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UGL ProShares - Ultra Gold

ETF

46.45

Close 10/9

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Price and fund-flow snapshot

As of 2026-10-09

Risk / liquidity: Weak.

Momentum Neutral 60-day return is Top, but 240-day return is Lagging.
60-day return (%) 8.55 83th percentile Top
240-day return (%) -9.52 18th percentile Lagging
Risk / liquidity Weak 20-day dollar volume is Average; 60-day annualized volatility is Lagging.
60-day annualized volatility (%) 48.68 84th percentile Lagging
Distance from peak (%) -45.75 16th percentile Lagging
20-day dollar volume 134,416,139 26th percentile Average

ProShares - Ultra Gold (UGL) today

1 quant signals active · As of 2026-10-09

Win rate and excess are historical post-trigger stats vs the market. Click a signal for its full definition and samples; history does not predict future results.

ProShares - Ultra Gold (UGL) peers and tracking

Watchlist

This page refreshes daily after the close. Add ProShares - Ultra Gold to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.

ProShares - Ultra Gold (UGL) quant signal backtests

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this ETF’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

20% below its peak

Active · now -45.75%

Adjusted close first falls 20% or more below its highest level so far; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

19 historical occurrences (since 2016-11-11)
Average forward return after 20% below its peak。20-day: Win 47.4%, Sample 19, Median -0.11%, Excess -1.5%, Beat mkt rate 36.8%；60-day: Win 31.6%, Sample 19, Median -6.9%, Excess -9.64%, Beat mkt rate 31.6%；120-day: Win 36.8%, Sample 19, Median -6.15%, Excess -9.82%, Beat mkt rate 31.6%

120 days after: historical avg -2.08%

20-day +1.19%
60-day -4.11%
120-day -2.08%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
47.4%
31.6%
36.8%
Sample
19
19
19
Median
-0.11%
-6.9%
-6.15%
Excess
-1.5%
-9.64%
-9.82%
Beat mkt rate
36.8%
31.6%
31.6%

Over 19 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 2.08%, lagged the market by 9.82 pts; win rate 36.8%.

More history: Holding-period returns in its own history, Signals not active now

Holding-period returns in its own history

Since 2016-01-04, 65.4% of 2,456 one-year holding periods ended with a gain; the median one-year return was +13.5%. Over three-year holding periods, 83.4% of 1,952 ended with a gain (median +52.6%).

A holding period starts on every trading day, so periods overlap; they describe the historical distribution rather than independent outcomes.

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show this ETF’s historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

16 times historically; 60-day forward avg +8.63%, win rate 68.8%, beating the market by +6.64 pts on average.

Back above the 200-day average

Pending

Adjusted close crosses from below to above its 200-day moving average; repeated crosses within 20 days count once.

24 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.36%, win rate 60.9%, beating the market by -2.08 pts on average.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Pending

The ETF ranks in the top 20% of liquid US-listed ETFs by 126-day adjusted return.

25 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.32%, win rate 60%, beating the market by +3.14 pts on average.

Continue researching ProShares - Ultra Gold with the evidence above.

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Method and limits

  • Returns use us_fund_price:adj_close (finlab data.set_market('us_fund')), adjusted for splits and for distributions where the data includes them.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC, the S&P 500 price index without dividends, as the benchmark.
  • Percentiles and the 6-month momentum signal compare against the most liquid US-listed ETFs by 20-day dollar volume; mutual funds are excluded.
  • Category labels come from the fund data where it provides one (bond, income, crypto) and from the fund name for leveraged, inverse and commodity ETFs.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.
  • This ETF seeks a multiple of its index’s daily return, or the inverse of it, and resets that exposure every day. Over periods longer than a day its return compounds the daily moves and can differ substantially from that multiple of the index’s return, more so when the index is volatile.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.