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2809

京城銀 Finance & Insurance As of 2026-07-28 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, discounted valuation.

2 active signals
252d high Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 京城銀 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
估值 80品質 77成長 93動能 50籌碼 50

Is 京城銀 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • 獲利能力頂尖。營業利益率贏過全市場約 99% 的個股。最新一季 ROE 約 2.3%。

  • 估值偏便宜。本益比落在全市場第 3 百分位，相對多數個股便宜。以自身歷史看，目前本益比約在第 37 百分位。

  • 營收高成長。最新月營收年增率約 71.3%，超過 20% 的成長門檻。

Historical evidence

目前正在發生的訊號

以下訊號在最近一筆資料中成立，附這檔股票自身歷史上每次出現後的前瞻報酬統計

股價創 252 日新高（突破日）

Active

還原股價首次站上過去 252 個交易日最高；20 日內重複觸發只計一次

40 historical occurrences (since 2009-10-07)
Average forward return after 股價創 252 日新高（突破日）。20-day: Win 56.4%, Sample 39, Median +0.59%, Excess +2.25%, Beat mkt rate 59%；60-day: Win 64.1%, Sample 39, Median +3.04%, Excess +3.45%, Beat mkt rate 56.4%；120-day: Win 76.9%, Sample 39, Median +8.55%, Excess +4.25%, Beat mkt rate 71.8%

120 days after: historical avg +10.76%

20-day +2.31%
60-day +5.79%
120-day +10.76%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
56.4%
64.1%
76.9%
Sample
39
39
39
Median
+0.59%
+3.04%
+8.55%
Excess
+2.25%
+3.45%
+4.25%
Beat mkt rate
59%
56.4%
71.8%

Over 39 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 10.76%, beat the market by 4.25 pts; win rate 76.9%.

月營收年增率 ≥ 20%（公告截止日起算）

Active · now 71.3%

單月營收年增率達 20% 以上；事件日為公告截止日後第一個交易日，避免提前用到未公告資訊

82 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after 月營收年增率 ≥ 20%（公告截止日起算）。20-day: Win 60%, Sample 80, Median +0.74%, Excess +0.82%, Beat mkt rate 50%；60-day: Win 74.7%, Sample 79, Median +5.66%, Excess +3.94%, Beat mkt rate 64.6%；120-day: Win 75.9%, Sample 79, Median +8.99%, Excess +5.26%, Beat mkt rate 63.3%

120 days after: historical avg +12.49%

20-day +1.82%
60-day +7.87%
120-day +12.49%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
60%
74.7%
75.9%
Sample
80
79
79
Median
+0.74%
+5.66%
+8.99%
Excess
+0.82%
+3.94%
+5.26%
Beat mkt rate
50%
64.6%
63.3%

Over 79 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 12.49%, beat the market by 5.26 pts; win rate 75.9%.

估值位階與後續報酬

把這檔股票每天的本益比，換算成「截至當天為止的自身歷史百分位」，再看不同估值位階之後 240 個交易日的還原股價報酬。

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 806+4.5% +0.6% 51% +0.2%
20-40 You are here618+13.9% +14.9% 77.7% +2.8%
40-60 378+9.8% +8.9% 71.4% -1.3%
60-80 426+15.5% +12.8% 73.2% -8.2%
80-100 628+22.8% +19.4% 90% -2.4%

百分位以當天為止的自身歷史滾動計算（expanding），不含未來資訊；前瞻報酬為還原股價 240 交易日。樣本日重疊，僅供分布參考。

目前本益比約 7.8，落在自身歷史第 37.1 百分位，屬於 20-40 區間。

估值 × 動能的歷史對照

把自身歷史的每一天，依估值位階（本益比自身歷史三分位）與 60 日動能方向分成六格，看各情境之後 120 個交易日的還原股價報酬。

Valuation
Momentum
便宜
中等
昂貴
向上
+7%
Win rate 70.2% Excess +1.6%
631d
+12.7%
Win rate 78.7% Excess +1.7%
522d
+6.2%
Win rate 79.6% Excess -5.1%
667d
向下
+1.1%
Win rate 41.4% Excess +0.4%
618d
Now
-0.7%
Win rate 40.5% Excess +0.5%
168d
+7.5%
Win rate 73% Excess -0.4%
370d

Currently in “中等 × 60 日動能向下”: across 168 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 0.7%, win rate 40.5%, beat the market by 0.5%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

這個訊號在全市場是否站得住腳

「月營收年增率 ≥ 20%」過去 243 個月，每月平均約 404 檔個股符合條件；這些個股之後 60 個交易日的還原股價報酬，等權平均為 6.99%，平均贏過大盤 2.32 個百分點，在 64.2% 的月份中跑贏發行量加權股價報酬指數。

每月對全市場符合訊號的股票取等權平均前瞻 60 日還原報酬，再對月份平均；超額相對發行量加權股價報酬指數

目前未成立的訊號（歷史統計供參）

這些訊號現在沒有發生，列出歷史樣本以供對照

外資連續買超滿 5 個交易日

Pending

外資（不含自營商）買賣超連續 5 日為正，事件日為第 5 日；20 日內重複觸發只計一次

71 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.87%, win rate 63.8%, beating the market by -0.42 pts on average.

方法與限制

  • 所有報酬以還原股價（etl:adj_close）計算，已還原除權息與股票分割。
  • 超額報酬以發行量加權股價報酬指數（含息）為基準。
  • 估值位階與分位統計以「截至當天為止的自身歷史」滾動計算，不使用未來資訊。
  • 營收訊號的事件日對齊到公告截止日後第一個交易日，避免提前用到尚未公開的資訊。
  • 事件樣本之間日期可能重疊，統計僅描述歷史分布，樣本數較少時參考價值有限。

本頁內容為歷史資料統計與教育用途，不構成投資建議。投資一定有風險，過去績效不代表未來表現，交易前請自行評估並承擔風險。