20% below its peak
Active · now -60.7%Adjusted close first falls 20% or more below its highest level so far; repeated hits within 20 days count once.
Average forward return after 20% below its peak
20-day: Win 28.6%, Sample 7, Median -3.0%, Excess -1.1%, Beat mkt rate 42.9%
60-day: Win 57.1%, Sample 7, Median +16.0%, Excess +13.2%, Beat mkt rate 71.4%
120-day: Win 71.4%, Sample 7, Median +43.6%, Excess +31.3%, Beat mkt rate 71.4%
120 days after: historical avg +37.7%
Over 7 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 37.7%, beat the market by 31.3 pts; win rate 71.4%.