / book 3.95 78th percentile Pricey
Free-cash-flow yield (%) -0.54 43th percentile Average
US Stock Backtest in Python: Price-to-Book Ratio StrategyQuality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Quality Neutral Operating margin, TTM is Good, but FCF margin, TTM is Average.
ROE, TTM (%) 3.47 50th percentile Average
Operating margin, TTM (%) 19.55 71th percentile Good
FCF margin, TTM (%) -11.44 28th percentile Average
Quality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Growth Neutral Revenue growth, TTM YoY is Top, but Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY is Lagging.
Revenue growth, TTM YoY (%) 89.14 91th percentile Top
Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY (%) -187.72 11th percentile Lagging
Momentum Good 240-day return is Top, but 60-day return is Average.
60-day return (%) -26.75 20th percentile Average
240-day return (%) 427.39 100th percentile Top
Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
Risk / liquidity Neutral 20-day dollar volume is Top, but 60-day annualized volatility is Lagging.
20-day dollar volume 594,847,914 98th percentile Top
60-day annualized volatility (%) 125.56 88th percentile Lagging
Factor Investing Explained: 10 Classic Factors in US Stocks

AXT, Inc. (AXTI) today

2 quant signals active · As of 2026-10-30

Win rate and excess are historical post-trigger stats vs the market. Click a signal for its full definition and samples; history does not predict future results.

FinLab Studio

From AXT, Inc. to every stock like it

AI finds several complementary traits of AXT, Inc. across different dimensions, combines them into a multifactor strategy, and backtests it against the market.

Screen stocks like AXT, Inc.

AXT, Inc. (AXTI) peers and tracking

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AXT, Inc. (AXTI) quant signal backtests

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

Filed revenue acceleration

Active · now 89.14%

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

9 historical occurrences (since 2018-05-04)

Average forward return after Filed revenue acceleration

20-day: Win 37.5%, Sample 8, Median -8.41%, Excess -2.57%, Beat mkt rate 37.5%

60-day: Win 42.9%, Sample 7, Median -2.5%, Excess -2.7%, Beat mkt rate 42.9%

120-day: Win 14.3%, Sample 7, Median -24.28%, Excess -13.96%, Beat mkt rate 14.3%

120 days after: historical avg -10.22%

20-day -1.77%
60-day +1.84%
120-day -10.22%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
37.5%
42.9%
14.3%
Sample
8
7
7
Median
-8.41%
-2.5%
-24.28%
Excess
-2.57%
-2.7%
-13.96%
Beat mkt rate
37.5%
42.9%
14.3%

Over 7 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 10.22%, lagged the market by 13.96 pts; win rate 14.3%.

EPS surprise beat

Active · now 33.12%

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

PEAD: Post-Earnings Announcement Drift Backtest
34 historical occurrences (since 2015-10-29)

Average forward return after EPS surprise beat

20-day: Win 53.1%, Sample 32, Median +3.06%, Excess +8.94%, Beat mkt rate 50%

60-day: Win 56.2%, Sample 32, Median +6.04%, Excess +4.82%, Beat mkt rate 50%

120-day: Win 48.4%, Sample 31, Median -8.07%, Excess +29.07%, Beat mkt rate 41.9%

120 days after: historical avg +35.52%

20-day +10%
60-day +7.84%
120-day +35.52%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
53.1%
56.2%
48.4%
Sample
32
32
31
Median
+3.06%
+6.04%
-8.07%
Excess
+8.94%
+4.82%
+29.07%
Beat mkt rate
50%
50%
41.9%

Over 31 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 35.52%, beat the market by 29.07 pts; win rate 48.4%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 121+339.8% -39.1% 29.8% +306.9%
20-40 121+78.1% -36.5% 15.7% +71.2%
40-60 60-7.6% -10.4% 28.3% +0.8%
60-80 14Insufficient data
80-100 You are here31-39.5% -38.6% 0% -27.3%

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 119.90, placing it in the 93.3 own-history percentile, inside the 80-100 bucket.

More history: Valuation × momentum analogs, Market-wide momentum baseline, Signals not active now

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
-7%
Win rate 2.7% Excess -11.6%
74d
-36.8%
Win rate 0% Excess -30.1%
37d
Insufficient data
(12d)
60-day momentum down
+301.3%
Win rate 37.4% Excess +287.6%
243d
-20%
Win rate 0% Excess -17.6%
62d
Now
Insufficient data
(23d)

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 99,493 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.42%, a 58.4% positive-return rate, and +3.08 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

17 times historically; 60-day forward avg +62.33%, win rate 52.9%, beating the market by +57.17 pts on average.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Pending

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest

25 times historically; 60-day forward avg +19.82%, win rate 54.2%, beating the market by +15.14 pts on average.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.