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VUG Vanguard Morningstar Growth ETF

ETF

91.97

Close 10/9

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Price and fund-flow snapshot

As of 2026-10-09

Momentum: Good, Risk / liquidity: Good.

Momentum Good All 2 indicators are Good.
60-day return (%) 6.36 79th percentile Good
240-day return (%) 12.95 62th percentile Good
Risk / liquidity Good Distance from peak is Top, but 60-day annualized volatility is Average.
60-day annualized volatility (%) 15.85 54th percentile Average
Distance from peak (%) -0.72 87th percentile Top
20-day dollar volume 513,631,721 76th percentile Good

Vanguard Morningstar Growth ETF (VUG) today

2 quant signals active · As of 2026-10-09

Win rate and excess are historical post-trigger stats vs the market. Click a signal for its full definition and samples; history does not predict future results.

Vanguard Morningstar Growth ETF (VUG) peers and tracking

Watchlist

This page refreshes daily after the close. Add Vanguard Morningstar Growth ETF to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.

Vanguard Morningstar Growth ETF (VUG) quant signal backtests

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this ETF’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

52-week adjusted-price high

Active

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

27 historical occurrences (since 2017-01-06)
Average forward return after 52-week adjusted-price high。20-day: Win 73.1%, Sample 26, Median +2.09%, Excess +0.66%, Beat mkt rate 61.5%；60-day: Win 80.8%, Sample 26, Median +4.51%, Excess +0.5%, Beat mkt rate 65.4%；120-day: Win 64%, Sample 25, Median +6.57%, Excess +0.19%, Beat mkt rate 64%

120 days after: historical avg +2.67%

20-day +1.69%
60-day +3.14%
120-day +2.67%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
73.1%
80.8%
64%
Sample
26
26
25
Median
+2.09%
+4.51%
+6.57%
Excess
+0.66%
+0.5%
+0.19%
Beat mkt rate
61.5%
65.4%
64%

Over 25 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 2.67%, beat the market by 0.19 pts; win rate 64%.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 85.21%

The ETF ranks in the top 20% of liquid US-listed ETFs by 126-day adjusted return.

30 historical occurrences (since 2017-05-12)
Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum。20-day: Win 75.9%, Sample 29, Median +2.55%, Excess +0.68%, Beat mkt rate 69%；60-day: Win 82.1%, Sample 28, Median +5.8%, Excess +1.72%, Beat mkt rate 82.1%；120-day: Win 85.7%, Sample 28, Median +10.18%, Excess +2.26%, Beat mkt rate 75%

120 days after: historical avg +9.7%

20-day +2.12%
60-day +5.26%
120-day +9.7%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
75.9%
82.1%
85.7%
Sample
29
28
28
Median
+2.55%
+5.8%
+10.18%
Excess
+0.68%
+1.72%
+2.26%
Beat mkt rate
69%
82.1%
75%

Over 28 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 9.7%, beat the market by 2.26 pts; win rate 85.7%.

More history: Holding-period returns in its own history, Signals not active now

Holding-period returns in its own history

Since 2016-01-04, 87.0% of 2,456 one-year holding periods ended with a gain; the median one-year return was +19.7%. Over three-year holding periods, 100.0% of 1,952 ended with a gain (median +53.9%).

A holding period starts on every trading day, so periods overlap; they describe the historical distribution rather than independent outcomes.

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show this ETF’s historical forward-return distribution for context.

20% below its peak

Pending

Adjusted close first falls 20% or more below its highest level so far; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

8 times historically; 60-day forward avg +11.34%, win rate 62.5%, beating the market by +2.06 pts on average.

Back above the 200-day average

Pending

Adjusted close crosses from below to above its 200-day moving average; repeated crosses within 20 days count once.

13 times historically; 60-day forward avg +8.98%, win rate 84.6%, beating the market by +3.49 pts on average.

Continue researching Vanguard Morningstar Growth ETF with the evidence above.

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Method and limits

  • Returns use us_fund_price:adj_close (finlab data.set_market('us_fund')), adjusted for splits and for distributions where the data includes them.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC, the S&P 500 price index without dividends, as the benchmark.
  • Percentiles and the 6-month momentum signal compare against the most liquid US-listed ETFs by 20-day dollar volume; mutual funds are excluded.
  • Category labels come from the fund data where it provides one (bond, income, crypto) and from the fund name for leveraged, inverse and commodity ETFs.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.
  • us_fund_price:adj_close records this ETF’s distributions regularly only from 2026-06-26; returns before that date mostly reflect price changes and splits, so they understate its total return.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.