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Help me set up FinLab and analyze 1338 廣華-KY. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=1338
1338
quality needs a look, fair valuation, no active signal today.
Is 廣華-KY a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 20th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ -1.4%.
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Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 73th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 96th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 14.1% of volume (net buy).
Chip flow
Distribution to retail — bearish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -19% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 國票-九鼎 has accumulated 784 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
- Main distributor 統一-新竹 peaked at 86 lots, has sold 44%, 48 left, ~48 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -2.28pp, mid holders -1, retail +1.67pp — drifting down to retail.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -64 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 國票-九鼎 +784
- 國泰證券 +450
- 華南永昌-台南 +437
- 凱基 +347
- 台新-中原 +346
- 台灣摩根士丹利 +275
Distributing
- 統一-新竹 48 left
- 港商野村 14 left
- 元大-板橋 39 left
- 台新-中壢 24 left
- 元富-宜蘭 36 left
- 國泰-敦南 36 left
Desks
- 兆豐-南京 -1,650
- 中國信託 -535
- 華南永昌 -392
- 富邦-新店 -365
Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 526 | -1.4% | -7.3% | 37.5% | -12.8% |
| 20-40 | 414 | -12.5% | -12% | 18.1% | -20% |
| 40-60 | 254 | -11.5% | -11.4% | 10.6% | -22.8% |
| 60-80 | 120 | -1.7% | -6.6% | 20.8% | -27.8% |
| 80-100 You are here | 230 | -1.7% | -5.6% | 29.1% | -31.5% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 26.6, at the 96.1th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 107 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 2.5%, win rate 56.1%, lagged the market by 13.3%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
9 times historically; 60-day forward avg -0.68%, win rate 44.4%, beating the market by -2.99 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
34 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.32%, win rate 46.2%, beating the market by -0.81 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
52 times historically; 60-day forward avg -0.67%, win rate 47.1%, beating the market by -3.47 pts on average.
What does 廣華-KY do? Company profile
Overview
廣華-KY（股票代號1338，英文名Hiroca Holdings Ltd.）為註冊於開曼群島的KY（境外）控股公司，2009年12月8日為辦理股票公開發行重組而設立控股架構，旗下核心營運主體（傲成集團／廣澤系，東莞汽車內飾件廠）經營已逾25年（約1999年起）。2012年12月19日在台灣證交所掛牌上市，歸類於汽車工業類股。主要生產與營運據點位於中國廣東省東莞市厚街鎮。董事長為余澤民，總經理為黃建中。實收資本額約新台幣8.38億元，已發行股數約8,384萬股；股東人數約5.6萬人，外資持股約7%，前十大股東合計約21.68%（資料以鉅亨網／Goodinfo等公開資訊彙整，員工人數未取得確切數字）。財務面：2025年全年合併營收約新台幣52.86億元、全年EPS約-2.24元；2026年第1季EPS約-1.15元，近年處於虧損、毛利率約20~25%的調整期。
Business
公司專注於汽車內飾件之表面加飾與塑膠零組件製造銷售，核心工藝包含水轉印（曲面印刷）、噴漆塗裝、EPF加膜轉印、射出成型、模具製造，以及近年主推的高單價『電裝發光（發光飾件）』與獨家『真木』天然木飾技術。產品結構上，塗裝件與轉印件長年合計佔比逾60%，其餘為模具、成型件、電裝發光件等。客戶結構由日系主導轉向多元化：日系客戶佔比由2020年約75%降至2024年約46%（以日產Nissan、豐田Toyota為代表，如漢蘭達門飾板）；歐美系約25%（含上汽大眾、一汽大眾、Volvo、Chrysler、GM）；中國自主品牌由2020年約7.6%提升至2024年約28%（比亞迪約10%、長城約8%為主，另有賽力斯／華為問界M9、本田S7/P7發光件等）。商業模式正由汽車廠的二階（Tier 2）代工，轉型為具自主設計能力、可參與車廠開發的一階（Tier 1）供應商，以提升議價力並避開純代工殺價競爭。生產採全球多據點佈局：中國（東莞為核心，並拓展華中、華東）、北美（墨西哥生產廠＋美國服務據點）、台灣、韓國（設廠）、日本（服務／前端設計）。
Outlook 2025–2028
成長動能：1) 2024年接單量創近年新高，預期自2025年起逐步貢獻營收，並於2026~2027年達到營運高峰，目標逐步轉虧為盈；2) 高單價、高附加價值的『電裝發光』產品（結合miniLED、皮革透光、光學／熱流／電路／驅動軟體跨領域技術）與獨家『真木』內飾為獲利成長重點——2026年真木技術切入廣汽豐田純電旗艦轎跑鉑智7（bZ7），成為全球豐田體系首個真木產品一階供應商，並有望複製至更多日系與自主品牌車款；3) 中國自主品牌（比亞迪、長城、賽力斯／問界等）電動車滲透帶動高單價發光件、機構件訂單。擴產／佈局：墨西哥廠因北美訂單能見度強勁且已穩定獲利，2024年取得約6萬平方米土地，新建廠房與塗裝線，規劃2025年第三季末至第四季投產，作為因應北美關稅與地緣風險之關鍵據點。產業趨勢：汽車內飾朝智慧化、發光化、輕量化、環保化與高質感（木紋、真木、氛圍燈）發展。風險與挑戰：中國車市『內卷』式價格競爭激烈、日系品牌在華市佔下滑；中美關稅（中國輸美關稅一度高達約104%，公司稱即便+54%毛利幾近歸零）需與客戶協商分攤或移轉產地；公司目前仍處虧損、股價淨值比偏低，轉盈時點與訂單放量節奏為主要觀察點。（2027~2028年屬公司展望延伸推估，具不確定性。）
Supply Chain
- 工程塑膠／樹脂原料（ABS、PP、PC等）供應商 射出成型與飾件之主要塑膠基材；公司未具名披露特定供應商，墨西哥廠原料多來自美國以符合北美價值成分規定
- 塗料／油墨／水轉印膜供應商 噴漆塗裝、曲面（水轉印）印刷與EPF加膜轉印所需塗料與轉印材料；具體廠商未公開
- LED／miniLED 及電子零組件供應商 電裝發光件所需光源、電路與驅動元件；具體廠商未公開
- 天然木皮／木飾材料供應商 『真木』內飾所需天然木材與表面處理材料；具體廠商未公開
- 皮革／表皮材料供應商 發光件皮革透光等高階飾件用表皮材料；具體廠商未公開
- 日產 Nissan 日系主要客戶（日本上市，TYO:7201）；內飾飾件供應
- 豐田 Toyota／廣汽豐田 日系客戶（日本上市，TYO:7203）；漢蘭達門飾板，並於純電鉑智7(bZ7)導入真木內飾，為全球豐田體系首個真木一階供應商
- 比亞迪 BYD 中國自主品牌最大客戶之一（港股／深圳A股上市）；唐／漢車系電飾條、車載冰箱機構件、發光件
- 長城汽車 Great Wall 中國自主品牌客戶（港股／上海A股上市）；發光車標等
- 賽力斯／華為 問界（AITO M9） 中國新能源車客戶（賽力斯上海A股上市）；內飾／發光件
- 本田 Honda（S7／P7） 日系客戶（日本上市）；主副駕發光件（miniLED、皮革透光）
- 歐美車廠（Volvo、Chrysler、GM、上汽大眾、一汽大眾） 歐美系客戶群（多為海外上市或合資車廠）；內飾飾件供應
Competitors
- 寧波華翔 中國深圳A股上市（SZ:002048），汽車內外飾件與木飾件大廠，直接同業
- 常熟汽飾 中國上海A股上市（SH:603035），汽車內飾件同業
- 新泉股份 中國上海A股上市（SH:603179），汽車內飾件（儀表板、門板）同業
- 豐田紡織 Toyota Boshoku 日本上市（TYO:3116），汽車內裝系統大廠，日系體系競爭者
- 佛吉亞 Forvia/Faurecia、安通林 Antolin 歐洲未在台掛牌之國際內飾巨頭，於高階內飾與表面加飾市場競爭
Sources（10）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.