MGK vs QQQ: Returns, Drawdowns and Dividends Since 2016
MGK (Vanguard Morningstar Mega Cap Growth ETF) and QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1) moved almost in lockstep: their daily returns had a correlation of 0.982, where 1 would mean identical. QQQ came out ahead, returning 19.4% a year with dividends reinvested from January 2016 to November 2026, against 17.7% for MGK.
Bought on any day and held five years, QQQ finished ahead 91% of the time. Both fell about 36% at their worst, in November 2022.
| Measure | MGK | QQQ |
|---|---|---|
| Annual return | 17.7% | 19.4% |
| $10,000 grew to | $58,482 | $68,269 |
| Worst decline | −36.0%Nov 2022 | −35.1%Nov 2022 |
| Volatility Volatility How much the fund's daily returns swing: their standard deviation over this period, annualized with the square root of 252 trading days. | 21.6% | 22.2% |
| Sharpe ratio Sharpe ratio Return above T-bills for each unit of risk: daily returns minus the T-bill ETF BIL, averaged, divided by their standard deviation and annualized. Higher is better. T-bill funds show none. Sharpe ratio calculator | 0.77 | 0.81 |
| 12-month yield 12-month yield Cash dividends with ex-dividend dates in the past 12 months, divided by the latest closing price. | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| Best year | +51.7%2023 | +54.9%2023 |
| Worst year | −33.6%2022 | −32.6%2022 |
| Correlation between them Correlation How closely the two funds' daily returns moved together over this period: 1 means identical every day, 0 means no relation. | 0.982 | |
MGK: Vanguard Morningstar Mega Cap Growth ETFQQQ: Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Jan 4, 2016 to Nov 4, 2026, dividends reinvested.
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Worst declines
MGK fell 36.0% from Dec 27, 2021 to Nov 3, 2022 and was back at its high on Jan 12, 2024. QQQ fell 35.1% from Dec 27, 2021 to Nov 3, 2022 and was back at its high on Dec 13, 2023.
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Year by year
MGK was ahead in 2 of the 11 calendar years.
| Year | MGK | QQQ | Ahead (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (to Nov 4) | +6.6% | +13.0% | QQQ+6.4 |
| 2025 | +20.7% | +20.8% | QQQ+0.1 |
| 2024 | +32.9% | +25.6% | MGK+7.4 |
| 2023 | +51.7% | +54.9% | QQQ+3.2 |
| 2022 | −33.6% | −32.6% | QQQ+1.0 |
| 2021 | +28.6% | +27.4% | MGK+1.2 |
| 2020 | +41.0% | +48.6% | QQQ+7.6 |
| 2019 | +37.4% | +39.0% | QQQ+1.6 |
| 2018 | −2.9% | −0.1% | QQQ+2.8 |
| 2017 | +29.5% | +32.7% | QQQ+3.1 |
| 2016 (from Jan 4) | +8.4% | +9.4% | QQQ+1.0 |
Held for 1, 3 or 5 years: which came out ahead
Buy on any trading day from Jan 4, 2016, hold for a set time, and see which fund ended higher. The periods overlap, so they show how much the start date mattered, not separate results.
| Hold | Days tested | Ahead more often | Median lead (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | 2,474 | QQQ74% | +1.9 |
| 3 years | 1,970 | QQQ80% | +8.3 |
| 5 years | 1,466 | QQQ91% | +16.1 |
Median lead is the typical gap in total return across all start dates, in percentage points. The latest 5-year hold starts on Oct 27, 2021.
Dividends
Over the past 12 months MGK paid 0.3% of its price in dividends and QQQ 0.4%. The returns above already include them, reinvested on each ex-dividend date.
Dividends per share by year
| Year | MGK | QQQ |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 (to Nov 4) | $0.22 3 payments | $2.30 3 payments |
| 2025 | $0.29 4 payments | $2.79 4 payments |
| 2024 | $0.30 4 payments | $2.85 4 payments |
| 2023 | $0.26 4 payments | $2.54 5 payments |
| 2022 | $0.24 4 payments | $2.13 4 payments |
| 2021 | $0.22 4 payments | $1.70 4 payments |
| 2020 | $0.26 4 payments | $1.74 4 payments |
| 2019 | $0.25 4 payments | $1.58 4 payments |
| 2018 | $0.24 4 payments | $1.41 4 payments |
| 2017 | $0.27 4 payments | $1.30 4 payments |
| 2016 (from Jan 4) | $0.27 4 payments | $1.25 4 payments |
Per share in today's shares (earlier amounts are restated for share splits), by ex-dividend date.
The two funds
- MGK
- Vanguard Morningstar Mega Cap Growth ETF, an ETF launched Dec 17, 2007. FinLab prices start Jan 4, 2016.
- MGK price and signal backtests
- QQQ
- Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1, an ETF launched Mar 10, 1999. FinLab prices start Jan 4, 2016.
- QQQ price and signal backtests
More comparisons
Source: FinLab U.S. fund prices, Jan 4, 2016 to Nov 4, 2026, the days both funds traded. Returns use prices adjusted for dividends and splits, before taxes; annual return is compounded.
For research and education. Past returns do not guarantee future results, and this is not investment advice.