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ESTC Elastic N.V.

Technology

97.28 Close 10/30
Since 2024-12-02 -14.0%
Open
101.42
High
101.42
Low
95.83
Prev close
103.30
Volume
1.5M
Amplitude
5.41%
P/E
27.2
P/B
7.9
Revenue YoY (TTM)
+16.2%
52W 42.05 108.00

Is Elastic N.V. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

As of 2026-10-30

Quality: Good, Momentum: Good, Risk / liquidity: Good; Valuation: Pricey, Growth: Weak.

Valuation Pricey Free-cash-flow yield is Good, but Price / book is Expensive.
TTM P/E 27.23 65th percentile Pricey
Price / book 7.88 90th percentile Expensive
Free-cash-flow yield (%) 3.42 60th percentile Good
US Stock Backtest in Python: Price-to-Book Ratio StrategyQuality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Quality Good ROE, TTM is Top, but Operating margin, TTM is Average.
ROE, TTM (%) 28.97 87th percentile Top
Operating margin, TTM (%) -1.49 34th percentile Average
FCF margin, TTM (%) 19.37 76th percentile Good
Quality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Growth Weak Revenue growth, TTM YoY is Good, but Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY is Lagging.
Revenue growth, TTM YoY (%) 16.18 70th percentile Good
Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY (%) -546.62 4th percentile Lagging
Momentum Good 60-day return is Top; 240-day return is Good.
60-day return (%) 39.07 97th percentile Top
240-day return (%) 7.1 60th percentile Good
Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
Risk / liquidity Good 20-day dollar volume is Top, but 60-day annualized volatility is Average.
20-day dollar volume 183,415,785 92th percentile Top
60-day annualized volatility (%) 66.69 68th percentile Average
Factor Investing Explained: 10 Classic Factors in US Stocks

Elastic N.V. (ESTC) today

2 quant signals active · As of 2026-10-30

Win rate and excess are historical post-trigger stats vs the market. Click a signal for its full definition and samples; history does not predict future results.

FinLab Studio

From Elastic N.V. to every stock like it

AI finds several complementary traits of Elastic N.V. across different dimensions, combines them into a multifactor strategy, and backtests it against the market.

Screen stocks like Elastic N.V.

Elastic N.V. (ESTC) peers and tracking

Watchlist

This page refreshes daily after the close. Add Elastic N.V. to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.

Elastic N.V. (ESTC) quant signal backtests

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

52-week adjusted-price high

Active

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

11 historical occurrences (since 2020-08-20)

Average forward return after 52-week adjusted-price high

20-day: Win 40%, Sample 10, Median -2.52%, Excess -3.62%, Beat mkt rate 30%

60-day: Win 33.3%, Sample 9, Median -4.39%, Excess -6.61%, Beat mkt rate 33.3%

120-day: Win 33.3%, Sample 9, Median -6.64%, Excess -17.74%, Beat mkt rate 22.2%

120 days after: historical avg -5.37%

20-day -3.09%
60-day +0.24%
120-day -5.37%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
40%
33.3%
33.3%
Sample
10
9
9
Median
-2.52%
-4.39%
-6.64%
Excess
-3.62%
-6.61%
-17.74%
Beat mkt rate
30%
33.3%
22.2%

Over 9 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 5.37%, lagged the market by 17.74 pts; win rate 33.3%.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 97.71%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
17 historical occurrences (since 2019-04-09)

Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum

20-day: Win 35.3%, Sample 17, Median -3.32%, Excess -1.46%, Beat mkt rate 41.2%

60-day: Win 37.5%, Sample 16, Median -2.57%, Excess -5.85%, Beat mkt rate 31.2%

120-day: Win 43.8%, Sample 16, Median -8.2%, Excess -6.71%, Beat mkt rate 31.2%

120 days after: historical avg +2.15%

20-day -2%
60-day -1.88%
120-day +2.15%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
35.3%
37.5%
43.8%
Sample
17
16
16
Median
-3.32%
-2.57%
-8.2%
Excess
-1.46%
-5.85%
-6.71%
Beat mkt rate
41.2%
31.2%
31.2%

Over 16 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 2.15%, lagged the market by 6.71 pts; win rate 43.8%.

More history: Market-wide momentum baseline, Signals not active now

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 99,493 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.42%, a 58.4% positive-return rate, and +3.08 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

Filed revenue acceleration

Pending

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

6 times historically; 60-day forward avg -2.42%, win rate 33.3%, beating the market by -5.7 pts on average.

EPS surprise beat

Pending

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

PEAD: Post-Earnings Announcement Drift Backtest

30 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.31%, win rate 48.3%, beating the market by -0.83 pts on average.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.