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EXEL Exelixis, Inc.

Healthcare

69.39 Close 10/30
Since 2024-12-02 +95.0%
Open
68.28
High
72.10
Low
67.05
Prev close
66.20
Volume
5.1M
Amplitude
7.63%
P/E
20.8
P/B
9.2
Revenue YoY (TTM)
+18.5%
52W 36.00 72.10

Is Exelixis, Inc. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

As of 2026-10-30

Quality: Strong, Growth: Strong, Momentum: Strong, Risk / liquidity: Good; Valuation: Pricey.

Valuation Pricey Free-cash-flow yield is Good, but Price / book is Expensive.
TTM P/E 20.78 55th percentile Pricey
Price / book 9.23 92th percentile Expensive
Free-cash-flow yield (%) 6.84 73th percentile Good
US Stock Backtest in Python: Price-to-Book Ratio StrategyQuality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Quality Strong All 3 indicators are Top.
ROE, TTM (%) 48.27 91th percentile Top
Operating margin, TTM (%) 40.19 89th percentile Top
FCF margin, TTM (%) 46.38 92th percentile Top
Quality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Growth Strong Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY is Top; Revenue growth, TTM YoY is Good.
Revenue growth, TTM YoY (%) 18.49 73th percentile Good
Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY (%) 173.59 89th percentile Top
Momentum Strong All 2 indicators are Top.
60-day return (%) 32.93 96th percentile Top
240-day return (%) 66.6 91th percentile Top
Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
Risk / liquidity Good 20-day dollar volume is Top; 60-day annualized volatility is Good.
20-day dollar volume 151,165,809 90th percentile Top
60-day annualized volatility (%) 27.89 32th percentile Good
Factor Investing Explained: 10 Classic Factors in US Stocks

Exelixis, Inc. (EXEL) today

4 quant signals active · As of 2026-10-30

Win rate and excess are historical post-trigger stats vs the market. Click a signal for its full definition and samples; history does not predict future results.

FinLab Studio

From Exelixis, Inc. to every stock like it

AI finds several complementary traits of Exelixis, Inc. across different dimensions, combines them into a multifactor strategy, and backtests it against the market.

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Exelixis, Inc. (EXEL) peers and tracking

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Exelixis, Inc. (EXEL) quant signal backtests

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

52-week adjusted-price high

Active

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

21 historical occurrences (since 2017-01-10)

Average forward return after 52-week adjusted-price high

20-day: Win 50%, Sample 20, Median +1.21%, Excess -1.32%, Beat mkt rate 50%

60-day: Win 57.9%, Sample 19, Median +3.37%, Excess +1.27%, Beat mkt rate 63.2%

120-day: Win 73.7%, Sample 19, Median +12.51%, Excess +2.97%, Beat mkt rate 57.9%

120 days after: historical avg +11.16%

20-day +1.16%
60-day +4.83%
120-day +11.16%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
50%
57.9%
73.7%
Sample
20
19
19
Median
+1.21%
+3.37%
+12.51%
Excess
-1.32%
+1.27%
+2.97%
Beat mkt rate
50%
63.2%
57.9%

Over 19 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 11.16%, beat the market by 2.97 pts; win rate 73.7%.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 92.95%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
28 historical occurrences (since 2016-07-05)

Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum

20-day: Win 55.6%, Sample 27, Median +0.37%, Excess +1.61%, Beat mkt rate 37%

60-day: Win 57.7%, Sample 26, Median +4.31%, Excess +3.38%, Beat mkt rate 50%

120-day: Win 48%, Sample 25, Median -0.5%, Excess -3.52%, Beat mkt rate 40%

120 days after: historical avg +5.18%

20-day +3.71%
60-day +8.7%
120-day +5.18%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
55.6%
57.7%
48%
Sample
27
26
25
Median
+0.37%
+4.31%
-0.5%
Excess
+1.61%
+3.38%
-3.52%
Beat mkt rate
37%
50%
40%

Over 25 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 5.18%, lagged the market by 3.52 pts; win rate 48%.

Filed revenue acceleration

Active · now 18.49%

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

4 historical occurrences (since 2019-02-22)

EPS surprise beat

Active · now 5.98%

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

PEAD: Post-Earnings Announcement Drift Backtest
35 historical occurrences (since 2015-04-30)

Average forward return after EPS surprise beat

20-day: Win 57.6%, Sample 33, Median +2.52%, Excess +4.95%, Beat mkt rate 51.5%

60-day: Win 72.7%, Sample 33, Median +8.85%, Excess +7.08%, Beat mkt rate 57.6%

120-day: Win 68.8%, Sample 32, Median +11.82%, Excess +8.9%, Beat mkt rate 59.4%

120 days after: historical avg +15.07%

20-day +5.57%
60-day +9.33%
120-day +15.07%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
57.6%
72.7%
68.8%
Sample
33
33
32
Median
+2.52%
+8.85%
+11.82%
Excess
+4.95%
+7.08%
+8.9%
Beat mkt rate
51.5%
57.6%
59.4%

Over 32 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 15.07%, beat the market by 8.9 pts; win rate 68.8%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 0Insufficient data
20-40 250+19.9% +23.8% 82% +14.1%
40-60 You are here535+6.7% +0.7% 50.8% -5.6%
60-80 364+30.6% +25.5% 67.3% +17.2%
80-100 187+29.1% +21.2% 100% +3.1%

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 20.78, placing it in the 46.5 own-history percentile, inside the 40-60 bucket.

More history: Valuation × momentum analogs, Market-wide momentum baseline

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
+25%
Win rate 95.6% Excess +14%
68d
Now
+5.1%
Win rate 63.4% Excess +0.1%
464d
+8.3%
Win rate 68.1% Excess -2.4%
335d
60-day momentum down
+16.5%
Win rate 87.8% Excess +11.3%
156d
+3.4%
Win rate 66.5% Excess -1.3%
319d
+32%
Win rate 89.5% Excess +21.3%
114d

Currently in “Middle × 60-day momentum up”: across 464 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 5.1%, win rate 63.4%, beat the market by 0.1%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 99,493 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.42%, a 58.4% positive-return rate, and +3.08 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.