UPRO vs SPXL: Returns, Drawdowns and Dividends Since 2016
UPRO (ProShares - UltraPro S&P500) and SPXL (Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X Shares) moved almost in lockstep: their daily returns had a correlation of 0.9995, where 1 would mean identical. SPXL came out ahead, returning 28.9% a year with dividends reinvested from January 2016 to November 2026, against 28.8% for UPRO.
With returns this close, the choice comes down to cost and convenience: each fund's current expense ratio, from its issuer, and what your broker charges to trade it. Both fell about 77% at their worst, in March 2020.
| Measure | UPRO | SPXL |
|---|---|---|
| Annual return | 28.8% | 28.9% |
| $10,000 grew to | $155,778 | $157,056 |
| Worst decline | −76.8%Mar 2020 | −76.9%Mar 2020 |
| Volatility Volatility How much the fund's daily returns swing: their standard deviation over this period, annualized with the square root of 252 trading days. | 52.9% | 52.6% |
| Sharpe ratio Sharpe ratio Return above T-bills for each unit of risk: daily returns minus the T-bill ETF BIL, averaged, divided by their standard deviation and annualized. Higher is better. T-bill funds show none. Sharpe ratio calculator | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| 12-month yield 12-month yield Cash dividends with ex-dividend dates in the past 12 months, divided by the latest closing price. | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| Best year | +102.3%2019 | +102.8%2019 |
| Worst year | −56.8%2022 | −56.6%2022 |
| Correlation between them Correlation How closely the two funds' daily returns moved together over this period: 1 means identical every day, 0 means no relation. | 1.000 | |
UPRO: ProShares - UltraPro S&P500SPXL: Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X Shares
Jan 4, 2016 to Nov 4, 2026, dividends reinvested.
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Worst declines
UPRO fell 76.8% from Feb 19, 2020 to Mar 23, 2020 and was back at its high on Jan 8, 2021. SPXL fell 76.9% from Feb 19, 2020 to Mar 23, 2020 and was back at its high on Jan 8, 2021.
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Year by year
UPRO was ahead in 3 of the 11 calendar years.
| Year | UPRO | SPXL | Ahead (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (to Nov 4) | +28.0% | +28.4% | SPXL+0.4 |
| 2025 | +31.9% | +31.9% | Even |
| 2024 | +63.6% | +63.6% | Even |
| 2023 | +68.6% | +69.5% | SPXL+0.9 |
| 2022 | −56.8% | −56.6% | SPXL+0.3 |
| 2021 | +98.6% | +98.7% | SPXL+0.1 |
| 2020 | +10.1% | +9.6% | UPRO+0.4 |
| 2019 | +102.3% | +102.8% | SPXL+0.5 |
| 2018 | −25.2% | −25.1% | Even |
| 2017 | +71.4% | +71.0% | UPRO+0.4 |
| 2016 (from Jan 4) | +36.6% | +36.0% | UPRO+0.6 |
Held for 1, 3 or 5 years: which came out ahead
Buy on any trading day from Jan 4, 2016, hold for a set time, and see which fund ended higher. The periods overlap, so they show how much the start date mattered, not separate results.
| Hold | Days tested | Ahead more often | Median lead (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | 2,474 | SPXL56% | +0.1 |
| 3 years | 1,970 | SPXL70% | +0.4 |
| 5 years | 1,466 | SPXL76% | +2.3 |
Median lead is the typical gap in total return across all start dates, in percentage points. The latest 5-year hold starts on Oct 27, 2021.
Dividends
Over the past 12 months UPRO paid 0.8% of its price in dividends and SPXL 0.5%. The returns above already include them, reinvested on each ex-dividend date.
Dividends per share by year
| Year | UPRO | SPXL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 (to Nov 4) | $0.79 3 payments | $1.28 3 payments |
| 2025 | $0.97 4 payments | $1.52 4 payments |
| 2024 | $0.82 4 payments | $1.24 4 payments |
| 2023 | $0.40 4 payments | $1.02 4 payments |
| 2022 | $0.17 2 payments | $0.20 2 payments |
| 2021 | $0.04 2 payments | $0.16 2 payments |
| 2020 | $0.04 2 payments | $0.16 2 payments |
| 2019 | $0.14 3 payments | $0.56 2 payments |
| 2018 | $0.11 4 payments | $0.34 3 payments |
| 2017 | — | $1.72 2 payments |
| 2016 (from Jan 4) | $0.02 2 payments | — |
Per share in today's shares (earlier amounts are restated for share splits), by ex-dividend date.
The two funds
- UPRO
- ProShares - UltraPro S&P500, an ETF launched Jun 25, 2009. FinLab prices start Jan 4, 2016.
- UPRO price and signal backtests
- SPXL
- Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X Shares, an ETF launched Nov 5, 2008. FinLab prices start Jan 4, 2016.
- SPXL price and signal backtests
More comparisons
Source: FinLab U.S. fund prices, Jan 4, 2016 to Nov 4, 2026, the days both funds traded. Returns use prices adjusted for dividends and splits, before taxes; annual return is compounded.
For research and education. Past returns do not guarantee future results, and this is not investment advice.