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NVS

Novartis AG Healthcare As of 2026-08-03 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, premium valuation.

1 active signal
EPS surprise beat
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add Novartis AG to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 35Quality 86Growth 47Momentum 61Risk / liquidity 86

Is Novartis AG a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Quality is top-tier. Operating margin ranks above roughly 84% of the liquid US common-stock universe. TTM ROE is about 30.7%.

  • Valuation is expensive. TTM P/E is in the 76th percentile, above most peers.

  • Recent volatility is comparatively low. 60-day annualized volatility is in the 23th percentile. Average 20-day dollar volume is about $273.4M.

  • Signals are active now. EPS surprise beat currently holds; the tables below show what followed in this stock’s own history.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

EPS surprise beat

Active · now 9.545454545454543%

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

16 historical occurrences (since 2015-01-27)
Average forward return after EPS surprise beat。20-day: Win 41.7%, Sample 12, Median -1.12%, Excess -0.73%, Beat mkt rate 41.7%；60-day: Win 66.7%, Sample 12, Median +2.64%, Excess -0.46%, Beat mkt rate 41.7%；120-day: Win 66.7%, Sample 12, Median +4.98%, Excess -2.32%, Beat mkt rate 50%

120 days after: historical avg +5.89%

20-day +0.35%
60-day +4.56%
120-day +5.89%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
41.7%
66.7%
66.7%
Sample
12
12
12
Median
-1.12%
+2.64%
+4.98%
Excess
-0.73%
-0.46%
-2.32%
Beat mkt rate
41.7%
41.7%
50%

Over 12 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 5.89%, lagged the market by 2.32 pts; win rate 66.7%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 464+14.9% +14.3% 91.4% +0.6%
20-40 289+7.7% +4.5% 68.5% +0.9%
40-60 145+19.2% +26.9% 66.9% +9.3%
60-80 You are here134+4.1% -0.1% 48.5% -8.3%
80-100 362+6.8% +6.7% 69.1% -20.1%

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 23.18, placing it in the 70.2 own-history percentile, inside the 60-80 bucket.

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
0%
Win rate 45.5% Excess -3.7%
286d
+8.9%
Win rate 69.4% Excess +2.4%
356d
Now
+1.7%
Win rate 63.1% Excess -10.4%
314d
60-day momentum down
+9.9%
Win rate 86.7% Excess +4.6%
346d
+2.4%
Win rate 48.7% Excess -5.1%
78d
+7.7%
Win rate 76.1% Excess -7.3%
134d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top third) × 60-day momentum up”: across 314 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 1.7%, win rate 63.1%, lagged the market by 10.4%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 98,045 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.24%, a 58.1% positive-return rate, and +2.88 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

15 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.61%, win rate 60%, beating the market by -0.28 pts on average.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Pending

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

11 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.86%, win rate 81.8%, beating the market by -2.01 pts on average.

Filed revenue acceleration

Pending

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.