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Help me set up FinLab and analyze 00694B 富邦美債1-3. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=00694B

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00694B

富邦美債1-3 Other Securities As of 2026-07-28 Updated daily after market close

1 signal active.

1 active signal
252d high
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 富邦美債1-3 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
估值 50品質 50成長 50動能 61籌碼 97

Is 富邦美債1-3 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • 外資近期偏買。外資近 20 日買賣超約佔成交量 21.2%（買超）。

Chip flow

Bearish -0.24
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

  • Distribution to retail — bearish
  • 凱基-台北 holds 10,275 lots
  • sellers have 70 lots left, ~115 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price 0% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 凱基-台北 has accumulated 10,275 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 元大證券 peaked at 312 lots, has sold 44%, 174 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -23.65pp, mid holders -3, retail +20.66pp — drifting down to retail.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -3 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
凱基-台北富邦證券台新國泰-敦南元大-大安合庫證券
Distributing
元大證券玉山-板橋富邦-台北新百王國泰-板橋群益金鼎-北高雄
Desks
own scale
凱基群益金鼎玉山證券大昌-新店
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 凱基-台北 +10,275
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 富邦證券 +1,288
    sold 7%· still adding
  • 台新 +82
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 國泰-敦南 +79
    sold 5%· still adding
  • 元大-大安 +71
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 合庫證券 +51
    sold 2%

Distributing

  • 元大證券 174 left
    sold 44%· paused recently
  • 玉山-板橋 24 left
    sold 81%· paused recently
  • 富邦-台北 23 left
    sold 47%· ~115 sessions to clear
  • 新百王 14 left
    sold 59%· paused recently
  • 國泰-板橋 18 left
    sold 40%· ~16 sessions to clear
  • 群益金鼎-北高雄 11 left
    sold 52%· ~9 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 凱基 -8,841
    unclassified
  • 群益金鼎 -1,439
    unclassified
  • 玉山證券 -596
    unclassified
  • 大昌-新店 -487
    unclassified
Still selling 70 lots ~115 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +1,191 absorbed / -71 sold buyers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

目前正在發生的訊號

以下訊號在最近一筆資料中成立，附這檔股票自身歷史上每次出現後的前瞻報酬統計

股價創 252 日新高（突破日）

Active

還原股價首次站上過去 252 個交易日最高；20 日內重複觸發只計一次

18 historical occurrences (since 2018-07-03)
Average forward return after 股價創 252 日新高（突破日）。20-day: Win 70.6%, Sample 17, Median +0.45%, Excess -1.66%, Beat mkt rate 41.2%；60-day: Win 70.6%, Sample 17, Median +1.18%, Excess -3.4%, Beat mkt rate 41.2%；120-day: Win 68.8%, Sample 16, Median +1.33%, Excess -5.47%, Beat mkt rate 12.5%

120 days after: historical avg +0.29%

20-day +0.48%
60-day +0.43%
120-day +0.29%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
70.6%
70.6%
68.8%
Sample
17
17
16
Median
+0.45%
+1.18%
+1.33%
Excess
-1.66%
-3.4%
-5.47%
Beat mkt rate
41.2%
41.2%
12.5%

Over 16 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 0.29%, lagged the market by 5.47 pts; win rate 68.8%.

這個訊號在全市場是否站得住腳

「月營收年增率 ≥ 20%」過去 243 個月，每月平均約 404 檔個股符合條件；這些個股之後 60 個交易日的還原股價報酬，等權平均為 6.99%，平均贏過大盤 2.32 個百分點，在 64.2% 的月份中跑贏發行量加權股價報酬指數。

每月對全市場符合訊號的股票取等權平均前瞻 60 日還原報酬，再對月份平均；超額相對發行量加權股價報酬指數

目前未成立的訊號（歷史統計供參）

這些訊號現在沒有發生，列出歷史樣本以供對照

外資連續買超滿 5 個交易日

Pending

外資（不含自營商）買賣超連續 5 日為正，事件日為第 5 日；20 日內重複觸發只計一次

19 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.58%, win rate 84.2%, beating the market by -11.27 pts on average.

What does 富邦美債1-3 do? Company profile

債券型ETF(固定收益/美國政府公債) 台灣證券交易所(上市)

Overview

本檔為富邦投信(富邦證券投資信託股份有限公司)發行之債券型指數股票型基金,屬「富邦美國政府債券ETF傘型證券投資信託基金」項下之「富邦美國政府債券1-3年期證券投資信託基金」。成立日為2017年5月31日,2017年6月8日於台灣證券交易所掛牌上市。計價幣別為新台幣;保管銀行為永豐商業銀行。費用採級距式:經理費(年)約0.07%~0.12%、保管費(年)約0.06%~0.10%,合計總費用率約0.17%(含非管理費用)。基金規模約新台幣15.86億元(2026/6/16)。風險報酬等級為RR2(屬較低風險)。本基金為被動式追蹤指數產品,非營運實體公司,並無一般公司之董事長、總經理、員工人數或營收等概念,管理機構為富邦投信。

Business

本ETF以追蹤「富時美國政府債券1-3年期指數(FTSE US Treasury 1-3 Year Index)」之績效表現為目標,主要投資於到期年限1至3年的美國政府公債(美國國庫券/短天期美國公債),屬於短存續期間之利率型固定收益商品,信用風險極低(由美國政府主權信用支持),價格對利率變動敏感度相對長天期債券低、波動度小。產品定位為現金管理、資金停泊與防禦性資產配置工具。配息政策為季配息(每年4次),近年單次配息約0.25~0.30元新台幣,年化配息率約2.4%~2.9%區間(隨美國短率與淨值變動)。主要報酬來源為債券票息收益,並受新台幣兌美元匯率影響(無匯率避險或部分避險將使台幣計價淨值受匯率波動干擾)。

Outlook 2025–2028

(以下屬產業環境分析與推估,非確定預測)2025~2028年表現主要取決於美國聯準會(Fed)利率政策路徑與美元/新台幣匯率走勢。1-3年期短債對殖利率曲線前端最敏感:若Fed進入降息循環,短率下行將使新發債票息收益逐步下降,但既有持債價格獲得支撐,且短存續期間使資本利損有限,整體屬低波動防禦配置。相對風險與挑戰包括:(1)若通膨僵固導致Fed維持高利率較久,再投資收益維持但價格上行空間受限;(2)台幣計價產品的匯率風險,台幣升值將侵蝕台幣計價報酬;(3)規模偏小(約15.8億元),流動性與折溢價需留意;(4)與其他短債ETF、貨幣市場型工具及定存的競爭。整體而言,此類產品定位為穩健的現金替代與資產配置壓艙石,而非追求高成長標的。

Sources（7）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

方法與限制

  • 所有報酬以還原股價（etl:adj_close）計算，已還原除權息與股票分割。
  • 超額報酬以發行量加權股價報酬指數（含息）為基準。
  • 估值位階與分位統計以「截至當天為止的自身歷史」滾動計算，不使用未來資訊。
  • 營收訊號的事件日對齊到公告截止日後第一個交易日，避免提前用到尚未公開的資訊。
  • 事件樣本之間日期可能重疊，統計僅描述歷史分布，樣本數較少時參考價值有限。

本頁內容為歷史資料統計與教育用途，不構成投資建議。投資一定有風險，過去績效不代表未來表現，交易前請自行評估並承擔風險。