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Help me set up FinLab and analyze 8101 華冠. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=8101
8101
quality needs a look, discounted valuation, no active signal today.
Is 華冠 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 5th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ -18.1%.
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Valuation is low.PE is in the 0th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 1th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -0.0% of volume (net sell).
Chip flow
Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -11% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 元大-天母 has accumulated 53 lots since the start (sold 0%), holding.
- Main distributor 凱基-東港 peaked at 18 lots, has sold 33%, 12 left, paused recently.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +2.38pp, mid holders +0, retail -2.06pp — concentration shifting upward.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -13 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 元大-天母 +53
- 兆豐-竹北 +40
- 台新-城中 +35
- 新光 +35
- 康和-內湖 +29
- 元大-北屯 +27
Distributing
- 凱基-東港 12 left
- 凱基-民權 5 left
- 華南永昌-世貿 1 left
- 美好-蘆洲 3 left
- 致和-東門 1 left
- 元大-北投 3 left
Desks
- 陽信 -101
- 元大-苑裡 -21
- 元大-崇德 -14
- 國泰-敦南 -13
Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 You are here | 0 | Insufficient data | |||
| 20-40 | 0 | Insufficient data | |||
| 40-60 | 0 | Insufficient data | |||
| 60-80 | 66 | -89.1% | -89.1% | 0% | -201% |
| 80-100 | 50 | -89.1% | -89% | 0% | -230.5% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 1.47, at the 1.4th percentile of its own history (0-20 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
(16d)
(0d)
(20d)
(28d)
Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 61 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 10%, win rate 0%, lagged the market by 9.5%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
11 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.71%, win rate 27.3%, beating the market by +1.56 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
81 times historically; 60-day forward avg -3.74%, win rate 36.8%, beating the market by -6.25 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
27 times historically; 60-day forward avg -8.51%, win rate 18.5%, beating the market by -10.95 pts on average.
What does 華冠 do? Company profile
Overview
華冠通訊成立於1999年8月24日，1999年11月11日公開發行，2003年5月12日興櫃，2004年7月1日上市；總部位於台北市內湖區瑞光路258巷2號7樓，統一編號70747852，電話02-26587718，網站www.arimacomm.com.tw。資料源對高階經理人與資本額存在版本差異：較新的市場資料顯示董事長為李森田、總經理為何文魁，實收資本額約新台幣5.22億元、發行股數52,166,216股；鉅亨網較舊或未完全更新頁面列總經理為周照程、資本額728,310,780元；Yahoo 2025/05資料列股本326,662,160元。主要股東依公開資料彙整包含華森生化科技股份有限公司、李森田、華宇光能股份有限公司、英業達股份有限公司等；其中英業達為台股上市公司2356。公司曾於2024年股東會討論高比例減資彌補虧損，投保中心指出截至2023年底累積虧損650,509仟元，並提醒需落實健全營運計畫。員工規模未在可查公開網頁中明確揭露。
Business
公司早期定位為手機與行動手持裝置設計代工廠，提供ODM、OEM、JDM服務，涵蓋手機、平板、行動手持裝置設計、製造、後勤維修與配送；主要經營登記項目為無線通信機械器材、電信管制射頻器材、電子零組件之製造及銷售。MoneyDJ資料顯示2024年產品營收佔比為商品銷售94%、勞務提供6%，銷售地區亞洲59%、美洲41%；重要原料包含IC、LCM、機殼、PCB、電池、振盪器、按鍵等，生產基地包含鶯歌廠、大陸吳江廠與印尼廠。2025年法說摘要顯示公司轉型後核心業務分為四大類：專業級無人機、大型單旋翼直升機與VTOL垂直起降固定翼；射頻產品，包含與中科院合作之SSPA、AESA TRM、PESA接收模組，以及77GHz毫米波雷達模組；AIoT智慧停車柱與AI車牌辨識模組；印尼雅加達EMS代工，代工智慧型手機、平板、Mi-Fi、路由器、機上盒等，主要客戶提及傳音旗下Infinix/itel、SHARP、TCL等。2025年前三季營收約3.06億元，成長主因為印尼EMS業務貢獻，但因無人機研發與新事業投入仍處虧損。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025年公司處於由傳統通訊代工轉向無人機、射頻軍工、AIoT與印尼EMS的轉型期；2025年前三季營收顯著回升、毛利轉正，但仍有營業虧損與淨損，財務結構與現金流仍是關鍵觀察。2026年公司法說摘要指出最大營收成長動能預期來自無人機，並受惠國內國防、海巡與公務單位未來2至3年無人機標案，以及印尼工廠產能擴充與TKDN本地製造政策。2027至2028年展望屬推估：若大型單旋翼、VTOL、軍規標案與海外農業/救災應用順利導入，產品組合可由低毛利手機EMS轉向較高附加價值系統整合；若標案時程延後、認證不順、量產良率不足、資金募集不及、關鍵零組件供應受限或競爭者降價，則轉型成效與財務改善會延後。主要風險包括：過去連續虧損與減資紀錄、曾因繼續經營能力重大不確定性被列入變更交易方法並停止買賣、私募與股本變動造成股東稀釋、無人機與軍工業務前期研發費用高、印尼EMS受客戶集中與匯率/政策影響、以及手機代工產業競爭激烈。
Supply Chain
- IC、LCM、機殼、PCB、電池、振盪器、按鍵等原料供應商 MoneyDJ列為華冠主要原物料類別，但未揭露具名供應商；因此不指定台股供應商代號。
- 無人機飛控、光學酬載、圖傳、動力系統與射頻零組件供應鏈 法說摘要顯示公司正建立台灣本地無人機供應鏈並自主開發關鍵子系統；具名供應商未公開。
- 印尼製造基地相關零組件與EMS供應鏈 印尼工廠服務手機、平板、Mi-Fi、路由器與機上盒代工；上游具名供應商未公開。
- 傳音控股（Infinix、itel） 印尼EMS代工客戶；傳音為中國A股上市公司，非台股掛牌。
- SHARP 印尼EMS代工客戶；日本企業，非台股掛牌。
- TCL 印尼EMS代工客戶；中國/香港相關上市集團，非台股掛牌。
- 國家中山科學研究院 射頻軍工合作對象，提供國防等級射頻模組應用；非上市櫃法人。
- 台灣國防、海巡與公務單位 無人機與公務應用潛在標案客戶；非上市櫃公司。
- 停車場營運商與政府智慧停車專案 AIoT智慧停車柱與AI車牌辨識模組之合作通路與終端應用；具名客戶未公開。
Competitors
- 鴻海精密工業股份有限公司 2317 MoneyDJ列為國內外競爭廠商之一；大型EMS/手機與電子產品代工競爭者。
- 仁寶電腦工業股份有限公司 2324 MoneyDJ列為競爭廠商之一；通訊與行動裝置代工競爭者。
- 佳世達科技股份有限公司 2352 MoneyDJ列為競爭廠商之一；電子製造與系統整合競爭者。
- 和碩聯合科技股份有限公司 4938 MoneyDJ列為競爭廠商之一；手機、通訊與電子代工競爭者。
- 華寶通訊 MoneyDJ列為競爭廠商之一；歷史手機ODM競爭者，已非獨立台股上市公司。
- 雷虎科技股份有限公司 8033 台股無人機與航太相關公司，為華冠轉型無人機業務的台股可比公司；非MoneyDJ原列手機代工競爭名單。
- 經緯航太科技股份有限公司 興櫃航太/無人機相關公司，與華冠專業無人機布局具可比性；非上市櫃代號但為台灣公開市場掛牌興櫃公司。
Sources（9）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.