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6426

統新 Communications & Internet As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, premium valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 統新 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 12Quality 68Growth 88Momentum 80Chips 63

Is 統新 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 68th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 3.1%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 98th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 99th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 2.2% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 70.2%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.16
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution, concentration falling — bearish

  • Distribution, concentration falling — bearish
  • 摩根大通 holds 710 lots
  • sellers have 1,493 lots left, ~775 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +116% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 摩根大通 has accumulated 710 lots since the start (sold 2%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 華南永昌-南京 peaked at 944 lots, has sold 45%, 523 left, ~43 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -2.87pp, mid holders +2, retail -2.77pp — little change.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -98 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
摩根大通富邦-樹林永豐金-潮州元大-大安台新-新興台新證券
Distributing
華南永昌-南京港商野村凱基-站前國泰證券台灣摩根士丹利統一
Desks
own scale
國泰-館前新光-台南元大-天母富邦-仁愛
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 摩根大通 +710
    sold 2%· still adding
  • 富邦-樹林 +167
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 永豐金-潮州 +133
    sold 5%· still adding
  • 元大-大安 +110
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 台新-新興 +101
    sold 9%
  • 台新證券 +98
    sold 4%

Distributing

  • 華南永昌-南京 523 left
    sold 45%· ~43 sessions to clear
  • 港商野村 131 left
    sold 82%· ~655 sessions to clear
  • 凱基-站前 121 left
    sold 82%· paused recently
  • 國泰證券 310 left
    sold 51%· ~775 sessions to clear
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 175 left
    sold 70%· paused recently
  • 統一 111 left
    sold 80%· ~21 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 國泰-館前 -335
    unclassified
  • 新光-台南 -233
    unclassified
  • 元大-天母 -152
    unclassified
  • 富邦-仁愛 -140
    unclassified
Still selling 1,493 lots ~775 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +759 absorbed / -828 sold sellers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -54 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 70.17%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

55 historical occurrences (since 2014-12-17)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 56%, Sample 50, Median +3.23%, Excess +3.95%, Beat mkt rate 54%；60-day: Win 52.1%, Sample 48, Median +0.59%, Excess +9.45%, Beat mkt rate 43.8%；120-day: Win 47.8%, Sample 46, Median -3.66%, Excess +4.87%, Beat mkt rate 37%

120 days after: historical avg +18.78%

20-day +5.8%
60-day +15.75%
120-day +18.78%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
56%
52.1%
47.8%
Sample
50
48
46
Median
+3.23%
+0.59%
-3.66%
Excess
+3.95%
+9.45%
+4.87%
Beat mkt rate
54%
43.8%
37%

Over 46 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 18.78%, beat the market by 4.87 pts; win rate 47.8%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 0Insufficient data
20-40 41-0.5% -10% 26.8% -2.3%
40-60 363-10.4% -22.6% 32.2% -26.6%
60-80 336+19% -5.2% 42.9% -19.4%
80-100 You are here409+65.3% +37.1% 64.8% +58.1%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 375.0, at the 98.8th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
Insufficient data
(25d)
-14.6%
Win rate 11.4% Excess -33.7%
132d
Now
+5.9%
Win rate 41.1% Excess +3.7%
333d
60-day momentum down
+45%
Win rate 65% Excess +4.9%
40d
-4.5%
Win rate 36.5% Excess -22.1%
417d
+41.5%
Win rate 77% Excess +43.5%
322d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 333 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 5.9%, win rate 41.1%, beat the market by 3.7%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

14 times historically; 60-day forward avg +40.19%, win rate 50%, beating the market by +34.39 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

39 times historically; 60-day forward avg +9.32%, win rate 43.6%, beating the market by +4.62 pts on average.

What does 統新 do? Company profile

通信網路業；光通訊薄膜濾光片與精密光學鍍膜 上市

Overview

6426 對應證券為統新光訊股份有限公司普通股，英文名稱 APOGEE OPTOCOM CO., LTD.，股票簡稱統新，為台灣證券交易所上市公司。公司於 2003 年 8 月 1 日創立於南部科學園區，總公司位於台南市新市區南科三路7號4樓，另公司官網聯絡資訊列示台南科學園區南科三路5號1樓。主要業務為薄膜濾光片設計、生產、銷售及光學鍍膜元件加工。曾於 2014 年 12 月 17 日上櫃，2021 年 3 月 24 日轉上市。實收資本額約新台幣 3.8509 億元，發行股數 38,509,000 股，每股面額新台幣 10 元。董事長為李英坤，總經理為魏敬易；年報註明原總經理藍宏利於 2025 年 2 月 28 日退休，董事會於 2025 年 3 月 11 日通過魏敬易總經理任用案。員工規模依 114 年度年報截至 115 年第一季為 208 人，直接人員 154 人、間接人員 54 人，平均年齡 39.03 歲、平均服務年資 7.55 年；114 年度全年員工合計 213 人。2026 年 4 月 28 日前十大股東包括鼎峰投資有限公司 16.48%、勝霖投資有限公司 14.25%、中國信託託管博科發展有限公司投資專戶 4.21%、孫金釧 1.85%、大通託管 JP Morgan 證券有限公司投資專戶 0.96%、寶望投資有限公司 0.90%、游宏楨 0.88%、蕭錫懋 0.82%、匯豐銀行託管高盛國際公司投資專戶 0.81%、張金昌 0.78%。114 年度合併營收 4.8731 億元，年增 47.74%；稅後淨損 2,998.6 萬元，每股虧損 0.78 元，虧損較 113 年度每股虧損 3.58 元收斂。

Business

公司核心技術為真空光學鍍膜與薄膜濾光片。主要產品包括光通訊主動元件使用之薄膜濾光片，例如 E-PON、G-PON；光通訊被動元件使用之薄膜濾光片，例如 CWDM、DWDM、LanWDM；以及光學與功能性薄膜加工。主要應用涵蓋資料中心、高速交換器、AI 伺服器、5G/6G 通訊、光纖到戶、PON、物聯網、低軌衛星、生醫檢測、影像感測、LiDAR、AR、半導體 CIS 與晶圓級光學鍍膜。114 年度營收結構為光學鍍膜元件 4.87205 億元、占 99.98%，其他產品 10.5 萬元、占 0.02%；113 年度光學鍍膜元件占 99.83%。銷售地區方面，114 年度內銷 7.33%，外銷 92.67%，其中亞洲 87.59%、美洲 4.75%、歐洲 0.33%；顯示公司以亞洲光通訊供應鏈與國際客戶為主要市場。商業模式為接收模組廠、系統廠、通訊設備供應鏈或特殊光學應用客戶規格，進行客製化光學膜系設計、鍍膜、切割、檢測與交付；產品多屬非標準品，技術門檻在鍍膜設備、膜層設計、材料特性、精密量測與良率控制。年報揭露主要客戶以 A、B、C、D 匿名表示，114 年 A 客戶占營收 14.29%、C 客戶 13.68%、B 客戶 8.28%、D 客戶 7.33%，單一客戶均未超過 20%；公司說明 A、B 客戶以中國及韓國 5G 光纖骨幹網路訂單居多，C 為光纖通訊被動元件專業製造商，D 主要經營精密電子零組件及通訊材料供應與貿易。研發重點包括雲端資料中心 800G、1.6T 應用濾光片製程與組裝技術，6/8/12 吋晶圓級真空光學鍍膜，IR-Cut、DBR、AR、VIS/NIR/MIR/FIR 帶通或長波通濾光器、Index match ITO 等。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 年公司營收明顯回升，114 年度營收年增 47.74%，虧損大幅收斂，反映 5G 基礎建設、光通訊需求與高階濾光片出貨改善。2026 年公司年報列示預期濾光片出貨量約 8,415 仟顆，營運方針包括提高鍍膜產量與良率、導入數位化視覺檢測與高階量測設備、突破鍍膜設備產能瓶頸、導入高精密治具降低切割損耗，以及建構企業級伺服器與 AI 智能決策系統以縮短規格評估與報價流程。銷售策略上，公司明確點名美國 BEAD 寬頻基建與 AI 資料中心建設 2026 年應會啟動；800G 需求大但價格偏低，公司擬透過調價、交期與服務優化維持利潤；1.6T 與 CPO 則希望與系統廠或模組商建立策略合作、共同驗證與共同市場推廣。2025 至 2028 年的主要成長動能預期來自 AI 資料中心頻寬升級、800G 往 1.6T 光模組轉換、矽光子與 CPO 商用化、WDM 被動元件需求增加、低軌衛星雷射通訊、生醫與 LiDAR 等高毛利特殊鍍膜應用。公司短期開發計畫包括 1.6T Gbps 光通訊模組用濾光片、CPO 鍍膜應用、中紅外感測器用帶通濾光片；長期開發計畫包括 PIC 光學元件鍍膜製程、低地球軌道衛星太陽能電池封裝、超快雷射光學元件。風險與挑戰包括 800G 價格競爭、客製化品項難以大量標準化、產能與良率爬坡、玻璃基板與 TA2O5 等原料成本與交期、匯率波動、客戶訂單週期、CPO/矽光子商用時程不確定、國際大廠與中國供應鏈競爭，以及若 AI 資料中心資本支出放緩將影響高階光模組拉貨。2027 至 2028 年展望屬依公司年報揭露之五年研發方向與產業趨勢所作推估，非公司正式財測。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 日本玻璃基板供應商 B1 年報以匿名 B1 揭露，為玻璃基板供應商；114 年採購金額與占比增加。非台股掛牌名稱未揭露。
  • TA2O5 供應商 B2、B3、B6 年報揭露主要原物料包含 TA2O5，B2、B3、B6 為 TA2O5 供應商；公司按單價與交期調整供應商份額，實名未揭露。
  • Grid 供應商 B4、B5 年報揭露 B4、B5 為 Grid 供應商；B4 因預期交期拉長與漲價曾大量採購，實名未揭露。
  • 鍍膜設備、量測設備與高精密治具供應鏈 公司以鍍膜設備、精密量測設備、視覺檢測及切割治具提升產能與良率；具體供應商未揭露。
Downstream
  • A 客戶 年報匿名揭露之主要客戶，114 年占營收 14.29%，產品以薄膜濾光片為主，包含物聯網、伺服器市場及 5G 相關濾光片；公司說明 A、B 客戶以中國及韓國 5G 光纖骨幹網路訂單居多。
  • C 客戶 年報匿名揭露之主要客戶，114 年占營收 13.68%；公司說明 C 為光纖通訊被動元件專業製造商。
  • B 客戶 年報匿名揭露之主要客戶，114 年占營收 8.28%；公司說明 B 客戶以中國華中地區當地電信商訂單居多且較穩定。
  • D 客戶 年報匿名揭露之主要客戶，114 年占營收 7.33%；公司說明 D 主要經營精密電子零組件及通訊材料供應與貿易，涵蓋 5G 通訊、精密工業及消費性電子配套供應鏈。
  • 波若威 3163 媒體引述法人稱統新為波若威光通訊濾波片供應商，屬公開報導資訊；公司年報未實名揭露是否為 A/B/C/D 客戶。
  • 大型雲端服務供應商與 AI 資料中心終端需求 年報列示 Google、Microsoft、Meta、Amazon AWS 等 CSP 資本支出推動 800G、1.6T 光模組需求；此為終端需求來源，非公司直接客戶揭露。

Competitors

  • 東典光電 6588 台股上櫃公司，與統新同為台廠光通訊與精密光學用薄膜濾光片及光學鍍膜元件廠；年報亦列示東典光電為國內主要競爭對手。
  • Coherent 美國上市光電與光通訊元件大廠；統新年報與 MoneyDJ 資料列為國外競爭廠商，非台股掛牌。
  • Iridian Spectral Technologies 海外光學濾光片廠，MoneyDJ 資料列為競爭廠商；非台股掛牌。
  • 東田微 中國光學元件與濾光片相關廠商，券商資料列為競爭者之一；非台股掛牌。
  • 騰景科技 中國光學元件廠，券商資料列為競爭者之一；非台股掛牌。
Sources（8）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.