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1423

利華 Textiles As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, discounted valuation.

1 active signal
252d high
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 利華 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 87Quality 26Growth 62Momentum 62Chips 49

Is 利華 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 23th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 0.4%.

  • Valuation is low.PE is in the 13th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 16th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 0.3% of volume (net buy).

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.91
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 台灣企銀-建成 holds 2,542 lots
  • sellers have 105 lots left, ~30 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +18% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 台灣企銀-建成 has accumulated 2,542 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 凱基-台北 peaked at 136 lots, has sold 74%, 36 left, ~21 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +1.74pp, mid holders +1, retail -2.14pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -37 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
台灣企銀-建成花旗環球美商高盛台新證券玉山證券台新-台中
Distributing
凱基-台北國泰-台南台灣摩根士丹利兆豐證券富邦-二林新光-台中
Desks
own scale
元大-仁愛統一-桃園富邦-高雄合庫-西台中
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 台灣企銀-建成 +2,542
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 花旗環球 +43
    sold 16%
  • 美商高盛 +39
    sold 19%· still adding
  • 台新證券 +30
    sold 0%
  • 玉山證券 +25
    sold 0%
  • 台新-台中 +21
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 凱基-台北 36 left
    sold 74%· ~21 sessions to clear
  • 國泰-台南 60 left
    sold 43%· paused recently
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 42 left
    sold 56%· ~11 sessions to clear
  • 兆豐證券 14 left
    sold 74%· ~16 sessions to clear
  • 富邦-二林 22 left
    sold 52%· paused recently
  • 新光-台中 3 left
    sold 77%· paused recently

Desks

  • 元大-仁愛 -577
    unclassified
  • 統一-桃園 -344
    unclassified
  • 富邦-高雄 -179
    unclassified
  • 合庫-西台中 -157
    unclassified
Still selling 105 lots ~30 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +1,484 absorbed / -84 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -31 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

31 historical occurrences (since 2009-09-15)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 50%, Sample 30, Median 0%, Excess +0.32%, Beat mkt rate 40%；60-day: Win 58.6%, Sample 29, Median +3.55%, Excess -1.22%, Beat mkt rate 51.7%；120-day: Win 75%, Sample 28, Median +8.41%, Excess +0.07%, Beat mkt rate 60.7%

120 days after: historical avg +10%

20-day +2.3%
60-day +5.71%
120-day +10%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
50%
58.6%
75%
Sample
30
29
28
Median
0%
+3.55%
+8.41%
Excess
+0.32%
-1.22%
+0.07%
Beat mkt rate
40%
51.7%
60.7%

Over 28 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 10%, beat the market by 0.07 pts; win rate 75%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 You are here369+46.6% +11.2% 84.3% +18.4%
20-40 190+14% +13.6% 88.4% -11.1%
40-60 173+45% +21.2% 95.4% +8.2%
60-80 303+24.7% +24.2% 94.4% -8.2%
80-100 300+12.7% +6.4% 71.3% -10.9%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 11.91, at the 16.0th percentile of its own history (0-20 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
Now
+14.8%
Win rate 58.4% Excess -2.6%
351d
+37.1%
Win rate 91.7% Excess +6.2%
240d
+6.8%
Win rate 79.7% Excess -4.3%
413d
60-day momentum down
+10.8%
Win rate 84.7% Excess +6%
242d
+15.3%
Win rate 100% Excess -5%
61d
+6.1%
Win rate 75% Excess +3.6%
136d

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 351 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 14.8%, win rate 58.4%, lagged the market by 2.6%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Pending

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

53 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.81%, win rate 61.2%, beating the market by +1.37 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

36 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.28%, win rate 58.8%, beating the market by -0.75 pts on average.

What does 利華 do? Company profile

紡織纖維 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

利華為利華羊毛工業股份有限公司，統一編號11311608，成立於1964年7月23日，1979年4月2日於台灣證券交易所上市，屬上市普通股。公司總部登記於台北市忠孝東路四段310號12樓；主要生產據點為桃園新屋廠，歷史上曾設基隆六堵廠。董事長為應柔爾，總經理及發言人依2026年公開資料為洪志成，代理發言人為楊遵五。實收資本額為996,480,000元，已發行普通股99,648,000股。公開求職資料顯示新屋廠員工約96人，但該數字可能非最新年報口徑。主要內部人及大股東包含中城投資股份有限公司約15.85%、恆昌投資股份有限公司約13.71%、利泰投資股份有限公司約11.67%，董事長應柔爾為中城投資法人代表。2025年稅後淨利約4.33968億元、EPS約4.36元，但主要來自營業外收益，非羊毛本業；2026年3月董事會決議2025年度每股現金股利3.6元。

Business

利華是台灣老牌羊毛加工與毛條廠，主要產品為毛條、防縮毛條、炭化毛、羊毛脂及少量代工或脂肪酸相關收入。公司商業模式為自國外進口羊毛原毛，經洗毛、梳毛、精梳、併條、成球與防縮等加工後，銷售給下游紡紗廠、針織梳毛紗或織布紗廠，終端應用主要為毛紡、針織、織布、服飾與高端羊毛紡織品。2025年產品營收結構為毛條48,485.43千元、占56.78%；防縮毛條36,310.28千元、占42.53%；代工及脂肪酸589.18千元、占0.69%。2025年度營收淨額約85,388千元，較2024年度104,444千元衰退約18%，內銷約51,081千元、外銷約34,307千元；營業損失約65,419千元，顯示羊毛本業規模縮小且仍虧損。公司近年另以太陽光電、廠房不動產租賃、財務投資與六堵廠資產活化補強收益來源。2025年度太陽光電年發電量約1,822MWh，較前一年大幅增加；法說會摘要另揭露建置容量約1,472kW、減碳效果約86萬公斤。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025年：高端服飾與非必要民生消費需求仍弱，利華羊毛本業營收與出貨量下滑，但受惠轉投資、廠地租賃、太陽光電及財務投資收益，全年獲利大幅增加。2026年：公司年報與法說會對羊毛本業採保守策略，預期銷售量較2025年實際銷量更低，毛條、防縮毛條與未炭化屑毛合計預期銷售量有限；成長動能主要來自功能性、特殊化、環保可追溯毛條產品，減少高耗能防縮加工，外購優質毛條與防縮毛條後再作多功能加工，以及太陽能發電擴充、廠房租賃與資產處分。2027至2028年：公司未公布明確量化財測，合理推估仍將以本業精緻化與資產收益雙軌並行；若全球高端羊毛服飾需求復甦、澳洲羊毛供給偏低推升價格並帶動補庫存，毛條業務可能改善，但若價格上漲無法轉嫁或需求未回升，毛利仍承壓。中長期機會包括政府綠能政策、太陽能發電收益、六堵廠土地或廠房活化處分、節能設備汰換、ESG與動物友善可追溯原料認證需求。主要風險包括美國關稅與全球供應鏈重組造成客戶成本上升、中國大陸內需與房地產問題拖累毛紡需求、日韓傳統毛紡聚落萎縮、澳洲羊毛價格與匯率波動、電力成本與缺電風險、環保與動物福利認證成本、羊毛本業規模過小導致固定成本吸收不足，以及近年獲利高度仰賴營業外收益的可持續性風險。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 澳洲羊毛拍賣市場與國外羊毛代理商 主要原毛來源；公開資料指出公司原毛多透過澳洲代理商於羊毛公開拍賣市場競標採購，屬非台股掛牌供應來源。
  • 伊藤忠商事 日本綜合商社；1992年曾與利華及台灣應氏集團合資成立利華寧波羊毛工業，具歷史策略與供應鏈關係，非台股掛牌。
  • 利華寧波羊毛工業有限公司 曾為中國大陸生產及加工關係企業，過去承接炭化毛加工；年報資料顯示投資已涉及清算損失，非台股掛牌。
  • 太陽能光電設備與工程供應商 公司近年擴充太陽光電收益，但公開資料未查得具名供應商；非特定台股公司。
Downstream
  • 日本、台灣與中國大陸紡紗廠 毛條與防縮毛條主要銷售地區為日本、台灣及大陸，供紡紗廠紡針織梳毛紗、織布紗或防縮織布紗；公開資料未揭露具名客戶。
  • 歐洲羊毛脂買方 羊毛脂銷售以歐洲國家為主；公開資料未揭露具名客戶，非特定台股掛牌公司。
  • 廠房租賃承租戶 公司以六堵廠與廠房空間出租或活化產生租賃收益；2025年年報提及截至年底尚有承租戶待搬遷，未揭露具名公司。
  • 台灣電力公司 太陽光電發電收益通常與售電或自用節電相關；台電為國營事業，非上市櫃公司。

Competitors

  • 雋揚國際股份有限公司 1439 前身為中和羊毛工業，曾為毛條及防縮毛條競爭者；近年已逐步轉型不動產開發，羊毛本業競爭強度可能下降。
  • The Japan Wool Textile Co., Ltd. 日本毛紡業者，MoneyDJ列為利華主要競爭者；非台股上市櫃公司。
  • TOABO Corporation 日本毛紡相關業者，MoneyDJ列為利華主要競爭者；非台股上市櫃公司。
  • 浙江新澳紡織股份有限公司 中國A股毛精紡紗與羊毛產品企業，屬區域性毛紡供應鏈競爭參考；非台股上市櫃公司。
  • 遠東新世紀股份有限公司 1402 台灣大型紡織與聚酯纖維廠，產品結構與利華不完全相同，屬廣義紡織材料與下游供應鏈競爭參考。
Sources（14）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.