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ETSY Etsy, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical

88.96 Close 10/30
Since 2024-12-02 +60.4%
Open
90.42
High
92.78
Low
87.93
Prev close
91.59
Volume
3.4M
Amplitude
5.30%
P/E
10.5
Revenue YoY (TTM)
+0.7%
52W 44.00 94.49

Is Etsy, Inc. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

As of 2026-10-30

Valuation: Fair, Growth: Good, Momentum: Strong, Risk / liquidity: Good.

Valuation Fair Free-cash-flow yield is Good; TTM P/E is Fair.
TTM P/E 10.45 27th percentile Fair
Price / book -11.31 N/A
Free-cash-flow yield (%) 7.36 75th percentile Good
US Stock Backtest in Python: Price-to-Book Ratio StrategyQuality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Quality Neutral FCF margin, TTM is Good, but ROE, TTM is Lagging.
ROE, TTM (%) -145.68 8th percentile Lagging
Operating margin, TTM (%) 16.91 67th percentile Good
FCF margin, TTM (%) 19.65 76th percentile Good
Quality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Growth Good Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY is Top, but Revenue growth, TTM YoY is Average.
Revenue growth, TTM YoY (%) 0.69 37th percentile Average
Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY (%) 507.86 94th percentile Top
Momentum Strong All 2 indicators are Top.
60-day return (%) 8.14 84th percentile Top
240-day return (%) 55.8 89th percentile Top
Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
Risk / liquidity Good 20-day dollar volume is Top, but 60-day annualized volatility is Average.
20-day dollar volume 288,424,493 95th percentile Top
60-day annualized volatility (%) 47.75 54th percentile Average
Factor Investing Explained: 10 Classic Factors in US Stocks

Etsy, Inc. (ETSY) today

3 quant signals active · As of 2026-10-30

Win rate and excess are historical post-trigger stats vs the market. Click a signal for its full definition and samples; history does not predict future results.

FinLab Studio

From Etsy, Inc. to every stock like it

AI finds several complementary traits of Etsy, Inc. across different dimensions, combines them into a multifactor strategy, and backtests it against the market.

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Etsy, Inc. (ETSY) peers and tracking

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Etsy, Inc. (ETSY) quant signal backtests

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

52-week adjusted-price high

Active

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

23 historical occurrences (since 2017-08-09)

Average forward return after 52-week adjusted-price high

20-day: Win 77.3%, Sample 22, Median +4.4%, Excess +2.6%, Beat mkt rate 68.2%

60-day: Win 66.7%, Sample 21, Median +10.51%, Excess +7.76%, Beat mkt rate 52.4%

120-day: Win 70%, Sample 20, Median +23.22%, Excess +18.36%, Beat mkt rate 65%

120 days after: historical avg +25.69%

20-day +3.24%
60-day +11.53%
120-day +25.69%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
77.3%
66.7%
70%
Sample
22
21
20
Median
+4.4%
+10.51%
+23.22%
Excess
+2.6%
+7.76%
+18.36%
Beat mkt rate
68.2%
52.4%
65%

Over 20 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 25.69%, beat the market by 18.36 pts; win rate 70%.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 88.62%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
23 historical occurrences (since 2016-07-12)

Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum

20-day: Win 68.2%, Sample 22, Median +6.04%, Excess +5.66%, Beat mkt rate 59.1%

60-day: Win 57.1%, Sample 21, Median +8.02%, Excess +6.19%, Beat mkt rate 52.4%

120-day: Win 55%, Sample 20, Median +9.22%, Excess +8.17%, Beat mkt rate 45%

120 days after: historical avg +17.42%

20-day +6.5%
60-day +10.55%
120-day +17.42%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
68.2%
57.1%
55%
Sample
22
21
20
Median
+6.04%
+8.02%
+9.22%
Excess
+5.66%
+6.19%
+8.17%
Beat mkt rate
59.1%
52.4%
45%

Over 20 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 17.42%, beat the market by 8.17 pts; win rate 55%.

EPS surprise beat

Active · now 30.89%

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

PEAD: Post-Earnings Announcement Drift Backtest
27 historical occurrences (since 2016-02-23)

Average forward return after EPS surprise beat

20-day: Win 53.8%, Sample 26, Median +4.03%, Excess +3.49%, Beat mkt rate 53.8%

60-day: Win 61.5%, Sample 26, Median +10.03%, Excess +6.3%, Beat mkt rate 57.7%

120-day: Win 64%, Sample 25, Median +28.63%, Excess +20.24%, Beat mkt rate 60%

120 days after: historical avg +27.26%

20-day +4.46%
60-day +8.51%
120-day +27.26%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
53.8%
61.5%
64%
Sample
26
26
25
Median
+4.03%
+10.03%
+28.63%
Excess
+3.49%
+6.3%
+20.24%
Beat mkt rate
53.8%
57.7%
60%

Over 25 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 27.26%, beat the market by 20.24 pts; win rate 64%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 You are here602-21.2% -26.4% 24.3% -40%
20-40 157-10.9% -44.2% 45.2% -17%
40-60 163-4.2% -2.3% 46.6% -14.3%
60-80 47+12.3% +22.3% 63.8% -7.9%
80-100 18Insufficient data

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 10.45, placing it in the 0.0 own-history percentile, inside the 0-20 bucket.

More history: Valuation × momentum analogs, Market-wide momentum baseline, Signals not active now

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
-16.1%
Win rate 24.4% Excess -28.1%
246d
-15.1%
Win rate 34.2% Excess -19.2%
231d
-6%
Win rate 23.1% Excess -20.2%
52d
60-day momentum down
+2.5%
Win rate 39.7% Excess -5.4%
504d
+18.6%
Win rate 83.8% Excess +10.5%
74d
Insufficient data
(0d)

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 99,493 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.42%, a 58.4% positive-return rate, and +3.08 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

Filed revenue acceleration

Pending

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

11 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.15%, win rate 45.5%, beating the market by +1.54 pts on average.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.