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CIEN Ciena Corporation

Technology

steady quality, premium valuation.

Quality
Above avg
Valuation
Expensive
Key signals
Filed revenue acceleration EPS surprise beat
340.50
340.5 Close (USD) Loading candles…

Is Ciena Corporation a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Quality is above average. Operating margin sits near the 59th percentile. TTM ROE is about 14.3%.

  • Valuation is expensive. TTM P/E is in the 96th percentile, above most peers.

  • Recent volatility is elevated. 60-day annualized volatility is in the 79th percentile. Average 20-day dollar volume is about $823.9M.

  • Signals are active now. Filed revenue acceleration, EPS surprise beat currently holds; the tables below show what followed in this stock’s own history.

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Historical evidence

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

Filed revenue acceleration

Active · now 30.59149388987088%

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

11 historical occurrences (since 2018-12-21)
Average forward return after Filed revenue acceleration。20-day: Win 54.5%, Sample 11, Median +2.3%, Excess +7.57%, Beat mkt rate 54.5%；60-day: Win 45.5%, Sample 11, Median -5.93%, Excess +12.26%, Beat mkt rate 45.5%；120-day: Win 80%, Sample 10, Median +10.77%, Excess +29.06%, Beat mkt rate 50%

120 days after: historical avg +37.87%

20-day +8.15%
60-day +16.71%
120-day +37.87%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
54.5%
45.5%
80%
Sample
11
11
10
Median
+2.3%
-5.93%
+10.77%
Excess
+7.57%
+12.26%
+29.06%
Beat mkt rate
54.5%
45.5%
50%

Over 10 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 37.87%, beat the market by 29.06 pts; win rate 80%.

EPS surprise beat

Active · now 21.96531791907514%

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

34 historical occurrences (since 2015-03-05)
Average forward return after EPS surprise beat。20-day: Win 34.5%, Sample 29, Median -1.26%, Excess +0.92%, Beat mkt rate 37.9%；60-day: Win 55.2%, Sample 29, Median +2.57%, Excess +5.23%, Beat mkt rate 44.8%；120-day: Win 75%, Sample 28, Median +10.92%, Excess +13.45%, Beat mkt rate 57.1%

120 days after: historical avg +21.87%

20-day +0.59%
60-day +9.17%
120-day +21.87%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
34.5%
55.2%
75%
Sample
29
29
28
Median
-1.26%
+2.57%
+10.92%
Excess
+0.92%
+5.23%
+13.45%
Beat mkt rate
37.9%
44.8%
57.1%

Over 28 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 21.87%, beat the market by 13.45 pts; win rate 75%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 21Insufficient data
20-40 352+1.1% -9.9% 40.9% -6.9%
40-60 236+6.1% +5.5% 60.6% -6.4%
60-80 295+29.4% +23% 85.8% +7.1%
80-100 You are here501+178.1% +110.5% 83.8% +160%

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 113.50, placing it in the 83.8 own-history percentile, inside the 80-100 bucket.

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
-11.6%
Win rate 15.6% Excess -5.4%
64d
-0.8%
Win rate 47% Excess -11.1%
355d
+58.8%
Win rate 69.1% Excess +51.6%
531d
60-day momentum down
+6.2%
Win rate 65.4% Excess +2.7%
214d
+17.2%
Win rate 87.8% Excess +2.7%
98d
Now
+40.7%
Win rate 78.3% Excess +30.1%
263d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top third) × 60-day momentum down”: across 263 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 40.7%, win rate 78.3%, beat the market by 30.1%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 98,524 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.12%, a 57.9% positive-return rate, and +2.77 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

23 times historically; 60-day forward avg +11.83%, win rate 65.2%, beating the market by +10.16 pts on average.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Pending

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

23 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7.77%, win rate 56.5%, beating the market by +4.97 pts on average.

Continue researching Ciena Corporation with the evidence above.

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Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.