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4987

科誠 Other As of 2026-07-28 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, discounted valuation, no active signal today.

This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 科誠 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
估值 69品質 77成長 69動能 50籌碼 50

Is 科誠 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • 獲利能力中上。營業利益率位居全市場第 77 百分位。最新一季 ROE 約 3.9%。

  • 估值偏便宜。本益比落在全市場第 21 百分位，相對多數個股便宜。以自身歷史看，目前本益比約在第 81 百分位。

Chip flow

Bullish +0.93
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 永豐金證券 holds 646 lots
  • sellers have 27 lots left, ~12 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +0% · branches to 2026-05-20· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 永豐金證券 has accumulated 646 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 群益金鼎-台中 peaked at 175 lots, has sold 27%, 128 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +18.03pp, mid holders -5, retail -14.56pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -37 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
永豐金證券玉山-台南元富-台南群益金鼎-大甲元富-敦南新光
Distributing
群益金鼎-台中中國信託-忠孝新光-台南凱基-台南元大-台中中港富邦-花蓮
Desks
own scale
富邦-八德元富-嘉義元大-竹北華南永昌-忠孝
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 永豐金證券 +646
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 玉山-台南 +507
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元富-台南 +445
    sold 16%
  • 群益金鼎-大甲 +406
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元富-敦南 +268
    sold 0%
  • 新光 +183
    sold 5%

Distributing

  • 群益金鼎-台中 128 left
    sold 27%· paused recently
  • 中國信託-忠孝 27 left
    sold 52%· ~12 sessions to clear
  • 新光-台南 26 left
    sold 43%· paused recently
  • 凱基-台南 23 left
    sold 45%· paused recently
  • 元大-台中中港 2 left
    sold 83%· paused recently
  • 富邦-花蓮 6 left
    sold 45%· paused recently

Desks

  • 富邦-八德 -1,559
    unclassified
  • 元富-嘉義 -107
    unclassified
  • 元大-竹北 -92
    unclassified
  • 華南永昌-忠孝 -75
    unclassified
Still selling 27 lots ~12 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +254 absorbed / -23 sold buyers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

估值位階與後續報酬

把這檔股票每天的本益比，換算成「截至當天為止的自身歷史百分位」，再看不同估值位階之後 240 個交易日的還原股價報酬。

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 335+6% -0.2% 49.6% -14.1%
20-40 484+11.6% +14.5% 87.4% -15.4%
40-60 628+4.3% +5.5% 59.2% -8.9%
60-80 546+18% +24.2% 73.6% +2.9%
80-100 You are here474+16.1% +20.9% 76.8% 0%

百分位以當天為止的自身歷史滾動計算（expanding），不含未來資訊；前瞻報酬為還原股價 240 交易日。樣本日重疊，僅供分布參考。

目前本益比約 13.23，落在自身歷史第 81.2 百分位，屬於 80-100 區間。

估值 × 動能的歷史對照

把自身歷史的每一天，依估值位階（本益比自身歷史三分位）與 60 日動能方向分成六格，看各情境之後 120 個交易日的還原股價報酬。

Valuation
Momentum
便宜
中等
昂貴
向上
+5.8%
Win rate 85.6% Excess -2.7%
298d
+3.8%
Win rate 72.3% Excess -3.6%
582d
Now
+10.2%
Win rate 73% Excess +3.6%
730d
向下
-1%
Win rate 48% Excess -15.1%
396d
+1.7%
Win rate 61.8% Excess -6.4%
429d
+13.3%
Win rate 75.4% Excess -0.4%
122d

Currently in “昂貴（自身歷史後 1/3） × 60 日動能向上”: across 730 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 10.2%, win rate 73%, beat the market by 3.6%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

這個訊號在全市場是否站得住腳

「月營收年增率 ≥ 20%」過去 243 個月，每月平均約 404 檔個股符合條件；這些個股之後 60 個交易日的還原股價報酬，等權平均為 6.99%，平均贏過大盤 2.32 個百分點，在 64.2% 的月份中跑贏發行量加權股價報酬指數。

每月對全市場符合訊號的股票取等權平均前瞻 60 日還原報酬，再對月份平均；超額相對發行量加權股價報酬指數

目前未成立的訊號（歷史統計供參）

這些訊號現在沒有發生，列出歷史樣本以供對照

股價創 252 日新高（突破日）

Pending

還原股價首次站上過去 252 個交易日最高；20 日內重複觸發只計一次

27 times historically; 60-day forward avg +9.85%, win rate 70.4%, beating the market by +8.65 pts on average.

月營收年增率 ≥ 20%（公告截止日起算）

Pending

單月營收年增率達 20% 以上；事件日為公告截止日後第一個交易日，避免提前用到未公告資訊

48 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7.21%, win rate 70%, beating the market by +5 pts on average.

外資連續買超滿 5 個交易日

Pending

外資（不含自營商）買賣超連續 5 日為正，事件日為第 5 日；20 日內重複觸發只計一次

17 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.65%, win rate 56.2%, beating the market by +3.73 pts on average.

方法與限制

  • 所有報酬以還原股價（etl:adj_close）計算，已還原除權息與股票分割。
  • 超額報酬以發行量加權股價報酬指數（含息）為基準。
  • 估值位階與分位統計以「截至當天為止的自身歷史」滾動計算，不使用未來資訊。
  • 營收訊號的事件日對齊到公告截止日後第一個交易日，避免提前用到尚未公開的資訊。
  • 事件樣本之間日期可能重疊，統計僅描述歷史分布，樣本數較少時參考價值有限。

本頁內容為歷史資料統計與教育用途，不構成投資建議。投資一定有風險，過去績效不代表未來表現，交易前請自行評估並承擔風險。