20% below its peak
Active · now -44.92%Adjusted close first falls 20% or more below its highest level so far; repeated hits within 20 days count once.
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
ETF
77.98
Close 10/9
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Price and fund-flow snapshot
As of 2026-10-09
Risk / liquidity: Good; Momentum: Weak.
Momentum Weak All 2 indicators are Lagging.
60-day return (%) -6.29 12th percentile Lagging
240-day return (%) -11.11 14th percentile Lagging
Risk / liquidity Good 20-day dollar volume is Top, but Distance from peak is Lagging.
60-day annualized volatility (%) 10.19 31th percentile Good
Distance from peak (%) -44.92 15th percentile Lagging
20-day dollar volume 3,858,732,901 98th percentile Top
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) peers and tracking
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iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) quant signal backtests
Signals active now
Each active condition is tested against this ETF’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.
More history: Holding-period returns in its own history, Signals not active now
Holding-period returns in its own history
Since 2016-01-04, 40.6% of 2,456 one-year holding periods ended with a gain; the median one-year return was -2.5%. Over three-year holding periods, 44.4% of 1,952 ended with a gain (median -4.0%).
A holding period starts on every trading day, so periods overlap; they describe the historical distribution rather than independent outcomes.
Signals not active now
Inactive signals still show this ETF’s historical forward-return distribution for context.
52-week adjusted-price high
PendingAdjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.
12 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.92%, win rate 50%, beating the market by -4.9 pts on average.
Back above the 200-day average
PendingAdjusted close crosses from below to above its 200-day moving average; repeated crosses within 20 days count once.
26 times historically; 60-day forward avg -2.07%, win rate 30.8%, beating the market by -5.74 pts on average.
Top-quintile 6-month momentum
PendingThe ETF ranks in the top 20% of liquid US-listed ETFs by 126-day adjusted return.
16 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.42%, win rate 81.2%, beating the market by -0.14 pts on average.
Continue researching iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF with the evidence above.
Continue in Studio ↗Method and limits
- Returns use us_fund_price:adj_close (finlab data.set_market('us_fund')), adjusted for splits and for distributions where the data includes them.
- Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC, the S&P 500 price index without dividends, as the benchmark.
- Percentiles and the 6-month momentum signal compare against the most liquid US-listed ETFs by 20-day dollar volume; mutual funds are excluded.
- Category labels come from the fund data where it provides one (bond, income, crypto) and from the fund name for leveraged, inverse and commodity ETFs.
- Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.
This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.