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ETSY Etsy, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical

steady quality, premium valuation.

Quality
Above avg
Valuation
Expensive
Key signals
Top-quintile 6-month momentum
73.46
73.46 Close (USD) Loading candles…

Is Etsy, Inc. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Quality is above average. Operating margin sits near the 65th percentile. TTM ROE is about -25.1%.

  • Valuation is expensive. TTM P/E is in the 82th percentile, above most peers.

  • Recent volatility is moderate. 60-day annualized volatility is near the 52th percentile. Average 20-day dollar volume is about $228.5M.

  • Signals are active now. Top-quintile 6-month momentum currently holds; the tables below show what followed in this stock’s own history.

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Historical evidence

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 82.54237288135593%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

22 historical occurrences (since 2016-07-12)
Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum。20-day: Win 61.9%, Sample 21, Median +10.18%, Excess +7.42%, Beat mkt rate 61.9%；60-day: Win 52.4%, Sample 21, Median +8.02%, Excess +5.88%, Beat mkt rate 52.4%；120-day: Win 55%, Sample 20, Median +4.47%, Excess +7.07%, Beat mkt rate 45%

120 days after: historical avg +16.2%

20-day +8.22%
60-day +10.15%
120-day +16.2%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
61.9%
52.4%
55%
Sample
21
21
20
Median
+10.18%
+8.02%
+4.47%
Excess
+7.42%
+5.88%
+7.07%
Beat mkt rate
61.9%
52.4%
45%

Over 20 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 16.2%, beat the market by 7.07 pts; win rate 55%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 You are here602-21.2% -26.4% 24.3% -40%
20-40 147-14.9% -45% 41.5% -20.5%
40-60 141-5.7% -28% 44% -15.2%
60-80 47+12.3% +22.3% 63.8% -7.9%
80-100 18Insufficient data

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 30.11, placing it in the 19.6 own-history percentile, inside the 0-20 bucket.

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
Now
-18.1%
Win rate 21.5% Excess -30.5%
237d
-16.8%
Win rate 31.5% Excess -20.7%
222d
-6%
Win rate 23.1% Excess -20.2%
52d
60-day momentum down
+1.9%
Win rate 38.8% Excess -5.9%
497d
+17.6%
Win rate 82.1% Excess +10.1%
67d
Insufficient data
(0d)

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom third) × 60-day momentum up”: across 237 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 18.1%, win rate 21.5%, lagged the market by 30.5%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 98,524 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.12%, a 57.9% positive-return rate, and +2.77 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

22 times historically; 60-day forward avg +12.46%, win rate 70%, beating the market by +8.72 pts on average.

Filed revenue acceleration

Pending

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

11 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.15%, win rate 45.5%, beating the market by +1.54 pts on average.

EPS surprise beat

Pending

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

24 times historically; 60-day forward avg +8.09%, win rate 58.3%, beating the market by +5.87 pts on average.

Continue researching Etsy, Inc. with the evidence above.

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Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.