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NTRA Natera, Inc.

Healthcare

quality needs a look, discounted valuation.

Quality
Weak
Valuation
Cheaper
Key signals
52-week adjusted-price high Top-quintile 6-month momentum Filed revenue acceleration
345.34
345.34 Close (USD) Loading candles…

Is Natera, Inc. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Quality is weaker than peers. Operating margin is only around the 24th percentile. TTM ROE is about -12.8%.

  • Valuation is cheaper than most peers. TTM P/E is in the 2th percentile, lower than most liquid US common stocks.

  • Recent volatility is moderate. 60-day annualized volatility is near the 64th percentile. Average 20-day dollar volume is about $379.7M.

  • Signals are active now. 52-week adjusted-price high, Top-quintile 6-month momentum, Filed revenue acceleration currently holds; the tables below show what followed in this stock’s own history.

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Historical evidence

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

52-week adjusted-price high

Active

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

28 historical occurrences (since 2017-09-07)
Average forward return after 52-week adjusted-price high。20-day: Win 53.6%, Sample 28, Median +0.42%, Excess -1.87%, Beat mkt rate 39.3%；60-day: Win 57.7%, Sample 26, Median +13.51%, Excess +7.4%, Beat mkt rate 57.7%；120-day: Win 73.1%, Sample 26, Median +14.12%, Excess +11.53%, Beat mkt rate 65.4%

120 days after: historical avg +19.88%

20-day +0.07%
60-day +11.65%
120-day +19.88%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
53.6%
57.7%
73.1%
Sample
28
26
26
Median
+0.42%
+13.51%
+14.12%
Excess
-1.87%
+7.4%
+11.53%
Beat mkt rate
39.3%
57.7%
65.4%

Over 26 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 19.88%, beat the market by 11.53 pts; win rate 73.1%.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 93.22033898305084%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

31 historical occurrences (since 2016-07-12)
Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum。20-day: Win 45.2%, Sample 31, Median -0.34%, Excess -0.39%, Beat mkt rate 48.4%；60-day: Win 56.7%, Sample 30, Median +6.64%, Excess +8.63%, Beat mkt rate 53.3%；120-day: Win 72.4%, Sample 29, Median +16.02%, Excess +14.82%, Beat mkt rate 62.1%

120 days after: historical avg +22%

20-day +0.31%
60-day +12.51%
120-day +22%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
45.2%
56.7%
72.4%
Sample
31
30
29
Median
-0.34%
+6.64%
+16.02%
Excess
-0.39%
+8.63%
+14.82%
Beat mkt rate
48.4%
53.3%
62.1%

Over 29 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 22%, beat the market by 14.82 pts; win rate 72.4%.

Filed revenue acceleration

Active · now 36.588039322774435%

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

20 historical occurrences (since 2018-05-10)
Average forward return after Filed revenue acceleration。20-day: Win 60%, Sample 20, Median +1.94%, Excess -3.27%, Beat mkt rate 60%；60-day: Win 70%, Sample 20, Median +8.3%, Excess +7.01%, Beat mkt rate 60%；120-day: Win 68.4%, Sample 19, Median +12.08%, Excess +10.14%, Beat mkt rate 63.2%

120 days after: historical avg +14.62%

20-day -2.48%
60-day +9.89%
120-day +14.62%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
60%
70%
68.4%
Sample
20
20
19
Median
+1.94%
+8.3%
+12.08%
Excess
-3.27%
+7.01%
+10.14%
Beat mkt rate
60%
60%
63.2%

Over 19 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 14.62%, beat the market by 10.14 pts; win rate 68.4%.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 98,524 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.12%, a 57.9% positive-return rate, and +2.77 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

EPS surprise beat

Pending

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

17 times historically; 60-day forward avg +18.11%, win rate 75%, beating the market by +13.97 pts on average.

Continue researching Natera, Inc. with the evidence above.

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Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.