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Help me set up FinLab and analyze 6538 倉和. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=6538
6538
steady quality, premium valuation, no active signal today.
Is 倉和 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 70th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 1.8%.
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Valuation is high.PE is in the 90th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 98th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 3.4% of volume (net buy).
Chip flow
Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +50% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 國票-北高雄 has accumulated 347 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
- Main distributor 統一 peaked at 1,142 lots, has sold 34%, 754 left, ~23 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.01pp, mid holders +3, retail -3.91pp — concentration shifting upward.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -69 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 國票-北高雄 +347
- 永豐金證券 +335
- 康和 +324
- 富邦證券 +200
- 台新-大裕 +103
- 元大-和平 +85
Distributing
- 統一 754 left
- 國泰證券 94 left
- 台新 150 left
- 台灣摩根士丹利 131 left
- 凱基-台北 98 left
- 摩根大通 183 left
Desks
- 玉山-台南 -526
- 兆豐-板橋 -125
- 大昌 -88
- 國泰-板橋 -85
Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 357 | -27.8% | -32.3% | 5.9% | -45.5% |
| 20-40 | 286 | +15.3% | -16.3% | 38.8% | -8.3% |
| 40-60 | 255 | +34% | +29.8% | 53.3% | +23.7% |
| 60-80 | 144 | +26.8% | +31.3% | 66.7% | -1.7% |
| 80-100 You are here | 79 | -2.2% | -6.3% | 29.1% | -39.8% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 104.5, at the 97.8th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 139 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 18.9%, win rate 55.4%, beat the market by 6.7%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
12 times historically; 60-day forward avg +29%, win rate 72.7%, beating the market by +26.09 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
44 times historically; 60-day forward avg +22.56%, win rate 69.8%, beating the market by +17.81 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
28 times historically; 60-day forward avg -1.79%, win rate 42.3%, beating the market by -4.65 pts on average.
What does 倉和 do? Company profile
Overview
6538 對應證券為倉和，櫃買中心上櫃普通股。公司成立於 1994/04/01，總部/主要營運據點位於桃園市龜山區，官網列示台灣倉和、倉和精密製造（蘇州）有限公司、倉禾科技（成都）有限公司等據點。股票掛牌日為 2016/10/21，上櫃市場。董事長為陳柑富，總經理為林經洲；Yahoo 股市資料列示股本約新台幣 380,730,000 元、已發行普通股約 38,073,000 股，主要經營業務為網版製造與網印耗材買賣。公司登記/公開資料顯示代表人為陳柑富。主要董監事及經理人持股可見陳柑富、余百堂、鍾瑞嬌、林經洲等，但截至本研究可查資料未取得完整前十大股東名冊；員工總數也未在已擷取資料中取得可核對數字。
Business
倉和早期由印刷材料代理銷售轉型為高階精密網版製造商，核心產品為高精密、高印刷壽命、高解析度網版，並銷售網印、過濾、移印等耗材，另發展電子印刷代工服務，應用於太陽能電池、光電觸控、精密電子元件、印刷電路板、被動元件、生醫晶片、感測器等。太陽能為最重要應用：網版用於把導電銀漿印刷在矽晶片/電池片上，線寬越細、遮蔽面積越少，越有利轉換效率與銀漿成本控制。公司產品包括 CF 系列、高網目系列、鋼板系列、強化網布、3D 無網結、CF7、No Bridge 全開口網版等。2025 年第三季法說資料顯示 CF7 強調透墨、耐用度、印刷穩定性與電池片效率提升；No Bridge 採全開口設計，目標提高透墨率、降低銀漿用量，法說簡報稱整體省膠可達 20%、印刷線寬可進一步縮小至 6 微米。2025 年合併營收約新台幣 14.46 億元，較 2024 年下滑約 34.5%，合併稅後淨利約 0.43 億元、EPS 約 1.15 元；2024 年合併營收約 22.08 億元、EPS 9.23 元。歷史第三方整理曾以 2022 年資料估計精密網版約占營收 91%、耗材及設備代理約 9%，但此比例非最新官方分項，須保守看待。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025 年營運受全球太陽能光伏供應鏈產能過剩、中國市場價格競爭、客戶去庫存與銀價上漲影響，營收與獲利明顯下滑；公司說明 2025 年合併毛利率約 33%，低於 2024 年約 43%，主因經濟規模下降與產品價格競爭劇烈。2026 年公司看法偏向修復與技術升級：全球新增裝機量預估僅微幅成長，主要需求區域仍為中國、歐洲、美國、印度，其中法說簡報特別指出印度市場發展潛力最大；技術路線以 TOPCon 為主，Mono PERC 逐漸被取代，HJT 因成本較高成長動能不如預期，BC 因效率提升具未來機會。公司 2026 年策略聚焦高網目數、極細線化、3D 無網結、CF7 與 No Bridge，透過提升轉換效率與降低銀漿耗量拉開與競爭者差距，並持續優化 CF 系列製程、自動化、成本與品質。2027 年法說簡報列示太陽能端技術目標包括全開口鋼版、高網目網版、No Bridge 技術；非太陽能端包括軟性電子印刷、高精密電子印刷應用、醫療用感測器、先進通訊元件。2028 年未見公司公開量化財測；合理推估仍將沿太陽能細線化、大尺寸、高效率電池與非太陽能精密電子印刷延伸，但需面對中國同業追趕、專利仿製、太陽能供需循環、銀價與貿易關稅政策、客戶集中於海外太陽能製造鏈、價格內捲及新技術替代風險。
Supply Chain
- 達邁科技股份有限公司 3645 台股上櫃 PI 膜材料廠；倉和的雷射 PI 網版、複合材料與膜層技術需要 PI/高分子膜材供應，列為產業上游可能關聯，未確認為倉和指定供應商。
- 日本及中國網布、鋼網、感光材料與雷射設備供應商 精密網版製造所需上游包含網布、鋼網、乳劑/感光材料、PI 膜、雷射加工與自動化設備；公司公開資料未揭露完整供應商名單，故以產業類別描述。
- 碳纖維刮刀、無塵擦拭布及網印耗材供應鏈 倉和官網列示太陽能碳纖刮刀、無塵擦拭布等相關耗材；供應商未公開具名。
- 中國、印度、東北亞及東南亞太陽能電池製造商 倉和主要下游為太陽能電池製造商，使用精密網版印刷導電銀漿；公司與第三方資料描述客戶涵蓋中國大陸、東北亞、東南亞，2026 法說特別指出印度產能成長潛力，但未公開逐一客戶名單。
- 元晶太陽能科技股份有限公司 6443 台股上市太陽能電池/模組廠，屬倉和產品的產業下游應用族群；未確認為倉和現行客戶。
- 茂迪股份有限公司 6244 台股上市太陽能電池/模組相關廠，屬太陽能電池網版應用下游；未確認為倉和現行客戶。
- 被動元件、BGA、醫療感測器、軟性電子與先進通訊元件製造商 倉和法說將非太陽能高精密電子印刷應用列為拓展方向，包括被動元件 C-CHIP/L-CHIP/R-CHIP、BGA、醫療用感測器、軟性電子與 RF 模組等；具體客戶未公開。
Competitors
- 中國太陽能精密網版同業及仿製廠商 MoneyDJ 與市場報導指出倉和面臨中國同業仿製、價格競爭與技術追趕；未能從公司公開資料確認具名競爭者。
- 日本系及中國系傳統感光網版/高階網版供應商 屬太陽能與電子精密印刷網版競爭族群；倉和以 PI、雷射、3D 無網結、CF7、No Bridge 等技術差異化。
- 太陽能電池製程替代技術與設備供應商 若未來電極製程、金屬化技術或無銀/低銀方案改變，可能削弱傳統網版耗材需求；非單一上市櫃公司。
Sources（15）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.