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4804

大略-KY Tourism & Hospitality As of 2026-07-28 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, premium valuation, no active signal today.

This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 大略-KY to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
估值 12品質 2成長 54動能 50籌碼 50

Is 大略-KY a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • 獲利能力偏弱。營業利益率僅勝過全市場約 4% 的個股。最新一季 ROE 約 -45.9%。

  • 估值偏貴。本益比落在全市場第 97 百分位，比多數個股貴。以自身歷史看，目前本益比約在第 93 百分位。

Chip flow

Bullish +0.98
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 台新-高雄 holds 793 lots
  • sellers have 53 lots left, ~70 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -47% · branches to 2026-04-13· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 台新-高雄 has accumulated 793 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 國泰-敦南 peaked at 93 lots, has sold 75%, 23 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +5.37pp, mid holders +2, retail -4.90pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -51 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
台新-高雄永豐金-松山兆豐-大安康和永豐金-中正永豐金-新店
Distributing
國泰-敦南永豐金-羅東永豐金-潮州永豐金證券大昌-新店元大-大里
Desks
own scale
富邦-木柵永豐金-板新高橋-龍潭凱基-站前
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 台新-高雄 +793
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 永豐金-松山 +556
    sold 1%
  • 兆豐-大安 +356
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 康和 +220
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 永豐金-中正 +204
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 永豐金-新店 +200
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 國泰-敦南 23 left
    sold 75%· paused recently
  • 永豐金-羅東 9 left
    sold 80%· ~3 sessions to clear
  • 永豐金-潮州 26 left
    sold 35%· paused recently
  • 永豐金證券 14 left
    sold 48%· ~70 sessions to clear
  • 大昌-新店 15 left
    sold 25%· ~30 sessions to clear
  • 元大-大里 7 left
    sold 42%· ~14 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 富邦-木柵 -732
    unclassified
  • 永豐金-板新 -291
    unclassified
  • 高橋-龍潭 -248
    unclassified
  • 凱基-站前 -209
    unclassified
Still selling 53 lots ~70 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +2,758 absorbed / -54 sold buyers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

估值位階與後續報酬

把這檔股票每天的本益比，換算成「截至當天為止的自身歷史百分位」，再看不同估值位階之後 240 個交易日的還原股價報酬。

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 0Insufficient data
20-40 0Insufficient data
40-60 0Insufficient data
60-80 0Insufficient data
80-100 You are here0Insufficient data

百分位以當天為止的自身歷史滾動計算（expanding），不含未來資訊；前瞻報酬為還原股價 240 交易日。樣本日重疊，僅供分布參考。

目前本益比約 188.75，落在自身歷史第 93.3 百分位，屬於 80-100 區間。

估值 × 動能的歷史對照

把自身歷史的每一天，依估值位階（本益比自身歷史三分位）與 60 日動能方向分成六格，看各情境之後 120 個交易日的還原股價報酬。

Valuation
Momentum
便宜
中等
昂貴
向上
Insufficient data
(0d)
Insufficient data
(0d)
Now
Insufficient data
(0d)
向下
Insufficient data
(0d)
Insufficient data
(21d)
-21.5%
Win rate 0% Excess -27.1%
88d

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

這個訊號在全市場是否站得住腳

「月營收年增率 ≥ 20%」過去 243 個月，每月平均約 404 檔個股符合條件；這些個股之後 60 個交易日的還原股價報酬，等權平均為 6.99%，平均贏過大盤 2.32 個百分點，在 64.2% 的月份中跑贏發行量加權股價報酬指數。

每月對全市場符合訊號的股票取等權平均前瞻 60 日還原報酬，再對月份平均；超額相對發行量加權股價報酬指數

目前未成立的訊號（歷史統計供參）

這些訊號現在沒有發生，列出歷史樣本以供對照

股價創 252 日新高（突破日）

Pending

還原股價首次站上過去 252 個交易日最高；20 日內重複觸發只計一次

月營收年增率 ≥ 20%（公告截止日起算）

Pending

單月營收年增率達 20% 以上；事件日為公告截止日後第一個交易日，避免提前用到未公告資訊

36 times historically; 60-day forward avg -0.52%, win rate 26.9%, beating the market by -5.89 pts on average.

外資連續買超滿 5 個交易日

Pending

外資（不含自營商）買賣超連續 5 日為正，事件日為第 5 日；20 日內重複觸發只計一次

11 times historically; 60-day forward avg -14.66%, win rate 27.3%, beating the market by -20.17 pts on average.

方法與限制

  • 所有報酬以還原股價（etl:adj_close）計算，已還原除權息與股票分割。
  • 超額報酬以發行量加權股價報酬指數（含息）為基準。
  • 估值位階與分位統計以「截至當天為止的自身歷史」滾動計算，不使用未來資訊。
  • 營收訊號的事件日對齊到公告截止日後第一個交易日，避免提前用到尚未公開的資訊。
  • 事件樣本之間日期可能重疊，統計僅描述歷史分布，樣本數較少時參考價值有限。

本頁內容為歷史資料統計與教育用途，不構成投資建議。投資一定有風險，過去績效不代表未來表現，交易前請自行評估並承擔風險。