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MRCY

Mercury Systems, Inc. Industrials As of 2026-06-18
Quality Weak
Valuation Cheaper
Risk High vol
Active signals Active 52-week adjusted-price high Top-quintile 6-month momentum
113.91 Close (USD)
+52.92% 60-day
  • Quality is weaker than peers. Operating margin is only around the 38th percentile. TTM ROE is about -0.9%.
  • Valuation is cheaper than most peers. TTM P/E is in the 3th percentile, lower than most liquid US common stocks.
  • Recent volatility is elevated. 60-day annualized volatility is in the 72th percentile. Average 20-day dollar volume is about $86.3M.
  • Signals are active now. 52-week adjusted-price high, Top-quintile 6-month momentum currently holds; the tables below show what followed in this stock’s own history.

Factor profile

Factor radar Neutral Valuation
56
ValuationQualityGrowthMomentumRisk / liquidity

Valuation

Indicators in this group are ranked by market percentile; lower valuation and volatility are better.

56 Neutral
TTM P/E -134.3
Cheap
Price / book 4.58
Expensive
Free-cash-flow yield (%) 1.04
Good

Historical evidence

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

52-week adjusted-price high

Active

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

17 historical occurrences (since 2017-01-24)
Average forward return after 52-week adjusted-price high。20-day: Win 43.8%, Sample 16, Median -0.63%, Excess +0.33%, Beat mkt rate 43.8%；60-day: Win 68.8%, Sample 16, Median +7.16%, Excess +4.22%, Beat mkt rate 62.5%；120-day: Win 80%, Sample 15, Median +20.97%, Excess +10.42%, Beat mkt rate 73.3%

120 days after: historical avg +18.58%

20-day +1.82%
60-day +7.64%
120-day +18.58%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
43.8%
68.8%
80%
Sample
16
16
15
Median
-0.63%
+7.16%
+20.97%
Excess
+0.33%
+4.22%
+10.42%
Beat mkt rate
43.8%
62.5%
73.3%

Over 15 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 18.58%, beat the market by 10.42 pts; win rate 80%.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 85.2542372881356%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

28 historical occurrences (since 2016-07-05)
Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum。20-day: Win 66.7%, Sample 27, Median +4.31%, Excess +1.17%, Beat mkt rate 70.4%；60-day: Win 74.1%, Sample 27, Median +9.08%, Excess +7.84%, Beat mkt rate 66.7%；120-day: Win 77.8%, Sample 27, Median +23.63%, Excess +13.21%, Beat mkt rate 74.1%

120 days after: historical avg +20.31%

20-day +2.18%
60-day +10.63%
120-day +20.31%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
66.7%
74.1%
77.8%
Sample
27
27
27
Median
+4.31%
+9.08%
+23.63%
Excess
+1.17%
+7.84%
+13.21%
Beat mkt rate
70.4%
66.7%
74.1%

Over 27 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 20.31%, beat the market by 13.21 pts; win rate 77.8%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 You are here385-14.9% -15.1% 13.2% -16.9%
20-40 112-19.3% -15.9% 6.2% -47.9%
40-60 96-2.3% -1.9% 41.7% -27.1%
60-80 61-5.5% -5.2% 37.7% -26.7%
80-100 37-9.4% -8.6% 0% -24.5%

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 25.33, placing it in the 0.1 own-history percentile, inside the 0-20 bucket.

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
-11.6%
Win rate 26.2% Excess -11.2%
233d
-6.6%
Win rate 24.4% Excess -18.7%
86d
-6.7%
Win rate 22.4% Excess -6.4%
58d
60-day momentum down
Now
-3.5%
Win rate 43.3% Excess -11.3%
351d
+10.9%
Win rate 78.9% Excess +8%
71d
Insufficient data
(6d)

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom third) × 60-day momentum down”: across 351 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 3.5%, win rate 43.3%, lagged the market by 11.3%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 94,737 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.40%, a 58.3% positive-return rate, and +3.10 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

Filed revenue acceleration

Pending

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

5 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7.09%, win rate 80%, beating the market by +5.66 pts on average.

EPS surprise beat

Pending

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

30 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7.04%, win rate 69.2%, beating the market by +3.56 pts on average.

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Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.