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FRPT

Freshpet, Inc. Consumer Defensive As of 2026-08-07 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
EPS surprise beat
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add Freshpet, Inc. to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 45Quality 69Growth 82Momentum 75Risk / liquidity 62

Is Freshpet, Inc. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Quality is above average. Operating margin sits near the 54th percentile. TTM ROE is about 15.9%.

  • Valuation is middle-of-pack. TTM P/E is near the 70th percentile.

  • Recent volatility is moderate. 60-day annualized volatility is near the 60th percentile. Average 20-day dollar volume is about $87.4M.

  • Signals are active now. EPS surprise beat currently holds; the tables below show what followed in this stock’s own history.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

EPS surprise beat

Active · now 95.5617198335645%

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

18 historical occurrences (since 2016-03-09)
Average forward return after EPS surprise beat。20-day: Win 70.6%, Sample 17, Median +4.07%, Excess +1.61%, Beat mkt rate 64.7%；60-day: Win 82.4%, Sample 17, Median +10.44%, Excess +6.87%, Beat mkt rate 70.6%；120-day: Win 93.3%, Sample 15, Median +27.69%, Excess +14.65%, Beat mkt rate 73.3%

120 days after: historical avg +23.97%

20-day +3.9%
60-day +12.06%
120-day +23.97%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
70.6%
82.4%
93.3%
Sample
17
17
15
Median
+4.07%
+10.44%
+27.69%
Excess
+1.61%
+6.87%
+14.65%
Beat mkt rate
64.7%
70.6%
73.3%

Over 15 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 23.97%, beat the market by 14.65 pts; win rate 93.3%.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 98,095 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.20%, a 58.2% positive-return rate, and +2.85 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

28 times historically; 60-day forward avg +10.03%, win rate 78.6%, beating the market by +7.47 pts on average.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Pending

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

31 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7.9%, win rate 71%, beating the market by +4.63 pts on average.

Filed revenue acceleration

Pending

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

19 times historically; 60-day forward avg +6.33%, win rate 63.2%, beating the market by +2.1 pts on average.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.