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6590

普鴻 Information Services As of 2026-07-28 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, discounted valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 普鴻 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
估值 67品質 72成長 68動能 37籌碼 36

Is 普鴻 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • 獲利能力中上。營業利益率位居全市場第 79 百分位。最新一季 ROE 約 2.8%。

  • 估值偏便宜。本益比落在全市場第 20 百分位，相對多數個股便宜。以自身歷史看，目前本益比約在第 30 百分位。

  • 外資近期偏賣。外資近 20 日買賣超約佔成交量 -1.4%（賣超）。

  • 營收高成長。最新月營收年增率約 29.6%，超過 20% 的成長門檻。

Chip flow

Bullish +0.34
BearishNeutralBullish

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish

  • Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish
  • 臺銀 holds 248 lots
  • sellers have 14 lots left, ~20 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -9% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 臺銀 has accumulated 248 lots since the start (sold 0%), now trimming.
  • Main distributor 永豐金-中正 peaked at 26 lots, has sold 77%, 6 left, ~10 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -0.98pp, mid holders +1, retail -2.75pp — little change.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -35 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
臺銀兆豐-台中港第一金-安和新光永豐金-新莊元大-桃園
Distributing
永豐金-中正台新證券富邦-台北元大-歸仁合庫證券凱基-斗六
Desks
own scale
永豐金-永康富邦-敦南中國信託-嘉義永豐金-古亭
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 臺銀 +248
    sold 0%
  • 兆豐-台中港 +50
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 第一金-安和 +38
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 新光 +34
    sold 0%
  • 永豐金-新莊 +30
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大-桃園 +26
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 永豐金-中正 6 left
    sold 77%· ~10 sessions to clear
  • 台新證券 5 left
    sold 64%· paused recently
  • 富邦-台北 6 left
    sold 45%· ~20 sessions to clear
  • 元大-歸仁 1 left
    sold 90%· paused recently
  • 合庫證券 1 left
    sold 86%· ~2 sessions to clear
  • 凱基-斗六 3 left
    sold 25%· paused recently

Desks

  • 永豐金-永康 -207
    unclassified
  • 富邦-敦南 -165
    unclassified
  • 中國信託-嘉義 -50
    unclassified
  • 永豐金-古亭 -37
    unclassified
Still selling 14 lots ~20 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +61 absorbed / -16 sold buyers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

目前正在發生的訊號

以下訊號在最近一筆資料中成立，附這檔股票自身歷史上每次出現後的前瞻報酬統計

月營收年增率 ≥ 20%（公告截止日起算）

Active · now 29.55%

單月營收年增率達 20% 以上；事件日為公告截止日後第一個交易日，避免提前用到未公告資訊

45 historical occurrences (since 2018-12-24)
Average forward return after 月營收年增率 ≥ 20%（公告截止日起算）。20-day: Win 56.7%, Sample 30, Median +1.28%, Excess +2.47%, Beat mkt rate 50%；60-day: Win 60%, Sample 30, Median +2.84%, Excess +5.51%, Beat mkt rate 50%；120-day: Win 56.7%, Sample 30, Median +5.5%, Excess +3.35%, Beat mkt rate 40%

120 days after: historical avg +16.96%

20-day +2.21%
60-day +10.57%
120-day +16.96%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
56.7%
60%
56.7%
Sample
30
30
30
Median
+1.28%
+2.84%
+5.5%
Excess
+2.47%
+5.51%
+3.35%
Beat mkt rate
50%
50%
40%

Over 30 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 16.96%, beat the market by 3.35 pts; win rate 56.7%.

估值位階與後續報酬

把這檔股票每天的本益比，換算成「截至當天為止的自身歷史百分位」，再看不同估值位階之後 240 個交易日的還原股價報酬。

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 141+59.7% +71.2% 100% +40.4%
20-40 You are here137+37.1% +23.8% 81.8% +24.9%
40-60 275+12.9% +7.9% 51.6% -9.9%
60-80 160+2.2% +3% 51.2% -47.8%
80-100 1390% -1.1% 48.2% -48.8%

百分位以當天為止的自身歷史滾動計算（expanding），不含未來資訊；前瞻報酬為還原股價 240 交易日。樣本日重疊，僅供分布參考。

目前本益比約 13.02，落在自身歷史第 30.0 百分位，屬於 20-40 區間。

估值 × 動能的歷史對照

把自身歷史的每一天，依估值位階（本益比自身歷史三分位）與 60 日動能方向分成六格，看各情境之後 120 個交易日的還原股價報酬。

Valuation
Momentum
便宜
中等
昂貴
向上
-3.5%
Win rate 5.1% Excess -60.9%
39d
+8.8%
Win rate 54% Excess -1.4%
235d
-2.9%
Win rate 40% Excess -22.4%
230d
向下
Now
+21.4%
Win rate 63.8% Excess +15.9%
232d
+4.2%
Win rate 59.6% Excess -8.2%
156d
+13.7%
Win rate 100% Excess -7.7%
61d

Currently in “便宜（自身歷史前 1/3） × 60 日動能向下”: across 232 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 21.4%, win rate 63.8%, beat the market by 15.9%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

這個訊號在全市場是否站得住腳

「月營收年增率 ≥ 20%」過去 243 個月，每月平均約 404 檔個股符合條件；這些個股之後 60 個交易日的還原股價報酬，等權平均為 6.99%，平均贏過大盤 2.32 個百分點，在 64.2% 的月份中跑贏發行量加權股價報酬指數。

每月對全市場符合訊號的股票取等權平均前瞻 60 日還原報酬，再對月份平均；超額相對發行量加權股價報酬指數

目前未成立的訊號（歷史統計供參）

這些訊號現在沒有發生，列出歷史樣本以供對照

股價創 252 日新高（突破日）

Pending

還原股價首次站上過去 252 個交易日最高；20 日內重複觸發只計一次

7 times historically; 60-day forward avg +11.7%, win rate 71.4%, beating the market by +0.71 pts on average.

外資連續買超滿 5 個交易日

Pending

外資（不含自營商）買賣超連續 5 日為正，事件日為第 5 日；20 日內重複觸發只計一次

方法與限制

  • 所有報酬以還原股價（etl:adj_close）計算，已還原除權息與股票分割。
  • 超額報酬以發行量加權股價報酬指數（含息）為基準。
  • 估值位階與分位統計以「截至當天為止的自身歷史」滾動計算，不使用未來資訊。
  • 營收訊號的事件日對齊到公告截止日後第一個交易日，避免提前用到尚未公開的資訊。
  • 事件樣本之間日期可能重疊，統計僅描述歷史分布，樣本數較少時參考價值有限。

本頁內容為歷史資料統計與教育用途，不構成投資建議。投資一定有風險，過去績效不代表未來表現，交易前請自行評估並承擔風險。