20% below its peak
Active · now -48.18% Adjusted close first falls 20% or more below its highest level so far; repeated hits within 20 days count once.
12 historical occurrences (since 2016-01-13)
Average forward return after 20% below its peak。20-day: Win 83.3%, Sample 12, Median +7.99%, Excess +9.42%, Beat mkt rate 66.7%;60-day: Win 75%, Sample 12, Median +11.19%, Excess +8.9%, Beat mkt rate 66.7%;120-day: Win 83.3%, Sample 12, Median +9.58%, Excess +12.38%, Beat mkt rate 41.7%
Stock avg forward return Market (same period)
120 days after: historical avg +21.11%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
83.3%
75%
83.3%
Sample
12
12
12
Median
+7.99%
+11.19%
+9.58%
Excess
+9.42%
+8.9%
+12.38%
Beat mkt rate
66.7%
66.7%
41.7%
Over 12 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 21.11%, beat the market by 12.38 pts; win rate 83.3%.
Back above the 200-day average
Active · now -4.43% Adjusted close crosses from below to above its 200-day moving average; repeated crosses within 20 days count once.
26 historical occurrences (since 2016-11-04)
Average forward return after Back above the 200-day average。20-day: Win 56%, Sample 25, Median +6%, Excess +3.49%, Beat mkt rate 56%;60-day: Win 68%, Sample 25, Median +18.83%, Excess +11.32%, Beat mkt rate 64%;120-day: Win 56%, Sample 25, Median +4.13%, Excess +6.83%, Beat mkt rate 48%
Stock avg forward return Market (same period)
120 days after: historical avg +14.79%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
56%
68%
56%
Sample
25
25
25
Median
+6%
+18.83%
+4.13%
Excess
+3.49%
+11.32%
+6.83%
Beat mkt rate
56%
64%
48%
Over 25 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 14.79%, beat the market by 6.83 pts; win rate 56%.