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UGP Ultrapar Participações S.A.

Energy

7.90

Close 10/9

Open
7.84
High
8.09
Low
7.84
Prev close
7.79
Volume
7.4M
52W 3.60 8.28
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Is Ultrapar Participações S.A. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

As of 2026-10-09

Growth: Good, Momentum: Strong, Risk / liquidity: Good.

Quality Neutral ROE, TTM is Top, but FCF margin, TTM is Average.
ROE, TTM (%) 74.23 94th percentile Top
Operating margin, TTM (%) 3.48 42th percentile Average
FCF margin, TTM (%) 0.96 41th percentile Average
Growth Good Revenue growth, TTM YoY is Good.
Revenue growth, TTM YoY (%) 6.64 52th percentile Good
Momentum Strong All 2 indicators are Top.
60-day return (%) 30.4 93th percentile Top
240-day return (%) 110.25 96th percentile Top
Risk / liquidity Good All 2 indicators are Good.
20-day dollar volume 33,786,701 77th percentile Good
60-day annualized volatility (%) 33.27 37th percentile Good

Ultrapar Participações S.A. (UGP) today

2 quant signals active · As of 2026-10-09

Win rate and excess are historical post-trigger stats vs the market. Click a signal for its full definition and samples; history does not predict future results.

Ultrapar Participações S.A. (UGP) peers and tracking

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Ultrapar Participações S.A. (UGP) quant signal backtests

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

52-week adjusted-price high

Active

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

13 historical occurrences (since 2017-05-16)
Average forward return after 52-week adjusted-price high。20-day: Win 38.5%, Sample 13, Median -1.53%, Excess -1.22%, Beat mkt rate 30.8%；60-day: Win 58.3%, Sample 12, Median +7.76%, Excess +2.14%, Beat mkt rate 50%；120-day: Win 70%, Sample 10, Median +23.79%, Excess +6.25%, Beat mkt rate 70%

120 days after: historical avg +14.6%

20-day +1.18%
60-day +7.16%
120-day +14.6%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
38.5%
58.3%
70%
Sample
13
12
10
Median
-1.53%
+7.76%
+23.79%
Excess
-1.22%
+2.14%
+6.25%
Beat mkt rate
30.8%
50%
70%

Over 10 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 14.6%, beat the market by 6.25 pts; win rate 70%.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 83.18%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

20 historical occurrences (since 2016-07-05)
Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum。20-day: Win 50%, Sample 20, Median -0.65%, Excess -1.51%, Beat mkt rate 45%；60-day: Win 68.4%, Sample 19, Median +5.66%, Excess -1.19%, Beat mkt rate 52.6%；120-day: Win 47.1%, Sample 17, Median -3.11%, Excess -4.99%, Beat mkt rate 35.3%

120 days after: historical avg +1.67%

20-day -0.87%
60-day +0.79%
120-day +1.67%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
50%
68.4%
47.1%
Sample
20
19
17
Median
-0.65%
+5.66%
-3.11%
Excess
-1.51%
-1.19%
-4.99%
Beat mkt rate
45%
52.6%
35.3%

Over 17 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 1.67%, lagged the market by 4.99 pts; win rate 47.1%.

More history: Market-wide momentum baseline, Signals not active now

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 98,394 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.23%, a 57.8% positive-return rate, and +2.88 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

Filed revenue acceleration

Pending

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

6 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.21%, win rate 50%, beating the market by +5.22 pts on average.

Continue researching Ultrapar Participações S.A. with the evidence above.

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Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.
  • This is an American depositary receipt (ADR). The data does not say how many ordinary shares each ADR represents, so per-share and market-value metrics (P/E, price/book, free-cash-flow yield, EPS growth and earnings surprises) are not computed.
  • ADRs listed on NYSE or NASDAQ are covered as a separate group selected by dollar volume, in addition to the common-stock universe; the 6-month momentum signal ranks each ADR against the liquid US common stocks.
  • Financial statements are reported in BRL. Operating margin, ROE and revenue growth are computed within BRL; no figure divides the USD share price by BRL amounts.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.