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ETSY

Etsy, Inc. Consumer Cyclical As of 2026-07-31 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, premium valuation.

2 active signals

52-week adjusted-price high Top-quintile 6-month momentum

This page refreshes daily after the close. Add Etsy, Inc. to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.

Is Etsy, Inc. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

Quality is above average. Operating margin sits near the 65th percentile. TTM ROE is about -25.1%.
Valuation is expensive. TTM P/E is in the 84th percentile, above most peers.
Recent volatility is moderate. 60-day annualized volatility is near the 44th percentile. Average 20-day dollar volume is about $197.4M.
Signals are active now. 52-week adjusted-price high, Top-quintile 6-month momentum currently holds; the tables below show what followed in this stock’s own history.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

52-week adjusted-price high

Active

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

21 historical occurrences (since 2017-08-09)

120 days after: historical avg +25.69%

20-day +4.05%

60-day +12.46%

120-day +25.69%

20-day

60-day

120-day

Win

81%

70%

Sample

Median

+5.1%

+13.53%

+23.22%

Excess

+3.51%

+8.72%

+18.34%

Beat mkt rate

71.4%

55%

65%

Over 20 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 25.69%, beat the market by 18.34 pts; win rate 70%.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 90.72340425531915%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

21 historical occurrences (since 2016-07-12)

120 days after: historical avg +17.33%

20-day +8.07%

60-day +9.96%

120-day +17.33%

20-day

60-day

120-day

Win

61.9%

55%

60%

Sample

Median

+10.18%

+9.51%

+9.22%

Excess

+7.12%

+5.44%

+8.05%

Beat mkt rate

57.1%

55%

45%

Over 20 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 17.33%, beat the market by 8.05 pts; win rate 60%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

0-20 -21.2%

20-40 -18.2% Now

40-60 -13.2%

60-80 +12.3%

80-100 Insufficient data

PE percentile band	Sample days	240-day avg return	Median	Win rate	Avg excess (vs index)
0-20	602	-21.2%	-26.4%	24.3%	-40%
20-40 You are here	140	-18.2%	-45.3%	38.6%	-23.1%
40-60	116	-13.2%	-34.3%	31.9%	-21%
60-80	47	+12.3%	+22.3%	63.8%	-7.9%
80-100	18	Insufficient data

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 33.48, placing it in the 25.4 own-history percentile, inside the 20-40 bucket.

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation

Momentum

Cheap (own-history bottom third)

Middle

Expensive (own-history top third)

60-day momentum up

Now

-18.4%

Win rate 21.2% Excess -30.7%

236d

-20%

Win rate 28% Excess -23.4%

211d

-6%

Win rate 23.1% Excess -20.2%

52d

60-day momentum down

-0.2%

Win rate 36.7% Excess -7.7%

480d

+16%

Win rate 81.2% Excess +8.7%

64d

Insufficient data
(0d)

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom third) × 60-day momentum up”: across 236 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 18.4%, win rate 21.2%, lagged the market by 30.7%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 97,878 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.26%, a 58.3% positive-return rate, and +2.90 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

Filed revenue acceleration

Pending

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

11 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.15%, win rate 45.5%, beating the market by +1.54 pts on average.

EPS surprise beat

Pending

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

24 times historically; 60-day forward avg +8.09%, win rate 58.3%, beating the market by +5.87 pts on average.

Method and limits

Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.