20% below its peak
Active · now -24.5%Adjusted close first falls 20% or more below its highest level so far; repeated hits within 20 days count once.
Average forward return after 20% below its peak
20-day: Win 44.4%, Sample 9, Median -3.1%, Excess -2.1%, Beat mkt rate 33.3%
60-day: Win 87.5%, Sample 8, Median +6.3%, Excess +0.7%, Beat mkt rate 75.0%
120-day: Win 87.5%, Sample 8, Median +3.6%, Excess +1.8%, Beat mkt rate 75.0%
120 days after: historical avg +9.1%
Over 8 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 9.1%, beat the market by 1.8 pts; win rate 87.5%.