CHEF The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc.

Consumer Defensive

quality needs a look, premium valuation.

Quality: Weak
Valuation: Expensive

Key signals

Top-quintile 6-month momentum Filed revenue acceleration

110.85

110.85 Close (USD) Loading candles…

Is The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

Quality is weaker than peers. Operating margin is only around the 43th percentile. TTM ROE is about 13.1%.
Valuation is expensive. TTM P/E is in the 93th percentile, above most peers.
Recent volatility is moderate. 60-day annualized volatility is near the 42th percentile. Average 20-day dollar volume is about $78.7M.
Signals are active now. Top-quintile 6-month momentum, Filed revenue acceleration currently holds; the tables below show what followed in this stock’s own history.

Watchlist

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Historical evidence

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 94.74130619168787%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

25 historical occurrences (since 2017-02-02)

120 days after: historical avg +10.87%

20-day +0.43%

60-day +4.19%

120-day +10.87%

20-day

60-day

120-day

Win

48%

64%

66.7%

Sample

Median

-0.55%

+4.35%

+14.35%

Excess

-0.23%

+3.08%

+6.99%

Beat mkt rate

48%

60%

62.5%

Over 24 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 10.87%, beat the market by 6.99 pts; win rate 66.7%.

Filed revenue acceleration

Active · now 10.007229092472446%

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

6 historical occurrences (since 2019-03-01)

120 days after: historical avg +7.04%

20-day -2.8%

60-day +8.37%

120-day +7.04%

20-day

60-day

120-day

Win

16.7%

83.3%

80%

Sample

Median

-2.87%

+8.39%

+10.27%

Excess

-3.75%

+10.01%

+8.27%

Beat mkt rate

16.7%

83.3%

80%

Over 5 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 7.04%, beat the market by 8.27 pts; win rate 80%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

0-20 +38.1%

20-40 +27.7%

40-60 +42.7%

60-80 +36.3%

80-100 +29.7% Now

PE percentile band	Sample days	240-day avg return	Median	Win rate	Avg excess (vs index)
0-20	196	+38.1%	+42.3%	80.6%	+19.2%
20-40	244	+27.7%	+25.7%	66%	+10.5%
40-60	110	+42.7%	+44.6%	90%	+29.5%
60-80	90	+36.3%	+21.4%	98.9%	+16.3%
80-100 You are here	262	+29.7%	+16.9%	72.5%	+9.2%

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 60.57, placing it in the 88.1 own-history percentile, inside the 80-100 bucket.

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation

Momentum

Cheap (own-history bottom third)

Middle

Expensive (own-history top third)

60-day momentum up

+22.9%

Win rate 70.5% Excess +14%

329d

+22.6%

Win rate 82.1% Excess +13.6%

151d

Now

+12.1%

Win rate 58.2% Excess +4.9%

194d

60-day momentum down

+27.6%

Win rate 88.1% Excess +19.1%

185d

+21.5%

Win rate 65.7% Excess +13.5%

35d

+6.8%

Win rate 53.1% Excess -4.2%

128d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top third) × 60-day momentum up”: across 194 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 12.1%, win rate 58.2%, beat the market by 4.9%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 98,576 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.17%, a 57.9% positive-return rate, and +2.82 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

27 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.57%, win rate 61.5%, beating the market by +1.8 pts on average.

EPS surprise beat

Pending

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

25 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7.69%, win rate 69.6%, beating the market by +5.46 pts on average.

Continue researching The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. with the evidence above.

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Method and limits

Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.