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MOG-A

Moog Inc. Industrials As of 2026-07-31 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, premium valuation.

2 active signals
Top-quintile 6-month momentum EPS surprise beat
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add Moog Inc. to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 24Quality 55Growth 60Momentum 91Risk / liquidity 72

Is Moog Inc. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Quality is above average. Operating margin sits near the 58th percentile. TTM ROE is about 10.5%.

  • Valuation is expensive. TTM P/E is in the 91th percentile, above most peers.

  • Recent volatility is moderate. 60-day annualized volatility is near the 43th percentile. Average 20-day dollar volume is about $120.7M.

  • Signals are active now. Top-quintile 6-month momentum, EPS surprise beat currently holds; the tables below show what followed in this stock’s own history.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 84.51063829787235%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

22 historical occurrences (since 2016-08-01)
Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum。20-day: Win 68.2%, Sample 22, Median +2.34%, Excess +1.93%, Beat mkt rate 63.6%；60-day: Win 77.3%, Sample 22, Median +7.4%, Excess +2.47%, Beat mkt rate 59.1%；120-day: Win 86.4%, Sample 22, Median +10.08%, Excess +4.88%, Beat mkt rate 59.1%

120 days after: historical avg +13.45%

20-day +3.39%
60-day +6.9%
120-day +13.45%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
68.2%
77.3%
86.4%
Sample
22
22
22
Median
+2.34%
+7.4%
+10.08%
Excess
+1.93%
+2.47%
+4.88%
Beat mkt rate
63.6%
59.1%
59.1%

Over 22 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 13.45%, beat the market by 4.88 pts; win rate 86.4%.

EPS surprise beat

Active · now 39.849624060150376%

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

30 historical occurrences (since 2015-05-01)
Average forward return after EPS surprise beat。20-day: Win 77.8%, Sample 27, Median +6.99%, Excess +3.73%, Beat mkt rate 63%；60-day: Win 77.8%, Sample 27, Median +10.64%, Excess +3.44%, Beat mkt rate 55.6%；120-day: Win 69.2%, Sample 26, Median +13.74%, Excess +2.74%, Beat mkt rate 61.5%

120 days after: historical avg +11.31%

20-day +6.14%
60-day +7.96%
120-day +11.31%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
77.8%
77.8%
69.2%
Sample
27
27
26
Median
+6.99%
+10.64%
+13.74%
Excess
+3.73%
+3.44%
+2.74%
Beat mkt rate
63%
55.6%
61.5%

Over 26 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 11.31%, beat the market by 2.74 pts; win rate 69.2%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 166+44.6% +49% 84.9% +10.1%
20-40 129+50.5% +55.5% 100% +24.7%
40-60 340+59.2% +64.1% 96.5% +38.6%
60-80 You are here286+20.8% +19.4% 80.4% +8.2%
80-100 468+13.2% +6.8% 67.9% +10.3%

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 53.62, placing it in the 75.3 own-history percentile, inside the 60-80 bucket.

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
+19.8%
Win rate 87.8% Excess +7.3%
164d
+25.4%
Win rate 85.7% Excess +16%
475d
Now
+7.5%
Win rate 57.5% Excess +3.8%
438d
60-day momentum down
+32.8%
Win rate 92.4% Excess +15.9%
105d
+14.1%
Win rate 83.2% Excess +1.7%
107d
+11%
Win rate 85.5% Excess +10.3%
220d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top third) × 60-day momentum up”: across 438 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 7.5%, win rate 57.5%, beat the market by 3.8%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 97,878 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.26%, a 58.3% positive-return rate, and +2.90 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

21 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.88%, win rate 75%, beating the market by +2.23 pts on average.

Filed revenue acceleration

Pending

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.