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USO United States Oil Fund, LP

ETF

148.20

Close 10/9

52W 102.42 148.20
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Price and fund-flow snapshot

As of 2026-10-09

Momentum: Strong.

Momentum Strong All 2 indicators are Top.
60-day return (%) 24.22 95th percentile Top
240-day return (%) 102.51 96th percentile Top
Risk / liquidity Neutral 20-day dollar volume is Top, but 60-day annualized volatility is Lagging.
60-day annualized volatility (%) 50.05 85th percentile Lagging
Distance from peak (%) -8.44 50th percentile Average
20-day dollar volume 877,732,689 85th percentile Top

United States Oil Fund, LP (USO) today

1 quant signals active · As of 2026-10-09

Win rate and excess are historical post-trigger stats vs the market. Click a signal for its full definition and samples; history does not predict future results.

United States Oil Fund, LP (USO) peers and tracking

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United States Oil Fund, LP (USO) quant signal backtests

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this ETF’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 84.05%

The ETF ranks in the top 20% of liquid US-listed ETFs by 126-day adjusted return.

30 historical occurrences (since 2016-07-12)
Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum。20-day: Win 51.7%, Sample 29, Median +0.34%, Excess -0.46%, Beat mkt rate 48.3%；60-day: Win 44.8%, Sample 29, Median -2.38%, Excess -1.66%, Beat mkt rate 41.4%；120-day: Win 48.3%, Sample 29, Median -1.24%, Excess -2.31%, Beat mkt rate 34.5%

120 days after: historical avg +3.38%

20-day -0.15%
60-day -0.64%
120-day +3.38%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
51.7%
44.8%
48.3%
Sample
29
29
29
Median
+0.34%
-2.38%
-1.24%
Excess
-0.46%
-1.66%
-2.31%
Beat mkt rate
48.3%
41.4%
34.5%

Over 29 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 3.38%, lagged the market by 2.31 pts; win rate 48.3%.

More history: Holding-period returns in its own history, Signals not active now

Holding-period returns in its own history

Since 2016-01-04, 57.5% of 2,449 one-year holding periods ended with a gain; the median one-year return was +4.2%. Over three-year holding periods, 51.7% of 1,945 ended with a gain (median +1.7%).

A holding period starts on every trading day, so periods overlap; they describe the historical distribution rather than independent outcomes.

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show this ETF’s historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

15 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.08%, win rate 42.9%, beating the market by -0.99 pts on average.

20% below its peak

Pending

Adjusted close first falls 20% or more below its highest level so far; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

11 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.32%, win rate 60%, beating the market by -0.23 pts on average.

Back above the 200-day average

Pending

Adjusted close crosses from below to above its 200-day moving average; repeated crosses within 20 days count once.

27 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.88%, win rate 40.7%, beating the market by -0.35 pts on average.

Continue researching United States Oil Fund, LP with the evidence above.

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Method and limits

  • Returns use us_fund_price:adj_close (finlab data.set_market('us_fund')), adjusted for splits and for distributions where the data includes them.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC, the S&P 500 price index without dividends, as the benchmark.
  • Percentiles and the 6-month momentum signal compare against the most liquid US-listed ETFs by 20-day dollar volume; mutual funds are excluded.
  • Category labels come from the fund data where it provides one (bond, income, crypto) and from the fund name for leveraged, inverse and commodity ETFs.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.