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8923

時報 Cultural & Creative As of 2026-07-28 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 時報 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
估值 61品質 33成長 59動能 43籌碼 50

Is 時報 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • 獲利能力偏弱。營業利益率僅勝過全市場約 26% 的個股。最新一季 ROE 約 1.2%。

  • 估值中性。本益比位居全市場第 65 百分位。以自身歷史看，目前本益比約在第 93 百分位。

  • 外資近期中性。外資近 20 日買賣超大致持平。

  • 營收高成長。最新月營收年增率約 20.2%，超過 20% 的成長門檻。

Chip flow

Bullish +0.40
BearishNeutralBullish

Mixed flow — bullish

  • Mixed flow — bullish
  • 台新-嘉義 holds 51 lots
  • sellers have 0 lots left

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -1% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 台新-嘉義 has accumulated 51 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 永豐金證券 peaked at 4 lots, has sold 25%, 3 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.00pp, mid holders +0, retail -0.01pp — little change.
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
台新-嘉義元富-嘉義群益金鼎-嘉義新百王康和-台中臺銀
Distributing
永豐金證券台灣企銀-台南
Desks
own scale
玉山-嘉義凱基-中港國票-和平玉山證券
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 台新-嘉義 +51
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元富-嘉義 +20
    sold 0%
  • 群益金鼎-嘉義 +18
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 新百王 +12
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 康和-台中 +10
    sold 0%
  • 臺銀 +7
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 永豐金證券 3 left
    sold 25%· paused recently
  • 台灣企銀-台南 1 left
    sold 50%· paused recently

Desks

  • 玉山-嘉義 -42
    unclassified
  • 凱基-中港 -34
    unclassified
  • 國票-和平 -25
    unclassified
  • 玉山證券 -10
    unclassified
Still selling 0 lots
Recent buy/sell force +50 absorbed / 0 sold buyers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

目前正在發生的訊號

以下訊號在最近一筆資料中成立，附這檔股票自身歷史上每次出現後的前瞻報酬統計

月營收年增率 ≥ 20%（公告截止日起算）

Active · now 20.17%

單月營收年增率達 20% 以上；事件日為公告截止日後第一個交易日，避免提前用到未公告資訊

64 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after 月營收年增率 ≥ 20%（公告截止日起算）。20-day: Win 61.8%, Sample 55, Median +1.21%, Excess +0.31%, Beat mkt rate 54.5%；60-day: Win 68.5%, Sample 54, Median +3.89%, Excess +2.02%, Beat mkt rate 53.7%；120-day: Win 79.2%, Sample 53, Median +7.22%, Excess +3.33%, Beat mkt rate 50.9%

120 days after: historical avg +10.43%

20-day +1.49%
60-day +5.35%
120-day +10.43%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
61.8%
68.5%
79.2%
Sample
55
54
53
Median
+1.21%
+3.89%
+7.22%
Excess
+0.31%
+2.02%
+3.33%
Beat mkt rate
54.5%
53.7%
50.9%

Over 53 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 10.43%, beat the market by 3.33 pts; win rate 79.2%.

估值位階與後續報酬

把這檔股票每天的本益比，換算成「截至當天為止的自身歷史百分位」，再看不同估值位階之後 240 個交易日的還原股價報酬。

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 365+6.1% +5.8% 89.9% -13.1%
20-40 460+10.2% +5.6% 82% -2.6%
40-60 538+2.2% +2.2% 61.7% -16%
60-80 895+7.9% +4.7% 88.7% -2.8%
80-100 You are here799+6.1% +4.3% 80.7% -19.5%

百分位以當天為止的自身歷史滾動計算（expanding），不含未來資訊；前瞻報酬為還原股價 240 交易日。樣本日重疊，僅供分布參考。

目前本益比約 28.77，落在自身歷史第 93.1 百分位，屬於 80-100 區間。

估值 × 動能的歷史對照

把自身歷史的每一天，依估值位階（本益比自身歷史三分位）與 60 日動能方向分成六格，看各情境之後 120 個交易日的還原股價報酬。

Valuation
Momentum
便宜
中等
昂貴
向上
+1%
Win rate 56.9% Excess +1.2%
197d
+1.8%
Win rate 62.2% Excess -3.4%
465d
+2.7%
Win rate 68.2% Excess -11.1%
743d
向下
+6.8%
Win rate 88.1% Excess -3.9%
193d
+0.5%
Win rate 55.2% Excess -4.2%
248d
Now
+6.1%
Win rate 79.4% Excess -5.2%
345d

Currently in “昂貴（自身歷史後 1/3） × 60 日動能向下”: across 345 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 6.1%, win rate 79.4%, lagged the market by 5.2%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

這個訊號在全市場是否站得住腳

「月營收年增率 ≥ 20%」過去 243 個月，每月平均約 404 檔個股符合條件；這些個股之後 60 個交易日的還原股價報酬，等權平均為 6.99%，平均贏過大盤 2.32 個百分點，在 64.2% 的月份中跑贏發行量加權股價報酬指數。

每月對全市場符合訊號的股票取等權平均前瞻 60 日還原報酬，再對月份平均；超額相對發行量加權股價報酬指數

目前未成立的訊號（歷史統計供參）

這些訊號現在沒有發生，列出歷史樣本以供對照

股價創 252 日新高（突破日）

Pending

還原股價首次站上過去 252 個交易日最高；20 日內重複觸發只計一次

36 times historically; 60-day forward avg -1.05%, win rate 30.6%, beating the market by -5.24 pts on average.

外資連續買超滿 5 個交易日

Pending

外資（不含自營商）買賣超連續 5 日為正，事件日為第 5 日；20 日內重複觸發只計一次

方法與限制

  • 所有報酬以還原股價（etl:adj_close）計算，已還原除權息與股票分割。
  • 超額報酬以發行量加權股價報酬指數（含息）為基準。
  • 估值位階與分位統計以「截至當天為止的自身歷史」滾動計算，不使用未來資訊。
  • 營收訊號的事件日對齊到公告截止日後第一個交易日，避免提前用到尚未公開的資訊。
  • 事件樣本之間日期可能重疊，統計僅描述歷史分布，樣本數較少時參考價值有限。

本頁內容為歷史資料統計與教育用途，不構成投資建議。投資一定有風險，過去績效不代表未來表現，交易前請自行評估並承擔風險。