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CHEF

The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. Consumer Defensive As of 2026-08-04 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, premium valuation.

4 active signals
52-week adjusted-price high Top-quintile 6-month momentum Filed revenue acceleration EPS surprise beat
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 25Quality 53Growth 66Momentum 90Risk / liquidity 73

Is The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Quality is weaker than peers. Operating margin is only around the 43th percentile. TTM ROE is about 13.1%.

  • Valuation is expensive. TTM P/E is in the 92th percentile, above most peers.

  • Recent volatility is moderate. 60-day annualized volatility is near the 36th percentile. Average 20-day dollar volume is about $70.4M.

  • Signals are active now. 52-week adjusted-price high, Top-quintile 6-month momentum, Filed revenue acceleration currently holds; the tables below show what followed in this stock’s own history.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

52-week adjusted-price high

Active

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

26 historical occurrences (since 2017-08-10)
Average forward return after 52-week adjusted-price high。20-day: Win 42.3%, Sample 26, Median -1.23%, Excess -0.3%, Beat mkt rate 38.5%；60-day: Win 60%, Sample 25, Median +4.18%, Excess +0.54%, Beat mkt rate 48%；120-day: Win 60.9%, Sample 23, Median +5.53%, Excess +8.39%, Beat mkt rate 56.5%

120 days after: historical avg +12.34%

20-day -0.1%
60-day +3.23%
120-day +12.34%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
42.3%
60%
60.9%
Sample
26
25
23
Median
-1.23%
+4.18%
+5.53%
Excess
-0.3%
+0.54%
+8.39%
Beat mkt rate
38.5%
48%
56.5%

Over 23 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 12.34%, beat the market by 8.39 pts; win rate 60.9%.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 94.13763806287172%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

24 historical occurrences (since 2017-02-02)
Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum。20-day: Win 50%, Sample 24, Median +0.19%, Excess +0.14%, Beat mkt rate 50%；60-day: Win 60.9%, Sample 23, Median +4.35%, Excess +1.93%, Beat mkt rate 56.5%；120-day: Win 65.2%, Sample 23, Median +13.62%, Excess +6.63%, Beat mkt rate 60.9%

120 days after: historical avg +10.59%

20-day +0.82%
60-day +2.83%
120-day +10.59%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
50%
60.9%
65.2%
Sample
24
23
23
Median
+0.19%
+4.35%
+13.62%
Excess
+0.14%
+1.93%
+6.63%
Beat mkt rate
50%
56.5%
60.9%

Over 23 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 10.59%, beat the market by 6.63 pts; win rate 65.2%.

Filed revenue acceleration

Active · now 10.007229092472446%

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

6 historical occurrences (since 2019-03-01)
Average forward return after Filed revenue acceleration。20-day: Win 16.7%, Sample 6, Median -2.87%, Excess -3.75%, Beat mkt rate 16.7%；60-day: Win 83.3%, Sample 6, Median +8.39%, Excess +10.01%, Beat mkt rate 83.3%；120-day: Win 80%, Sample 5, Median +10.27%, Excess +8.27%, Beat mkt rate 80%

120 days after: historical avg +7.04%

20-day -2.8%
60-day +8.37%
120-day +7.04%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
16.7%
83.3%
80%
Sample
6
6
5
Median
-2.87%
+8.39%
+10.27%
Excess
-3.75%
+10.01%
+8.27%
Beat mkt rate
16.7%
83.3%
80%

Over 5 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 7.04%, beat the market by 8.27 pts; win rate 80%.

EPS surprise beat

Active · now 32.20338983050849%

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

25 historical occurrences (since 2015-11-03)
Average forward return after EPS surprise beat。20-day: Win 52.2%, Sample 23, Median +0.74%, Excess -0.77%, Beat mkt rate 47.8%；60-day: Win 69.6%, Sample 23, Median +3.69%, Excess +5.46%, Beat mkt rate 60.9%；120-day: Win 76.2%, Sample 21, Median +6.9%, Excess +4.62%, Beat mkt rate 57.1%

120 days after: historical avg +8.21%

20-day +0.08%
60-day +7.69%
120-day +8.21%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
52.2%
69.6%
76.2%
Sample
23
23
21
Median
+0.74%
+3.69%
+6.9%
Excess
-0.77%
+5.46%
+4.62%
Beat mkt rate
47.8%
60.9%
57.1%

Over 21 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 8.21%, beat the market by 4.62 pts; win rate 76.2%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 167+31.1% +33.5% 77.2% +12%
20-40 241+27.2% +25.6% 65.6% +10%
40-60 110+42.7% +44.6% 90% +29.5%
60-80 90+36.3% +21.4% 98.9% +16.3%
80-100 You are here262+29.7% +16.9% 72.5% +9.2%

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 60.12, placing it in the 88.6 own-history percentile, inside the 80-100 bucket.

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
+20%
Win rate 68.7% Excess +11.4%
310d
+21.8%
Win rate 81.6% Excess +12.9%
147d
Now
+12.1%
Win rate 58.2% Excess +4.9%
194d
60-day momentum down
+24.8%
Win rate 87.5% Excess +16.7%
176d
+21.5%
Win rate 65.7% Excess +13.5%
35d
+6.8%
Win rate 53.1% Excess -4.2%
128d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top third) × 60-day momentum up”: across 194 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 12.1%, win rate 58.2%, beat the market by 4.9%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 97,973 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.17%, a 58.1% positive-return rate, and +2.81 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.