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CDNA CareDx, Inc

Healthcare

quality needs a look, discounted valuation.

Quality
Weak
Valuation
Cheaper
Key signals
52-week adjusted-price high Top-quintile 6-month momentum Filed revenue acceleration
52.37
52.37 Close (USD) Loading candles…

Is CareDx, Inc a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Quality is weaker than peers. Operating margin is only around the 31th percentile. TTM ROE is about -2.6%.

  • Valuation is cheaper than most peers. TTM P/E is in the 1th percentile, lower than most liquid US common stocks.

  • Recent volatility is elevated. 60-day annualized volatility is in the 86th percentile. Average 20-day dollar volume is about $56.1M.

  • Signals are active now. 52-week adjusted-price high, Top-quintile 6-month momentum, Filed revenue acceleration currently holds; the tables below show what followed in this stock’s own history.

Watchlist

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Historical evidence

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

52-week adjusted-price high

Active

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

16 historical occurrences (since 2017-09-26)
Average forward return after 52-week adjusted-price high。20-day: Win 66.7%, Sample 15, Median +19.94%, Excess +14.08%, Beat mkt rate 60%；60-day: Win 78.6%, Sample 14, Median +54.1%, Excess +39.44%, Beat mkt rate 78.6%；120-day: Win 75%, Sample 12, Median +43.07%, Excess +35.67%, Beat mkt rate 75%

120 days after: historical avg +44.52%

20-day +15.29%
60-day +43.03%
120-day +44.52%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
66.7%
78.6%
75%
Sample
15
14
12
Median
+19.94%
+54.1%
+43.07%
Excess
+14.08%
+39.44%
+35.67%
Beat mkt rate
60%
78.6%
75%

Over 12 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 44.52%, beat the market by 35.67 pts; win rate 75%.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 99.49195596951735%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

18 historical occurrences (since 2017-08-24)
Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum。20-day: Win 55.6%, Sample 18, Median +4.14%, Excess +2.67%, Beat mkt rate 61.1%；60-day: Win 70.6%, Sample 17, Median +25.76%, Excess +31.59%, Beat mkt rate 64.7%；120-day: Win 73.3%, Sample 15, Median +69.01%, Excess +56.15%, Beat mkt rate 73.3%

120 days after: historical avg +69.23%

20-day +4.07%
60-day +38.13%
120-day +69.23%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
55.6%
70.6%
73.3%
Sample
18
17
15
Median
+4.14%
+25.76%
+69.01%
Excess
+2.67%
+31.59%
+56.15%
Beat mkt rate
61.1%
64.7%
73.3%

Over 15 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 69.23%, beat the market by 56.15 pts; win rate 73.3%.

Filed revenue acceleration

Active · now 19.167140560185448%

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

12 historical occurrences (since 2018-08-09)
Average forward return after Filed revenue acceleration。20-day: Win 50%, Sample 12, Median -0.38%, Excess +1.71%, Beat mkt rate 50%；60-day: Win 50%, Sample 12, Median -2.87%, Excess +7.63%, Beat mkt rate 50%；120-day: Win 27.3%, Sample 11, Median -9.84%, Excess -13.76%, Beat mkt rate 27.3%

120 days after: historical avg -4.5%

20-day +2.72%
60-day +11.03%
120-day -4.5%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
50%
50%
27.3%
Sample
12
12
11
Median
-0.38%
-2.87%
-9.84%
Excess
+1.71%
+7.63%
-13.76%
Beat mkt rate
50%
50%
27.3%

Over 11 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 4.5%, lagged the market by 13.76 pts; win rate 27.3%.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 98,275 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.16%, a 58.0% positive-return rate, and +2.81 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

EPS surprise beat

Pending

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

28 times historically; 60-day forward avg +32.78%, win rate 65.4%, beating the market by +29 pts on average.

Continue researching CareDx, Inc with the evidence above.

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Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.