BND vs AGG: Returns, Drawdowns and Dividends Since 2016
BND (Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF) and AGG (iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF) moved almost in lockstep: their daily returns had a correlation of 0.960, where 1 would mean identical. BND came out ahead, returning 1.9% a year with dividends reinvested from January 2016 to November 2026, against 1.8% for AGG.
Bought on any day and held five years, BND finished ahead 99% of the time. Both fell about 18% at their worst, in October 2022.
| Measure | BND | AGG |
|---|---|---|
| Annual return | 1.9% | 1.8% |
| $10,000 grew to | $12,241 | $12,136 |
| Worst decline | −18.4%Oct 2022 | −18.4%Oct 2022 |
| Volatility Volatility How much the fund's daily returns swing: their standard deviation over this period, annualized with the square root of 252 trading days. | 5.4% | 5.3% |
| Sharpe ratio Sharpe ratio Return above T-bills for each unit of risk: daily returns minus the T-bill ETF BIL, averaged, divided by their standard deviation and annualized. Higher is better. T-bill funds show none. Sharpe ratio calculator | -0.02 | -0.04 |
| 12-month yield 12-month yield Cash dividends with ex-dividend dates in the past 12 months, divided by the latest closing price. | 4.1% | 4.1% |
| Best year | +8.8%2019 | +8.5%2019 |
| Worst year | −12.9%2022 | −13.0%2022 |
| Correlation between them Correlation How closely the two funds' daily returns moved together over this period: 1 means identical every day, 0 means no relation. | 0.960 | |
BND: Vanguard Total Bond Market ETFAGG: iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF
Jan 4, 2016 to Nov 6, 2026, dividends reinvested.
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Worst declines
BND fell 18.4% from Aug 6, 2020 to Oct 20, 2022 and had not regained that high by Nov 6, 2026. AGG fell 18.4% from Aug 4, 2020 to Oct 20, 2022 and had not regained that high by Nov 6, 2026.
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Year by year
BND was ahead in 8 of the 11 calendar years.
| Year | BND | AGG | Ahead (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (to Nov 6) | −0.0% | +0.0% | Even |
| 2025 | +7.1% | +7.2% | AGG+0.1 |
| 2024 | +1.4% | +1.3% | BND+0.1 |
| 2023 | +5.7% | +5.7% | Even |
| 2022 | −12.9% | −13.0% | BND+0.1 |
| 2021 | −1.9% | −1.8% | AGG+0.1 |
| 2020 | +7.7% | +7.5% | BND+0.2 |
| 2019 | +8.8% | +8.5% | BND+0.4 |
| 2018 | +0.3% | +0.1% | BND+0.2 |
| 2017 | +3.6% | +3.6% | Even |
| 2016 (from Jan 4) | +2.6% | +2.5% | BND+0.1 |
Held for 1, 3 or 5 years: which came out ahead
Buy on any trading day from Jan 4, 2016, hold for a set time, and see which fund ended higher. The periods overlap, so they show how much the start date mattered, not separate results.
| Hold | Days tested | Ahead more often | Median lead (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | 2,476 | BND66% | +0.1 |
| 3 years | 1,972 | BND90% | +0.3 |
| 5 years | 1,468 | BND99% | +0.5 |
Median lead is the typical gap in total return across all start dates, in percentage points. The latest 5-year hold starts on Oct 29, 2021.
Dividends
Over the past 12 months BND paid 4.1% of its price in dividends and AGG 4.1%. The returns above already include them, reinvested on each ex-dividend date.
Dividends per share by year
| Year | BND | AGG |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 (to Nov 6) | $2.47 10 payments | $3.32 10 payments |
| 2025 | $2.86 12 payments | $3.88 12 payments |
| 2024 | $2.64 12 payments | $3.63 12 payments |
| 2023 | $2.27 12 payments | $3.11 12 payments |
| 2022 | $2.02 12 payments | $2.32 12 payments |
| 2021 | $1.80 12 payments | $2.02 12 payments |
| 2020 | $2.10 12 payments | $2.53 12 payments |
| 2019 | $2.28 12 payments | $3.04 12 payments |
| 2018 | $2.58 13 payments | $2.89 12 payments |
| 2017 | $2.08 12 payments | $2.54 12 payments |
| 2016 (from Jan 4) | $2.03 12 payments | $2.59 12 payments |
Per share in today's shares (earlier amounts are restated for share splits), by ex-dividend date.
The two funds
- BND
- Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF, an ETF launched Apr 10, 2007. FinLab prices start Jan 4, 2016.
- BND price and signal backtests
- AGG
- iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF, an ETF launched Sep 29, 2003. FinLab prices start Jan 4, 2016.
- AGG price and signal backtests
More comparisons
Source: FinLab U.S. fund prices, Jan 4, 2016 to Nov 6, 2026, the days both funds traded. Returns use prices adjusted for dividends and splits, before taxes; annual return is compounded.
For research and education. Past returns do not guarantee future results, and this is not investment advice.