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NTRA

Natera, Inc. Healthcare As of 2026-06-18
Quality Weak
Valuation Cheaper
Risk High vol
Active signals Active Filed revenue acceleration
231.41 Close (USD)
+18.96% 60-day
  • Quality is weaker than peers. Operating margin is only around the 24th percentile. TTM ROE is about -12.8%.
  • Valuation is cheaper than most peers. TTM P/E is in the 2th percentile, lower than most liquid US common stocks.
  • Recent volatility is elevated. 60-day annualized volatility is in the 72th percentile. Average 20-day dollar volume is about $295.2M.
  • Signals are active now. Filed revenue acceleration currently holds; the tables below show what followed in this stock’s own history.

Factor profile

Factor radar Neutral Valuation
50
ValuationQualityGrowthMomentumRisk / liquidity

Valuation

Indicators in this group are ranked by market percentile; lower valuation and volatility are better.

50 Neutral
TTM P/E -141.97
Cheap
Price / book 18.46
Expensive
Free-cash-flow yield (%) 0.28
Average

Historical evidence

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

Filed revenue acceleration

Active · now 36.588039322774435%

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

20 historical occurrences (since 2018-05-10)
Average forward return after Filed revenue acceleration。20-day: Win 60%, Sample 20, Median +1.94%, Excess -3.27%, Beat mkt rate 60%；60-day: Win 68.4%, Sample 19, Median +7.74%, Excess +5.44%, Beat mkt rate 57.9%；120-day: Win 68.4%, Sample 19, Median +12.08%, Excess +10.14%, Beat mkt rate 63.2%

120 days after: historical avg +14.62%

20-day -2.48%
60-day +8.23%
120-day +14.62%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
60%
68.4%
68.4%
Sample
20
19
19
Median
+1.94%
+7.74%
+12.08%
Excess
-3.27%
+5.44%
+10.14%
Beat mkt rate
60%
57.9%
63.2%

Over 19 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 14.62%, beat the market by 10.14 pts; win rate 68.4%.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 94,737 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.40%, a 58.3% positive-return rate, and +3.10 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

26 times historically; 60-day forward avg +11.65%, win rate 57.7%, beating the market by +7.4 pts on average.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Pending

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

30 times historically; 60-day forward avg +11.86%, win rate 55.2%, beating the market by +7.94 pts on average.

EPS surprise beat

Pending

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

17 times historically; 60-day forward avg +18.11%, win rate 75%, beating the market by +13.97 pts on average.

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Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.