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UNG United States Natural Gas Fund LP

ETF

11.01

Close 10/9

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Price and fund-flow snapshot

As of 2026-10-09

Risk / liquidity: Weak.

Momentum Neutral 60-day return is Good, but 240-day return is Lagging.
60-day return (%) 5.66 76th percentile Good
240-day return (%) -15.11 13th percentile Lagging
Risk / liquidity Weak 20-day dollar volume is Good, but Distance from peak is Lagging.
60-day annualized volatility (%) 34.48 76th percentile Average
Distance from peak (%) -93 7th percentile Lagging
20-day dollar volume 336,385,965 63th percentile Good

United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG) today

1 quant signals active · As of 2026-10-09

Win rate and excess are historical post-trigger stats vs the market. Click a signal for its full definition and samples; history does not predict future results.

United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG) peers and tracking

Watchlist

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United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG) quant signal backtests

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this ETF’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

20% below its peak

Active · now -93%

Adjusted close first falls 20% or more below its highest level so far; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

8 historical occurrences (since 2016-02-04)
Average forward return after 20% below its peak。20-day: Win 12.5%, Sample 8, Median -10.58%, Excess -11.05%, Beat mkt rate 12.5%；60-day: Win 25%, Sample 8, Median -9.82%, Excess -12.93%, Beat mkt rate 12.5%；120-day: Win 12.5%, Sample 8, Median -16.26%, Excess -28.56%, Beat mkt rate 0%

120 days after: historical avg -21.47%

20-day -10.56%
60-day -9.24%
120-day -21.47%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
12.5%
25%
12.5%
Sample
8
8
8
Median
-10.58%
-9.82%
-16.26%
Excess
-11.05%
-12.93%
-28.56%
Beat mkt rate
12.5%
12.5%
0%

Over 8 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 21.47%, lagged the market by 28.56 pts; win rate 12.5%.

More history: Holding-period returns in its own history, Signals not active now

Holding-period returns in its own history

Since 2016-01-04, 29.0% of 2,456 one-year holding periods ended with a gain; the median one-year return was -20.5%. Over three-year holding periods, 7.9% of 1,952 ended with a gain (median -52.7%).

A holding period starts on every trading day, so periods overlap; they describe the historical distribution rather than independent outcomes.

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show this ETF’s historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

7 times historically; 60-day forward avg -6.52%, win rate 28.6%, beating the market by -0.78 pts on average.

Back above the 200-day average

Pending

Adjusted close crosses from below to above its 200-day moving average; repeated crosses within 20 days count once.

25 times historically; 60-day forward avg -8.39%, win rate 25%, beating the market by -12.32 pts on average.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Pending

The ETF ranks in the top 20% of liquid US-listed ETFs by 126-day adjusted return.

17 times historically; 60-day forward avg +6.29%, win rate 52.9%, beating the market by +5.65 pts on average.

Continue researching United States Natural Gas Fund LP with the evidence above.

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Method and limits

  • Returns use us_fund_price:adj_close (finlab data.set_market('us_fund')), adjusted for splits and for distributions where the data includes them.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC, the S&P 500 price index without dividends, as the benchmark.
  • Percentiles and the 6-month momentum signal compare against the most liquid US-listed ETFs by 20-day dollar volume; mutual funds are excluded.
  • Category labels come from the fund data where it provides one (bond, income, crypto) and from the fund name for leveraged, inverse and commodity ETFs.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.