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VCTR

Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. Financial Services As of 2026-08-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, premium valuation.

4 active signals
52-week adjusted-price high Top-quintile 6-month momentum Filed revenue acceleration EPS surprise beat
Valuation 39Quality 84Growth 73Momentum 89Risk / liquidity 73

Is Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Quality is top-tier. Operating margin ranks above roughly 90% of the liquid US common-stock universe. TTM ROE is about 16.1%.

  • Valuation is expensive. TTM P/E is in the 80th percentile, above most peers.

  • Recent volatility is moderate. 60-day annualized volatility is near the 33th percentile. Average 20-day dollar volume is about $59.8M.

  • Signals are active now. 52-week adjusted-price high, Top-quintile 6-month momentum, Filed revenue acceleration currently holds; the tables below show what followed in this stock’s own history.

Watchlist

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Historical evidence

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

52-week adjusted-price high

Active

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

23 historical occurrences (since 2019-03-11)
Average forward return after 52-week adjusted-price high。20-day: Win 69.6%, Sample 23, Median +2.85%, Excess +1.9%, Beat mkt rate 65.2%；60-day: Win 71.4%, Sample 21, Median +13.32%, Excess +5.28%, Beat mkt rate 66.7%；120-day: Win 60%, Sample 20, Median +15.63%, Excess +6.04%, Beat mkt rate 60%

120 days after: historical avg +12.08%

20-day +3.29%
60-day +8.92%
120-day +12.08%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
69.6%
71.4%
60%
Sample
23
21
20
Median
+2.85%
+13.32%
+15.63%
Excess
+1.9%
+5.28%
+6.04%
Beat mkt rate
65.2%
66.7%
60%

Over 20 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 12.08%, beat the market by 6.04 pts; win rate 60%.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 90.33898305084746%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

19 historical occurrences (since 2018-11-12)
Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum。20-day: Win 57.9%, Sample 19, Median +1.07%, Excess -2.02%, Beat mkt rate 42.1%；60-day: Win 50%, Sample 18, Median +2.81%, Excess +2.03%, Beat mkt rate 50%；120-day: Win 58.8%, Sample 17, Median +7.28%, Excess +4.33%, Beat mkt rate 47.1%

120 days after: historical avg +12.04%

20-day +0.34%
60-day +5.9%
120-day +12.04%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
57.9%
50%
58.8%
Sample
19
18
17
Median
+1.07%
+2.81%
+7.28%
Excess
-2.02%
+2.03%
+4.33%
Beat mkt rate
42.1%
50%
47.1%

Over 17 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 12.04%, beat the market by 4.33 pts; win rate 58.8%.

Filed revenue acceleration

Active · now 64.38941532864777%

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

10 historical occurrences (since 2019-11-13)
Average forward return after Filed revenue acceleration。20-day: Win 60%, Sample 10, Median +1.88%, Excess +0.81%, Beat mkt rate 60%；60-day: Win 70%, Sample 10, Median +15.96%, Excess +4.39%, Beat mkt rate 70%；120-day: Win 75%, Sample 8, Median +13.5%, Excess +0.97%, Beat mkt rate 50%

120 days after: historical avg +8.13%

20-day +3.23%
60-day +10.88%
120-day +8.13%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
60%
70%
75%
Sample
10
10
8
Median
+1.88%
+15.96%
+13.5%
Excess
+0.81%
+4.39%
+0.97%
Beat mkt rate
60%
70%
50%

Over 8 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 8.13%, beat the market by 0.97 pts; win rate 75%.

EPS surprise beat

Active · now 23.463687150837984%

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

8 historical occurrences (since 2018-03-26)
Average forward return after EPS surprise beat。20-day: Win 71.4%, Sample 7, Median +6.45%, Excess +0.59%, Beat mkt rate 57.1%；60-day: Win 57.1%, Sample 7, Median +8.36%, Excess +0.39%, Beat mkt rate 42.9%；120-day: Win 83.3%, Sample 6, Median +7.03%, Excess +2.69%, Beat mkt rate 50%

120 days after: historical avg +13.39%

20-day +2.64%
60-day +5.39%
120-day +13.39%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
71.4%
57.1%
83.3%
Sample
7
7
6
Median
+6.45%
+8.36%
+7.03%
Excess
+0.59%
+0.39%
+2.69%
Beat mkt rate
57.1%
42.9%
50%

Over 6 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 13.39%, beat the market by 2.69 pts; win rate 83.3%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 271+15.6% +16% 87.5% +7.2%
20-40 287+9.5% -8% 41.5% +4.9%
40-60 115+37.3% +50.7% 74.8% +22.4%
60-80 390+34.8% +29.4% 91% +17.9%
80-100 You are here46+18.8% +8.5% 73.9% +3.1%

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 26.76, placing it in the 99.4 own-history percentile, inside the 80-100 bucket.

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
+10.1%
Win rate 81.8% Excess +4.5%
274d
+7.2%
Win rate 62% Excess +0.5%
213d
Now
+14%
Win rate 70.5% Excess +8.1%
356d
60-day momentum down
+0.5%
Win rate 50.5% Excess +3.9%
194d
+30.9%
Win rate 94.8% Excess +12.8%
97d
+23.9%
Win rate 87.4% Excess +15.2%
95d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top third) × 60-day momentum up”: across 356 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 14%, win rate 70.5%, beat the market by 8.1%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 97,937 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.21%, a 58.2% positive-return rate, and +2.85 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.