Ask AI to review this stock
Copy the prompt to get recent events, historical reactions, and a short research brief.
Tell your AI:
Help me set up FinLab and analyze 5903 全家. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=5903
5903
quality needs a look, fair valuation, no active signal today.
Is 全家 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
-
Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 30th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 2.8%.
-
Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 58th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 29th percentile.
-
Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -10.4% of volume (net sell).
Chip flow
Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -1% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 富邦證券 has accumulated 756 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
- Main distributor 美商高盛 peaked at 46 lots, has sold 74%, 12 left, ~40 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -0.56pp, mid holders +4, retail -0.75pp — little change.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -182 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 富邦證券 +756
- 德信 +466
- 美林 +65
- 港商野村 +41
- 富邦-花蓮 +27
- 永豐金證券 +26
Distributing
- 美商高盛 12 left
- 元富-吉利 5 left
- 臺銀-臺南 3 left
- 台新 1 left
- 兆豐-公益 6 left
- 元大-屏南 2 left
Desks
- 凱基-台北 -113
- 台灣摩根士丹利 -64
- 摩根大通 -40
- 華南永昌-台中 -37
Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 955 | +4.7% | +5.5% | 62.6% | -23.4% |
| 20-40 You are here | 794 | +4.4% | +4.4% | 65.7% | -8.9% |
| 40-60 | 329 | +0.8% | +2.9% | 59.9% | -10.1% |
| 60-80 | 388 | +9.8% | +6.7% | 74.2% | -3.2% |
| 80-100 | 560 | +11.8% | +9.4% | 68.2% | +5.3% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 27.16, at the 29.1th percentile of its own history (20-40 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 769 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 3.1%, win rate 54%, lagged the market by 10.8%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
29 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.3%, win rate 41.4%, beating the market by +0.22 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
13 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.92%, win rate 54.5%, beating the market by +0.89 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
59 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.78%, win rate 50%, beating the market by -2.29 pts on average.
What does 全家 do? Company profile
Overview
5903 對應證券為全家便利商店股份有限公司普通股，股票簡稱「全家」，於櫃買中心上櫃。公司成立於1988年8月18日，2002年2月25日上櫃，總部位於台北市中山區中山北路二段61號7樓；董事長為葉榮廷，總經理為薛東都。公司資本額22億3220萬元，發行普通股223,220,000股，員工數公司官網揭露為7,387人。主要業務為連鎖便利商店之投資及經營。主要股東包括日商全家便利商店股份有限公司100,449,000股、持股45.00%；萬寶開發股份有限公司43,300,000股、持股19.40%；光泉牧場股份有限公司11,808,511股、持股5.29%；日商P.F.Investment Co., Ltd. 11,161,001股、持股5.00%；三洋藥品工業股份有限公司7,388,663股、持股3.31%；陳玉蓮約3.25%；泰山企業股份有限公司約3.06%。2025年度合併營收1100.42億元，歸屬母公司淨利16.96億元，EPS 7.60元；2024年度因認列中國投資架構重整一次性利益，使基期較高。
Business
全家為台灣第二大便利商店體系之一，商業模式以直營與加盟便利商店網路為核心，販售鮮食、飲料、咖啡、甜點、一般食品、日用品、菸酒與自有品牌商品，並提供代收、寄取件、票券、ATM、APP會員、點數、支付、預購、店到店、宅家取與FamiNow等生活服務。2025年度收入結構依產品及勞務別為：商品銷售收入1020.97億元、約92.78%；餐飲服務收入26.82億元、約2.44%；手續費收入等52.63億元、約4.78%。依營運部門外部收入：零售部門1031.02億元、約93.69%；物流部門33.20億元、約3.02%；其他營運部門36.20億元、約3.29%。主要商品與品牌包括Let’s Café、Fami!ce、minimore、金飯糰、uno pasta、熱食、FamiCollection、健康志向、植覺生活等。集團以全台物流、日翊、福比、晉欣、屏榮、長家國際食品等物流與鮮食供應鏈支撐門市，並透過全家APP、MFP APP、全盈支付、會員資料與OMO服務提升交易頻率與客單。終端客戶以台灣一般消費者、社區家庭客群、上班族、學生、旅客、電商取貨客與加盟店經營者為主。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025至2028年主要成長動能預期來自：一、持續展店與店型優化，2025年底總店數已達約4470店，2026年新聞指出總店數將突破4500店；二、鮮食與自有品牌升級，Let’s Café、minimore、uno pasta、金飯糰、健康志向、植覺生活等可提高毛利與差異化；三、OMO與會員經濟，全家APP、隨買跨店取、店到店、FamiNow、電商取貨、個人化推薦與全盈支付可強化資料變現與顧客黏著；四、供應鏈投資與自動化，包括物流中心、自營鮮食廠、麵包廠、AI訂購、智能POS與智能咖啡機，可緩解缺工並提升周轉；五、3N成長策略：新事業（全盈支付、全寵家、餐飲）、新店型（FamiSuper、複合店、寵物專區）、新市場（中國投資架構重整後的區域再布局）可提供第二成長曲線；六、全家餐飲7708上櫃後，餐飲轉投資透明度與擴張彈性提高。主要風險包括台灣便利商店密度高、統一超商競爭強、全聯與量販超市分食家庭採購、外送與電商改變消費路徑、最低工資與缺工推升營運費用、租金與電價壓力、食品安全與鮮食庫存報廢、菸品政策與加熱菸銷售不確定性、中國市場投資回收不確定，以及高股權集中造成流動性較低。2026至2028的具體營收與獲利預測未由公司正式給出，本段涉及未來展望者屬研究推估。
Supply Chain
- 日商全家便利商店股份有限公司 最大股東，持股45.00%，提供FamilyMart品牌、便利商店經營 know-how 與體系支援；非台股掛牌公司。
- 全台物流股份有限公司 全家持股51.70%的物流子公司，負責常溫、冷藏、冷凍、恆溫等多溫層商品訂購、採購、理貨、配送與庫存管理；2025年全家對其進貨483.41億元，佔總進貨66.45%；未公開發行。
- 日翊文化行銷股份有限公司 全家100%持股子公司，倉儲、理貨包裝及相關流通服務；2025年全家對其進貨64.83億元，佔總進貨8.91%；未上市櫃。
- 屏榮食品股份有限公司 全家採權益法評價之鮮食供應商，生產便當、三明治、壽司、飯糰、甜點等；2025年全家對其進貨46.42億元，佔總進貨6.38%；未上市櫃。
- 晉欣食品股份有限公司 全家100%持股鮮食製造子公司，2025年全家對其進貨24.11億元，佔總進貨3.31%；未上市櫃。
- 福比股份有限公司 全家持股93.50%的麵包與食品製造子公司，由全家與日本OKIKO合資成立；2025年全家對其進貨14.24億元，佔總進貨1.96%；未上市櫃。
- 長家國際食品股份有限公司 全家採權益法評價之鮮食製造公司，與長榮空廚合作設立專責義大利麵等鮮食產能；2025年全家對其進貨9.21億元，佔總進貨1.27%；未上市櫃。
- 精藤股份有限公司 全家持股70%的系統整合與資訊服務子公司，提供連鎖流通系統開發、運用、維護與顧問服務；未上市櫃。
- 台灣一般消費者與會員 主要終端客戶，透過全台便利商店門市、APP、店到店、預購、咖啡與鮮食等消費；非公司法人。
- 加盟主與門市營運夥伴 全家便利商店重要通路與營運節點，透過加盟制度擴大門市覆蓋；非台股掛牌公司。
- 全家國際餐飲股份有限公司 7708 全家持股61.96%的餐飲子公司，經營大戶屋、bb.q CHICKEN、IKIGAI等品牌，為集團跨足外食與餐飲通路的重要下游事業，已上櫃。
- 全盈支付金融科技股份有限公司 全家持股51%的電子支付子公司，串連門市、線上支付、儲值、轉帳與會員場景；未上市櫃。
- 電商與物流取貨客戶 透過店到店、電商取貨、宅家取、FamiNow等服務接觸平台賣家與消費者；多數合作平台非全家直接控制，個別合作對象未逐一確認。
Competitors
- 統一超商股份有限公司 2912 台灣7-ELEVEN經營者，台灣便利商店龍頭，為全家最直接競爭對手。
- 萊爾富國際股份有限公司 Hi-Life便利商店經營者，台灣主要便利商店同業之一；未上市櫃。
- 來來超商股份有限公司 OK mart經營者，台灣便利商店同業；未上市櫃。
- 三商家購股份有限公司 2945 美廉社經營者，社區型民生零售與小型超市，與便利商店在家庭補貨、飲料食品、日用品等品類競爭。
- 全聯實業股份有限公司 台灣大型超市與社區零售通路，與全家在鮮食、民生用品、家庭採購需求競爭；未上市櫃。
Sources（14）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.