20% below its peak
Active · now -41.16%Adjusted close first falls 20% or more below its highest level so far; repeated hits within 20 days count once.
VGLT Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF
ETF
50.18
Close 10/9
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Price and fund-flow snapshot
As of 2026-10-09
Momentum: Weak.
Momentum Weak All 2 indicators are Lagging.
60-day return (%) -5.84 15th percentile Lagging
240-day return (%) -9.81 15th percentile Lagging
Risk / liquidity Neutral 60-day annualized volatility is Good, but Distance from peak is Lagging.
60-day annualized volatility (%) 9.4 29th percentile Good
Distance from peak (%) -41.16 16th percentile Lagging
20-day dollar volume 228,870,718 49th percentile Average
Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) peers and tracking
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Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) quant signal backtests
Signals active now
Each active condition is tested against this ETF’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.
More history: Holding-period returns in its own history, Signals not active now
Holding-period returns in its own history
Since 2016-01-04, 41.9% of 2,456 one-year holding periods ended with a gain; the median one-year return was -2.0%. Over three-year holding periods, 47.8% of 1,952 ended with a gain (median -1.2%).
A holding period starts on every trading day, so periods overlap; they describe the historical distribution rather than independent outcomes.
Signals not active now
Inactive signals still show this ETF’s historical forward-return distribution for context.
52-week adjusted-price high
PendingAdjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.
11 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.51%, win rate 54.5%, beating the market by -2.49 pts on average.
Back above the 200-day average
PendingAdjusted close crosses from below to above its 200-day moving average; repeated crosses within 20 days count once.
23 times historically; 60-day forward avg -0.78%, win rate 34.8%, beating the market by -5.67 pts on average.
Top-quintile 6-month momentum
PendingThe ETF ranks in the top 20% of liquid US-listed ETFs by 126-day adjusted return.
12 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.51%, win rate 75%, beating the market by +1.26 pts on average.
Continue researching Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF with the evidence above.
Continue in Studio ↗Method and limits
- Returns use us_fund_price:adj_close (finlab data.set_market('us_fund')), adjusted for splits and for distributions where the data includes them.
- Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC, the S&P 500 price index without dividends, as the benchmark.
- Percentiles and the 6-month momentum signal compare against the most liquid US-listed ETFs by 20-day dollar volume; mutual funds are excluded.
- Category labels come from the fund data where it provides one (bond, income, crypto) and from the fund name for leveraged, inverse and commodity ETFs.
- Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.
This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.