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2114

鑫永銓 Rubber As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
252d high
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 鑫永銓 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 68Quality 83Growth 47Momentum 50Chips 7

Is 鑫永銓 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~94% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 3.4%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 28th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 63th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -6.5% of volume (net sell).

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.82
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 元大-草屯 holds 1,242 lots
  • sellers have 81 lots left, ~80 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -1% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 元大-草屯 has accumulated 1,242 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 兆豐-員林 peaked at 35 lots, has sold 71%, 10 left, ~11 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +1.69pp, mid holders +1, retail -1.65pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -99 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
元大-草屯玉山-台南元大證券富邦-公益花旗環球永豐金證券
Distributing
兆豐-員林元大-豐原統一-基隆永豐金-員林元大-豐原站前富邦-陽明
Desks
own scale
永豐金-台中元大-竹山德信-中正凱基-中港
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 元大-草屯 +1,242
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 玉山-台南 +100
    sold 0%
  • 元大證券 +56
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 富邦-公益 +40
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 花旗環球 +38
    sold 12%· still adding
  • 永豐金證券 +35
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 兆豐-員林 10 left
    sold 71%· ~11 sessions to clear
  • 元大-豐原 13 left
    sold 50%· ~65 sessions to clear
  • 統一-基隆 14 left
    sold 42%· paused recently
  • 永豐金-員林 8 left
    sold 58%· ~7 sessions to clear
  • 元大-豐原站前 12 left
    sold 37%· ~20 sessions to clear
  • 富邦-陽明 7 left
    sold 59%· paused recently

Desks

  • 永豐金-台中 -517
    unclassified
  • 元大-竹山 -174
    unclassified
  • 德信-中正 -110
    unclassified
  • 凱基-中港 -109
    unclassified
Still selling 81 lots ~80 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +609 absorbed / -64 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -72 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

27 historical occurrences (since 2009-09-02)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 53.8%, Sample 26, Median +1.54%, Excess +2.73%, Beat mkt rate 57.7%；60-day: Win 65.4%, Sample 26, Median +10.32%, Excess +9%, Beat mkt rate 65.4%；120-day: Win 73.1%, Sample 26, Median +21.71%, Excess +15.93%, Beat mkt rate 65.4%

120 days after: historical avg +21.34%

20-day +3.79%
60-day +11.58%
120-day +21.34%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
53.8%
65.4%
73.1%
Sample
26
26
26
Median
+1.54%
+10.32%
+21.71%
Excess
+2.73%
+9%
+15.93%
Beat mkt rate
57.7%
65.4%
65.4%

Over 26 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 21.34%, beat the market by 15.93 pts; win rate 73.1%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 235-6.1% -9% 19.1% -8.1%
20-40 140+38.8% +41.6% 95.7% +21.1%
40-60 212+30.9% +18.2% 100% +8.9%
60-80 You are here915+18.7% +5.3% 71.1% -2.7%
80-100 1455+4.9% +1.3% 55.3% -10.9%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 15.55, at the 63.4th percentile of its own history (60-80 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
-14.3%
Win rate 3.4% Excess -5.4%
87d
Now
+11.9%
Win rate 79.8% Excess +3.6%
218d
+7.2%
Win rate 60.4% Excess -1.9%
1527d
60-day momentum down
+0.6%
Win rate 51.6% Excess 0%
215d
+9.1%
Win rate 88.4% Excess -2.3%
258d
+2%
Win rate 52.3% Excess -8.9%
771d

Currently in “Mid × 60-day momentum up”: across 218 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 11.9%, win rate 79.8%, beat the market by 3.6%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Pending

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

63 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.13%, win rate 59.3%, beating the market by +3.85 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

47 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.95%, win rate 46.7%, beating the market by -2.01 pts on average.

What does 鑫永銓 do? Company profile

橡膠工業 上市

Overview

鑫永銓股份有限公司成立於1969年8月22日，總部與主要廠區位於南投市南崗工業區南崗三路294號，前身為新永全工業股份有限公司。公司代號2114，屬台灣證券交易所上市普通股，公開資料顯示掛牌日期為2010年12月29日；公司官網年報載明為上市公司股票。2026年初公開股市資料顯示實收資本額779,917,070元、已發行普通股77,991,707股。2025年度年報刊印日為2026年3月31日，董事長為張惠寬，總經理為林季佑，發言人為胡美惠，簽證會計師為資誠聯合會計師事務所吳松源、劉美蘭。員工規模方面，2025年底合計116人，2026年3月31日為111人。主要股東依2026年3月24日停止過戶日資料，包括佑臻股份有限公司15,500,000股、持股19.87%；季旺成股份有限公司15,343,420股、持股19.67%；全掌股份有限公司5,035,239股、持股6.46%；林季進受託信託財產專戶2,200,000股、持股2.82%；胡美惠受託信託財產專戶2,200,000股、持股2.82%；其後尚有林芳苓、林佩瑤、林克遜、陳朝國等自然人股東。年報亦揭露法人股東結構：季旺成主要股東為志融股份有限公司，佑臻主要股東為旺璂股份有限公司，而志融與旺璂主要股東均為永蹟股份有限公司。

Business

鑫永銓為專業橡膠輸送帶與其他橡膠製品製造商，以KING王牌橡膠輸送帶、SILIEET矽利特熱壓緩衝墊與NEWSHEET鑫複材熱塑碳纖維複合材料等品牌或事業體對外銷售。主要產品包括重型輸送帶、重型特殊輸送帶、齒型輸送帶、輕型輸送帶、橡膠板、橡皮壩、SW輸送帶、Kevlar輸送帶、鋼索輸送帶、電子級耐熱緩衝墊與熱塑複材產品。公司官網說明KING橡膠輸送帶具有耐熱、阻燃、耐磨、耐寒、抗靜電、耐衝擊、抗撕裂、耐濕氣、耐水、耐油與耐酸鹼等特性，應用於綠能水力、物流、運輸、農用、製造、礦業、發電廠及鋼鐵產業。年報指出輸送帶與橡膠製品主要應用於一般自動化生產線、製造業、礦業、水泥業、鋼鐵業、發電廠；輕型輸送帶亦用於農業、畜牧、建築、空運及航空站。2025年度營業收入淨額1,596,478千元，較2024年度1,466,396千元成長9%；營業利益497,794千元，年增12%；稅後淨利450,996千元，EPS 5.78元。銷售區域以外銷為主，2025年度外銷1,428,878千元，占89.50%；內銷167,600千元，占10.50%。按區域，2025年美洲761,726千元、占48%；歐洲430,669千元、占27%；亞洲375,361千元、占23%；其他地區28,722千元、占2%。年報依經濟部工業產品群資料估算，2025年度鑫永銓橡膠產品營業收入占我國輸送帶業銷售值比重約44%，高於2024年度約41%。StockFeel摘要顯示營收以橡膠製品為主，橡膠製品約97.6%、其他營運事業部約2.4%，但該比例屬第三方整理，需以公司正式財報為準。公司商業模式以客製化接單生產為核心，依客戶設備、應用環境、耐熱/耐油/耐燃/耐磨等物性需求設計膠料、布層、結構與製程，並以自有品牌及國內外經銷商/代理商行銷全球。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025年已實現營收與獲利成長，主要來自歐洲、亞洲及內銷營收增加，毛利與營業利益則受產品組合與費用控管帶動小幅成長。2026年營運計畫重點包括積極開發高分子複合材料產品市場、加速新產品線量產、開發國內與外銷市場、提升品牌知名度、優化產品別組合、強化人力資源與減碳。公司訂定2026年度銷售數量目標為10,000千公斤，依市場需求、客戶營運概況、目前接單情形與產能規模估算。成長動能方面，橡膠本業將持續往特殊型、高附加價值、低碳、綠能、環保、節能輸送帶發展，包括特級耐熱、耐油、耐磨、耐燃輸送帶、橡皮壩、畜牧用橡膠製品與高效環保型管狀輸送帶。複合材料則是中長期新動能，鑫永銓已完成熱塑複材生產基地，將依產品開發與接單進度建置生產線；研發方向包括熱塑碳纖維複合材料第三型金屬內膽儲氫瓶、PA材質內膽第四型氫瓶、無人載具與相關零組件、電子級耐熱緩衝墊，以及可應用於電子、工業、汽車、3C、民生、電動自行車、無人機、氫瓶、燃料電池、電動巴士電池儲能系統與電動車零組件的可回收熱塑板材。產業趨勢上，傳統重型輸送帶屬成熟市場，但橡膠輸送帶仍是工業消耗品，若無新替代品，需求不易大幅萎縮；自動化、物流、航空、農畜牧、綠能水力與高附加價值特殊膠種應用可支撐溫和需求。2027至2028年展望屬推估：若熱塑複材產品量產、客戶驗證與新應用導入順利，營收結構可能逐步分散至複材與高值橡膠製品；若驗證週期拉長，則營運仍以成熟橡膠輸送帶本業穩定貢獻為主。主要風險包括中國、印度、東歐低價競爭壓縮傳統輸送帶毛利；人造膠、天然膠、黑煙、胚布等原料價格受原油與景氣波動影響；產品外銷占比高，美元、歐元、日圓與新台幣匯率變動會影響獲利；橡膠產業面臨VOC、廢棄物、碳排與ESG揭露要求，可能增加製程與環保成本；複材新產品仍需客戶驗證、量產良率與成本競爭力支持。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 鉅崙 年報列示為2024與2025年度進貨總額逾10%的主要供應商，2025年進貨211,164千元、占進貨淨額28%；年報註記該公司董事長係鑫永銓董事長二親等親屬。未查得台股上市櫃代號，應視為未上市或非台股掛牌供應商。
  • E公司 年報匿名列示之2025年度進貨總額逾10%供應商，進貨155,141千元、占21%；公司未揭露實名，無法確認是否掛牌。
  • D公司 年報匿名列示之2025年度進貨總額逾10%供應商，進貨104,759千元、占14%；公司未揭露實名，無法確認是否掛牌。
  • C公司 年報匿名列示之2025年度進貨總額逾10%供應商，進貨86,433千元、占11%；公司未揭露實名，無法確認是否掛牌。
  • 生膠、人造膠、黑煙膠、胚布與織布/打膠供應商 年報揭露主要原料為人造膠、黑煙膠及胚布等；產業上游包括生膠、人造膠、打膠廠、黑煙、聚酯紗與織布廠。多數直接供應商未具名，無法填列台股代號。
Downstream
  • A公司 年報匿名列示之2025年度主要銷貨客戶，銷貨375,492千元、占全年銷貨淨額24%；公司未揭露實名，無法確認是否掛牌。
  • 國內外經銷商與代理商 年報與第三方資料顯示公司以自有品牌KING/HYC行銷全球，並透過國內外經銷商或代理商服務工業用戶；未揭露具名通路企業。
  • 礦業、水泥、砂石、鋼鐵、發電廠與煤業客戶 重型輸送帶與特殊輸送帶下游應用，包含煤礦、鐵礦、水泥、砂石、鋼鐵與火力發電等重工業；年報未揭露個別企業名稱。
  • 物流、航空轉運、農畜牧、建築、製造與一般自動化產線客戶 輕型輸送帶、齒型輸送帶與橡膠板之下游應用，包含物流、航空站、農業、畜牧、建築、電子、紡織、製鞋與自動化產線等；年報未揭露個別企業名稱。
  • 電子、PCB、太陽能與熱壓製程客戶 SILIEET矽利特電子級耐熱緩衝墊可用於PCB、太陽能板與高溫熱壓製程；未揭露具名客戶。
  • 自行車、汽車、無人機、氫能與電動載具零組件客戶 NEWSHEET鑫複材熱塑碳纖維複合材料目標應用包含自行車車架/輪圈、汽車零組件、無人載具、氫瓶、燃料電池、電動巴士電池儲能系統與電動車零組件；多數仍屬開發推廣與客戶驗證階段，未揭露具名客戶。

Competitors

  • 三五橡膠股份有限公司 台灣橡膠輸送帶與動力傳輸帶老牌業者，早期新聞稱鑫永銓與三五在專用與特製輸送帶市場呈雙強格局；未查得台股上市櫃代號。
  • Fenner Dunlop MoneyDJ列為全球主要輸送帶競爭廠商之一，英國/國際輸送帶品牌，非台股掛牌。
  • ContiTech／Conti-Phoenix MoneyDJ列為全球主要輸送帶競爭廠商之一，德國Continental集團相關輸送帶品牌，非台股掛牌。
  • Goodyear MoneyDJ列為全球主要輸送帶競爭廠商之一，美國品牌；非台股掛牌。
  • YOKOHAMA Rubber MoneyDJ列為全球主要輸送帶競爭廠商之一，日本上市公司但非台股掛牌。
  • Bando Chemical MoneyDJ列為全球主要輸送帶競爭廠商之一，日本上市公司但非台股掛牌。
  • Dongil Rubber Belt MoneyDJ列為全球主要輸送帶競爭廠商之一，韓國業者，非台股掛牌。
  • Bridgestone MoneyDJ列為全球主要輸送帶競爭廠商之一，日本上市公司但非台股掛牌。
  • Price Rubber MoneyDJ列為全球主要輸送帶競爭廠商之一，美國業者，非台股掛牌。
Sources（10）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.